3 ms·

How can the future burst? It's like saying medicine will burst or physics

by arisAlexis 6y ago

lainga 6y ago
I don't know, expert systems haven't been so hot lately...
- arisAlexis 6y ago
  It's very surprising what people with downvote power do but it's *** to downvote anyone that disagrees. Anyway expert systems were a precursor to the technology and they got replaced much like new physics replace old physics.
  - ASalazarMX 6y ago
    Disagreeing doesn't mean you're right. AI is not equivalent to the future, and it will burst if it stalls and another AI winter cools the current hype cycle.
  - jefft255 6y ago
    It's because you made a false analogy. AI isn't literally "the future". Billions of $ are being invested in deep-learning focused AI right now (which you call "the future"), and yes it could be a bubble and it could burst. You can disagree, but it's still a sensible thing to predict.
    - arisAlexis 6y ago
      By bursting you mean humanity will never create artificial intelligence? Or you mean that there will be a cool off period as for example what happened with quantum physics at some point? Because it sure looks to me that there is no future without AI regardless of cool off periods. That makes my statement true. If you think humanity will never progress from where we are now then we pretty much are on very opposite schools of thought.
      - jefft255 6y ago
        I agree with you, but I also think that the current wave of investment is in fact a bubble that will burst. See, I truly believe that AI will be an important part of our future. What you call a cool off, I call a bubble burst, which it is when the cool off involves investors losing tons of money they bet on deep learning.
      - frostburg 6y ago
        The point being discussed here is that the current approaches (and those investing in them) might fail to yield any further significant advance.
mattkrause 6y ago
Same way as the last time: rampant over-promising and under-delivering, maybe catalyzed by some high profile mishaps. Bubbles popping aren’t always evaluations of the objective quality of something; it could just be about its assumed value relative to other plausible options. Homes mostly don’t become uninhabitable when a real estate bubble pops.
foobiekr 6y ago
Personalized medicine, as an example, absolutely burst.
imtringued 6y ago
Right now everyone is betting that you can solve all problems just by throwing enough hardware at the problem. It's attractive for investors because they get to use their fat stacks of cash and corner the market but if this bet doesn't work out then we will have to go back to the drawing board and figure out how to build NNs efficiently and investors are not interested in this at all. They just want to launch a product as quickly as possible.

How can the future burst? It's like saying medicine will burst or physics

lainga 6y ago

I don't know, expert systems haven't been so hot lately...

arisAlexis 6y ago
It's very surprising what people with downvote power do but it's *** to downvote anyone that disagrees. Anyway expert systems were a precursor to the technology and they got replaced much like new physics replace old physics.
- ASalazarMX 6y ago
  Disagreeing doesn't mean you're right. AI is not equivalent to the future, and it will burst if it stalls and another AI winter cools the current hype cycle.
- jefft255 6y ago
  It's because you made a false analogy. AI isn't literally "the future". Billions of $ are being invested in deep-learning focused AI right now (which you call "the future"), and yes it could be a bubble and it could burst. You can disagree, but it's still a sensible thing to predict.
  - arisAlexis 6y ago
    By bursting you mean humanity will never create artificial intelligence? Or you mean that there will be a cool off period as for example what happened with quantum physics at some point? Because it sure looks to me that there is no future without AI regardless of cool off periods. That makes my statement true. If you think humanity will never progress from where we are now then we pretty much are on very opposite schools of thought.
    - jefft255 6y ago
      I agree with you, but I also think that the current wave of investment is in fact a bubble that will burst. See, I truly believe that AI will be an important part of our future. What you call a cool off, I call a bubble burst, which it is when the cool off involves investors losing tons of money they bet on deep learning.
    - frostburg 6y ago
      The point being discussed here is that the current approaches (and those investing in them) might fail to yield any further significant advance.

mattkrause 6y ago

Same way as the last time: rampant over-promising and under-delivering, maybe catalyzed by some high profile mishaps. Bubbles popping aren’t always evaluations of the objective quality of something; it could just be about its assumed value relative to other plausible options. Homes mostly don’t become uninhabitable when a real estate bubble pops.

foobiekr 6y ago

Personalized medicine, as an example, absolutely burst.

imtringued 6y ago

Right now everyone is betting that you can solve all problems just by throwing enough hardware at the problem. It's attractive for investors because they get to use their fat stacks of cash and corner the market but if this bet doesn't work out then we will have to go back to the drawing board and figure out how to build NNs efficiently and investors are not interested in this at all. They just want to launch a product as quickly as possible.