5 ms·

Why does the data change so much on the boundaries of states? I would expect the data to be locally correlated, and there wouldn't be discrepancies between nei

Why does the data change so much on the boundaries of states? I would expect the data to be locally correlated, and there wouldn't be discrepancies between neighboring rural counties that are in different states.

ch4s3 6y ago
I think some states have pretty distinct cultures and politics. But if you look ad Kentucky and West Virginia, you'll have trouble finding the border. There are also effects here around metro areas.
whatgoodisaroad 6y ago
Good question. It's less pronounced than Wyoming, but I wonder why Alabama looks so different from its neighbors.
jp57 6y ago
My thought exactly. If you took out the borders, many states would still be visible. I would expect the boundary between Tennessee and Kentucky, for example, to be more-or-less invisible, as between Texas and Arkansas. But even Oklahoma is distinguishable from northern Texas, despite basically no cultural or political difference across the Red River.
renewiltord 6y ago
Very good point. I wonder if there are local state policies in effect that artifact the data or if there is some sort of state-level estimator being used.
adamrezich 6y ago
people live in cities/towns/etc. which are exist in counties which exist in states. the data is per-county. vaccination policies/attitudes are largely defined by governors, who lead states. states often have a shared culture, but sometimes different parts of states have varying cultures. often, population density affects culture/attitudes toward these sorts of things. as with many such maps, adding an additional analysis layer denoting population density would yield interesting results. (though if you intuitively know the population densities of various "outlier" states, and you know where major cities are in the lesser-populated states, you can already intuitively draw some correlations yourself.)
vladislav 6y ago
The model probably takes into account the state as a variable, and states vary as far as average hesitancy goes and in terms of vaccine distribution strategy.
TechBro8615 6y ago
Could be sampling discrepancies? I’m no statistician but I would assume there’s a good chance it’s due to the modeling rather than an actual reality.
nojito 6y ago
Because they use state level data first. Methodology here. https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-19/cnd2-a6zw/ https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-1...
- fallingfrog 6y ago
  Ah ok. So we are looking at pretty large inaccuracies then. Typically you only want to draw in the county boundaries if you have reliable county level data. I’d call that a flaw.
throwaway0a5e 6y ago
There's got to be something substantially skewing the data. Even just looking at counties I'm familiar with it doesn't pass the sniff test. You've got the "hicks live here" county that's the same color as the "yuppies buy houses in these suburbs" county that's the same color as the "not much English gets spoken here" county and so on. And yet it's all different than the adjacent counties that happen to be across state lines that have similar demographics.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
psychometry 6y ago
https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/265341/vaccine-hesitancy-COVID-19-Methodology.pdf https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/265341/vaccine-hesitan... "State of residence" was a predictor in their linear model. A person's state (and its government) will probably affect the outcome variable to some extend, so it's not really surprising that it might be retained as a significant term. However, I find it hard to believe it's so important. I wonder if that predictor is simply confounded with some unobserved variable relating to methods of surveying that differed by state.
- adamrezich 6y ago
  why are people so quick to wish away the concept of state lines? if there were no (or less) obviously visible state lines in the data, and everything was more of a gradient, I would be immensely surprised.
  - disgruntledphd2 6y ago
    Sure, but one wouldn't imagine them to be so sharp. It's probably an artifact of the aggregation up to county level.
fallingfrog 6y ago
Yep, came here to say the same thing. Perhaps, there is some difference in the way the states are conducting vaccination campaigns?

ch4s3 6y ago

I think some states have pretty distinct cultures and politics. But if you look ad Kentucky and West Virginia, you'll have trouble finding the border. There are also effects here around metro areas.

whatgoodisaroad 6y ago

Good question. It's less pronounced than Wyoming, but I wonder why Alabama looks so different from its neighbors.

jp57 6y ago

My thought exactly. If you took out the borders, many states would still be visible. I would expect the boundary between Tennessee and Kentucky, for example, to be more-or-less invisible, as between Texas and Arkansas. But even Oklahoma is distinguishable from northern Texas, despite basically no cultural or political difference across the Red River.

renewiltord 6y ago

Very good point. I wonder if there are local state policies in effect that artifact the data or if there is some sort of state-level estimator being used.

adamrezich 6y ago

people live in cities/towns/etc. which are exist in counties which exist in states. the data is per-county. vaccination policies/attitudes are largely defined by governors, who lead states. states often have a shared culture, but sometimes different parts of states have varying cultures. often, population density affects culture/attitudes toward these sorts of things. as with many such maps, adding an additional analysis layer denoting population density would yield interesting results. (though if you intuitively know the population densities of various "outlier" states, and you know where major cities are in the lesser-populated states, you can already intuitively draw some correlations yourself.)

vladislav 6y ago

The model probably takes into account the state as a variable, and states vary as far as average hesitancy goes and in terms of vaccine distribution strategy.

TechBro8615 6y ago

Could be sampling discrepancies? I’m no statistician but I would assume there’s a good chance it’s due to the modeling rather than an actual reality.

nojito 6y ago

Because they use state level data first. Methodology here. https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-19/cnd2-a6zw/ https://data.cdc.gov/stories/s/Vaccine-Hesitancy-for-COVID-1...

fallingfrog 6y ago
Ah ok. So we are looking at pretty large inaccuracies then. Typically you only want to draw in the county boundaries if you have reliable county level data. I’d call that a flaw.

throwaway0a5e 6y ago

There's got to be something substantially skewing the data. Even just looking at counties I'm familiar with it doesn't pass the sniff test. You've got the "hicks live here" county that's the same color as the "yuppies buy houses in these suburbs" county that's the same color as the "not much English gets spoken here" county and so on. And yet it's all different than the adjacent counties that happen to be across state lines that have similar demographics.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

psychometry 6y ago

https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/265341/vaccine-hesitancy-COVID-19-Methodology.pdf https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/pdf/265341/vaccine-hesitan... "State of residence" was a predictor in their linear model. A person's state (and its government) will probably affect the outcome variable to some extend, so it's not really surprising that it might be retained as a significant term. However, I find it hard to believe it's so important. I wonder if that predictor is simply confounded with some unobserved variable relating to methods of surveying that differed by state.

adamrezich 6y ago
why are people so quick to wish away the concept of state lines? if there were no (or less) obviously visible state lines in the data, and everything was more of a gradient, I would be immensely surprised.
- disgruntledphd2 6y ago
  Sure, but one wouldn't imagine them to be so sharp. It's probably an artifact of the aggregation up to county level.

fallingfrog 6y ago

Yep, came here to say the same thing. Perhaps, there is some difference in the way the states are conducting vaccination campaigns?