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In my opinion, we are in a bubble now. In stocks, P/E ratios are extremely high, and many companies are IPOing, many more than two years ago. All asset pricing

In my opinion, we are in a bubble now. In stocks, P/E ratios are extremely high, and many companies are IPOing, many more than two years ago. All asset pricing is going through the roof, and money is chasing money. Speculative assets have become trendy again with cryptocurrencies, ARK, and memes like dogecoin. We're all flush with cash and either terrified of inflation or riding a euphoria of asset inflation.

lotsofpulp 5y ago
> either terrified of inflation or riding a euphoria of asset inflation. Why not both? At this point, the biggest risk I see is a materials shortage that the Fed can’t fix by adding zeros in a database. Such as gas prices spiking, or food shortages, or some other critical infrastructure failing.
- Supermancho 5y ago
  The lumber shortage is forcing homes to be built largely with pressed wood. Ironically this makes home building even more expensive, as pressed wood prices have skyrocketed... passing traditional lumber because of availability issues.
fumar 5y ago
What do you do to prepare for a crash? I follow the asset and commodity price increases. But, I can't see the next logical step. Save more money that is worth less over time? Are we on a train towards hyperinflation that can't be stopped?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- nicbou 5y ago
  Traditional advice is to park your money in goods with intrinsic value. I believe that the common examples are housing and gold.
strgcmc 5y ago
On the point about IPOs, this would seem to back up the idea that, a boom in IPOs has correlated with recessions and crashes soon after, in the past ~20 years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/270290/number-of-ipos-in-the-us-since-1999/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/270290/number-of-ipos-in... A drop in IPOs seems like a lagging indicator (they will drop off after the economy has cooled off), but it's not clear to me if a boom in IPOs is a leading indicator or not.

lotsofpulp 5y ago

> either terrified of inflation or riding a euphoria of asset inflation. Why not both? At this point, the biggest risk I see is a materials shortage that the Fed can’t fix by adding zeros in a database. Such as gas prices spiking, or food shortages, or some other critical infrastructure failing.

Supermancho 5y ago
The lumber shortage is forcing homes to be built largely with pressed wood. Ironically this makes home building even more expensive, as pressed wood prices have skyrocketed... passing traditional lumber because of availability issues.

fumar 5y ago

What do you do to prepare for a crash? I follow the asset and commodity price increases. But, I can't see the next logical step. Save more money that is worth less over time? Are we on a train towards hyperinflation that can't be stopped?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nicbou 5y ago
Traditional advice is to park your money in goods with intrinsic value. I believe that the common examples are housing and gold.

strgcmc 5y ago

On the point about IPOs, this would seem to back up the idea that, a boom in IPOs has correlated with recessions and crashes soon after, in the past ~20 years: https://www.statista.com/statistics/270290/number-of-ipos-in-the-us-since-1999/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/270290/number-of-ipos-in... A drop in IPOs seems like a lagging indicator (they will drop off after the economy has cooled off), but it's not clear to me if a boom in IPOs is a leading indicator or not.