3 ms·

I don't believe those are the only choices.

trhway 6y ago
Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.
- liaukovv 6y ago
  Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
  - lb1lf 6y ago
    -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
    - baybal2 6y ago
      > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
      - sudosysgen 6y ago
        No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
        baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        You are incorrect. Russia only has 3000 tanks in service. The rest are mothballed. That's not half, that's 75+%. Even looking in total, the vast majority of these "12 000" tanks are in fact T-72s, 9000 of them. We already know how T-72s fare against modern tanks. For sure, 3000 decent MBTs is a formidable force. But 3000 vs 1000 is not going to let Russia steamroll when their air force is set-up for defence and not offense. Even an advantage of 3:1 is not going to do you much good when your opponent has absolute air supremacy. A Russian offensive into Western Europe will definitely get stalled, there is no question about it.
      - splistud 6y ago
        You have no concept of what it takes to project power
- fakedang 6y ago
  EU and NATO will not let Belarus in because of a long standing agreement.
- sudosysgen 6y ago
  The important thing about drone warfare campaigns is that they are only successful if the enemy is unwilling to challenge your air supremacy over your own territory. This is the case in Ukraine right now and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia is unwilling, right now, to challenge all of Ukrainian airspace, and Armenia/Russia was unwilling to challenge Azerbaijani airspace. The moment this change is when the drone strategy is no longer effective. Drones only work when you have air supremacy over at least a staging area. When you do not, then there is not much to do. Also, Russia has it's own drones, which they are not using because they are in the defensive position right now. If there is a prompt for a Russian advancement or if the line becomes untenable, the drone-based strategies will collapse and the conflict will turn unless Ukraine can muster up something else. Simply put, Ukraine has no hope at all of contesting air supremacy with Russia. It's air force is incomparably worse, and drones have no anti-air capacity. But we are not there. Russia is nowhere near attempting a full-scale invasion and hasn't, they limited themselves to taking the Donbass and Crimea and defending it strictly, more or less. As for Russia in Armenia, there was not really any cake-on-the-face. Russia's policy was to stand-by unless Azerbaijan was threatening Armenia proper. Maybe Armenia could have negotiated another arrangement had their orientation been different, but as it stood Russia was unwilling to do much at all in the NK conflict. As it stands the balance of power is still overwhelmingly in the favor of Russia and it is not close.
  - adventured 6y ago
    It's strange that any of this is up for discussion. If Russia wants Ukraine, they're going to take it. Ukraine has no ability to fight with Russia. NATO isn't going to do anything directly (they'll push some weapons into Ukraine, that's it). What's going to happen is that Russia will slice Ukraine at the Dnieper River and also take all of Ukraine's Black Sea territory. That will include taking Odsesa and Kharkiv. By taking the territory south of Odesa, they'll get a large border with Moldova, and then they'll annex Moldova at some point or otherwise entirely control it as a puppet. There is no scenario where this doesn't happen. When Putin took Crimea, taking the rest of Ukraine's coastal waters was an obvious and inevitable step. The only thing left is timing, whenever Putin decides an ideal time to do it is. There's nothing the West can do to Russia at this point to stop any of this and Putin knows that. No nation in the West is going to war with Russia over these lands.

Because of the history in those places, new Belarus will immediately try to join EU and NATO. That is an option which Russia will try to prevent. As history shows there are some windows of opportunity for the things to go either way. It seems that the major escalation is coming in Donbass - Ukraine has beefed up the forces, and in particular brought in the Turkish drones which (being very successful against Russian made tanks and air defenses) provided for the recent blitzkrieg in Azerbaijan (and the very cake-in-the-face moment for Russia who supported Armenia in that war), and Russia has massed up large force on the Donbass border - which would probably result in large involvement and losses for Russia, and that may be the window of opportunity for the things to quickly change. Of course it may also be a last stand nothing to lose moment for Russia and it will just force its way in Belarus.

liaukovv 6y ago
Maybe in the face of growing russian agression nato will relax it's rules.
- lb1lf 6y ago
  -More likely, rules will toughen up. The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence; no-one wants to be forced into a shooting war - hence I expect NATO to be very wary of accepting a member which may invoke article 5 pretty much the moment the accession ceremony is over. The Ukraine would have a much easier time getting into NATO if relations with Russia were cordial; however, as the mere act of exercising their sovereignty to join an alliance of their choosing is sufficient to prevent cordial relations with Russia... The problem, obviously, being that Russia is not content to be secure within its borders, but also desires to have a say in the affairs of neighbouring countries (Which, incidentally, makes these countries feel much less secure, hence making them more eager to join alliances to improve their lot, precisely the scenario Russia wishes to avoid.) Sigh.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    > The prime purpose of NATO is deterrence There is no point of deterrence when if Ukraine is gone, and you have Russian tanks in Vienna in one week, Munich the other, and the rest of Europe in a month.
    - sudosysgen 6y ago
      No, you will not. Russia cannot invade Vienna or Munich. Germany, France and Italy are each powerful enough to stall the Russian offensive. Russia will not even attempt it. Ukraine in comparison has a miserably weak military that is strongly outdated compared to Russia.
      - baybal2 6y ago
        You think so? How much tanks does Germany have, and how much does Russia? I will do Googling for you. 354 vs 12000 Russia's tank force biggest problem? Having more tanks than pilots. Half of this tank fleet is in long term storage for this reason, and what's left half is in rather bad semi-written-off condition. If we let Russians to regain their breathe, it would not take them long to restore them, and regain this enormous military asset.
        sudosysgen 6y ago
        You are incorrect. Russia only has 3000 tanks in service. The rest are mothballed. That's not half, that's 75+%. Even looking in total, the vast majority of these "12 000" tanks are in fact T-72s, 9000 of them. We already know how T-72s fare against modern tanks. For sure, 3000 decent MBTs is a formidable force. But 3000 vs 1000 is not going to let Russia steamroll when their air force is set-up for defence and not offense. Even an advantage of 3:1 is not going to do you much good when your opponent has absolute air supremacy. A Russian offensive into Western Europe will definitely get stalled, there is no question about it.
    - splistud 6y ago
      You have no concept of what it takes to project power
fakedang 6y ago
EU and NATO will not let Belarus in because of a long standing agreement.
sudosysgen 6y ago
The important thing about drone warfare campaigns is that they are only successful if the enemy is unwilling to challenge your air supremacy over your own territory. This is the case in Ukraine right now and in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Russia is unwilling, right now, to challenge all of Ukrainian airspace, and Armenia/Russia was unwilling to challenge Azerbaijani airspace. The moment this change is when the drone strategy is no longer effective. Drones only work when you have air supremacy over at least a staging area. When you do not, then there is not much to do. Also, Russia has it's own drones, which they are not using because they are in the defensive position right now. If there is a prompt for a Russian advancement or if the line becomes untenable, the drone-based strategies will collapse and the conflict will turn unless Ukraine can muster up something else. Simply put, Ukraine has no hope at all of contesting air supremacy with Russia. It's air force is incomparably worse, and drones have no anti-air capacity. But we are not there. Russia is nowhere near attempting a full-scale invasion and hasn't, they limited themselves to taking the Donbass and Crimea and defending it strictly, more or less. As for Russia in Armenia, there was not really any cake-on-the-face. Russia's policy was to stand-by unless Azerbaijan was threatening Armenia proper. Maybe Armenia could have negotiated another arrangement had their orientation been different, but as it stood Russia was unwilling to do much at all in the NK conflict. As it stands the balance of power is still overwhelmingly in the favor of Russia and it is not close.
- adventured 6y ago
  It's strange that any of this is up for discussion. If Russia wants Ukraine, they're going to take it. Ukraine has no ability to fight with Russia. NATO isn't going to do anything directly (they'll push some weapons into Ukraine, that's it). What's going to happen is that Russia will slice Ukraine at the Dnieper River and also take all of Ukraine's Black Sea territory. That will include taking Odsesa and Kharkiv. By taking the territory south of Odesa, they'll get a large border with Moldova, and then they'll annex Moldova at some point or otherwise entirely control it as a puppet. There is no scenario where this doesn't happen. When Putin took Crimea, taking the rest of Ukraine's coastal waters was an obvious and inevitable step. The only thing left is timing, whenever Putin decides an ideal time to do it is. There's nothing the West can do to Russia at this point to stop any of this and Putin knows that. No nation in the West is going to war with Russia over these lands.