4 ms·

We need more data on what prices really are. things like the big mac index, that measure prices independently and actually report just the prices, without qual

We need more data on what prices really are. things like the big mac index, that measure prices independently and actually report just the prices, without quality adjustments. This will give us a good upper bound on what inflation actually is, instead of having to rely on the CPI's questionable "adjustments"

svachalek 5y ago
Shadowstats tracks the inflation numbers using the government's old formulas (pre-gaming) http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
- fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
  These numbers don’t seem plausible. Compared to nominal GDP statistics, they would imply negative real growth since 1980. This is incompatible with some periods of low unemployment that occurred since 1980 (eg. the late 90s). It implies that the US has constantly been in a recession for decades. Also conflicts with other hard-to fake stats like increased power generation and freight shipping since 1980. Edit: found this quote from the creator of Shadowstats that they don’t actually calculate their own inflation numbers, but instead add a fudge factor to the official numbers. http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res
  - bondarchuk 5y ago
    Wow, thanks for digging that up, shines a very different light on the shadowstats site which gets thrown around a lot (and I'm guilty as well..).
    - chii 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist... very easy to lie with stats sometimes.
FredPret 5y ago
Technological improvements make this so hard to measure, even if we ignore the temptation to game the numbers. New products, better products, many old products replaced by new ones... it’s so much more complicated than the classical economics textbook case of guns & butter.

svachalek 5y ago

Shadowstats tracks the inflation numbers using the government's old formulas (pre-gaming) http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

fshbbdssbbgdd 5y ago
These numbers don’t seem plausible. Compared to nominal GDP statistics, they would imply negative real growth since 1980. This is incompatible with some periods of low unemployment that occurred since 1980 (eg. the late 90s). It implies that the US has constantly been in a recession for decades. Also conflicts with other hard-to fake stats like increased power generation and freight shipping since 1980. Edit: found this quote from the creator of Shadowstats that they don’t actually calculate their own inflation numbers, but instead add a fudge factor to the official numbers. http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res
- bondarchuk 5y ago
  Wow, thanks for digging that up, shines a very different light on the shadowstats site which gets thrown around a lot (and I'm guilty as well..).
  - chii 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statist... very easy to lie with stats sometimes.

FredPret 5y ago

Technological improvements make this so hard to measure, even if we ignore the temptation to game the numbers. New products, better products, many old products replaced by new ones... it’s so much more complicated than the classical economics textbook case of guns & butter.