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"Buyers are competing against other buyers with seemingly unlimited cash offers. " So this should be the alarm bell that contradicts the argument. In 2008 the

"Buyers are competing against other buyers with seemingly unlimited cash offers. " So this should be the alarm bell that contradicts the argument. In 2008 the Fed took what was then seen as a 'generational' bump in assets on it's balance sheet, namely bad real estate, effectively bailing out banks and home-owners, and arguably exasperating inequality. But the money printing going due to COVID has dwarfed everything, to the point of multi-generational consequence, and what we might argue is a 'New Financial World Order'. The Central Bank realignment due to COVID may be as significant as the start/end of Bretto-Woods etc. because the degree of social intervention is on an unimaginable scale. Aside from the 'raw numbers' it means social intervention and governmental direction of the economy like we have not seen since WW2 but this time without the obvious and easy infrastructural and educational adjustments to make: in the 1950's there were no highways - so they got build, and nobody had College degrees so getting former Officers/NCO's into College was a no-brainer. Interest rates have been going down, and historically lower since the end of Bretton Woods, and they are now in the range of where it's causing considerable strain with massive leveraging, negative central bank overnight rates etc.. The result of this is a 'primary driver' of the Housing Boom, and it's the same thing happening in almost all asset class. Or in other words: we are playing flirting dangerously with real, scary inflation, it's just happening in our homes so we think it's all good. COVID has caused us to 'look the other way' with regards to financial reality, which is understandable, but that can't go on forever. I am not a supporter of Crypto, BTC or any of the like, and I generally loathe the anti-fiat fanaticism etc. because I don't think these arguments are data driven or made in good faith, however, COVID has brought a lot of credibility to the fiat debauching concerns. Housing prices are one element of that.

UncleOxidant 6y ago
> Or in other words: we are playing flirting dangerously with real, scary inflation, it's just happening in our homes so we think it's all good. Home prices have gone up way more than incomes over the last 10 years. Economists don't seem to want to call it inflation until incomes are rising. I'm glad I bought a house for $180K in 2011 that's worth $360K now 10 years later, but I really wonder how folks who are entering the market now are able to deal with the much higher monthly payment. That's going to divert spending away from other parts of the economy for quite a while.
- gruez 6y ago
  >Home prices and rents have gone up way more than incomes over the last 10 years Home prices, maybe. But rents (aka housing)? AFAIK it's kept pretty consistent: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cpi2020-875x1024.png?x91208 https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cpi2020-875x1...
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    Depends on location. I was charging $850/mo for a detached 3BR/2BA house in 2010. I'm charging $1500/mo for the same now - and I could easily be charging $1800/mo, but I like the renters and don't want to lose them.
    - pnutjam 6y ago
      Looking at an old lease of mine, in 2007 I paid $959 for this 3bd/B style. Now they are at least $1360. https://www.sunblest.com/floorplans.aspx https://www.sunblest.com/floorplans.aspx These are the best value apartments in this area. The new ones they built down the street have a $3300 list price for a 3bd. This is an affordable midwest area.
      - deleted 6y ago
        [deleted]
      - pnutjam 6y ago
        To clarify, the raise is about 8% over the regular inflation rate. The bigger issue is the fact that all new stuff is not significantly different or better, but almost 3 times the price. The floor is falling out.
    - castlecrasher2 6y ago
      >I was charging $850/mo for a detached 3BR/2BA house in 2010. Out of curiosity, what was the comparable rent in 2005/before the crash in 2008?
  - putnambr 6y ago
treesrule 6y ago
Joe Wiesenthal on twitter sometimes has some good anti-anti-fait shtick. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart https://twitter.com/TheStalwart

UncleOxidant 6y ago

> Or in other words: we are playing flirting dangerously with real, scary inflation, it's just happening in our homes so we think it's all good. Home prices have gone up way more than incomes over the last 10 years. Economists don't seem to want to call it inflation until incomes are rising. I'm glad I bought a house for $180K in 2011 that's worth $360K now 10 years later, but I really wonder how folks who are entering the market now are able to deal with the much higher monthly payment. That's going to divert spending away from other parts of the economy for quite a while.

gruez 6y ago
>Home prices and rents have gone up way more than incomes over the last 10 years Home prices, maybe. But rents (aka housing)? AFAIK it's kept pretty consistent: https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cpi2020-875x1024.png?x91208 https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/cpi2020-875x1...
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Depends on location. I was charging $850/mo for a detached 3BR/2BA house in 2010. I'm charging $1500/mo for the same now - and I could easily be charging $1800/mo, but I like the renters and don't want to lose them.
  - pnutjam 6y ago
    Looking at an old lease of mine, in 2007 I paid $959 for this 3bd/B style. Now they are at least $1360. https://www.sunblest.com/floorplans.aspx https://www.sunblest.com/floorplans.aspx These are the best value apartments in this area. The new ones they built down the street have a $3300 list price for a 3bd. This is an affordable midwest area.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - pnutjam 6y ago
      To clarify, the raise is about 8% over the regular inflation rate. The bigger issue is the fact that all new stuff is not significantly different or better, but almost 3 times the price. The floor is falling out.
  - castlecrasher2 6y ago
    >I was charging $850/mo for a detached 3BR/2BA house in 2010. Out of curiosity, what was the comparable rent in 2005/before the crash in 2008?
- putnambr 6y ago

treesrule 6y ago

Joe Wiesenthal on twitter sometimes has some good anti-anti-fait shtick. https://twitter.com/TheStalwart https://twitter.com/TheStalwart