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India’s second wave
- corty 6y agoPaywall.
- ls15 6y agohttps://archive.is/VYm6A https://archive.is/VYm6A
- molsson 6y agoIt would be nice if the web somehow filtered out links that one had decided to not pay for.
- the_other 6y agoNo it wouldn't.
- mellosouls 6y agoHN Guidelines are links should not be submitted if there is not a freely available version, or at least the wording is "It's ok to post stories from sites with paywalls that have workarounds", which implies that. It would be nice if OPs took more effort to post the non-paywalled alternative (in addition to the original) to avoid these discussions and complaints. Yes, I am aware complaining about paywalls is OT. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html
- voisin 6y agoSeems like a worthwhile Chrome extension. Or to replace all paywall links with the internet archive link?
- dang 6y agoIf there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html and there's more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=paywalls%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989
- rataata_jr 6y agoNot leading to deaths, but just increasing case numbers, that is good news.
- throwaway4good 6y agoHow reliable are the numbers coming out of India? Test positivity rates of 15% would suggest under-reporting / under-testing.
- thecleaner 6y agoWhat are you talking about ? A random sample with positivity rate of 20percent would indicate one in 5 has covid. Why are you posting such conspiratorial comments with a throwaway account ?
- dang 6y agoWould you please stop posting in the flamewar style to HN? You've been doing it repeatedly and we ban such accounts. Please don't attack fellow users and please omit swipes like "What are you talking about" from your comments here. If another comment is wrong, it suffices to reply with accurate information. Actually it's much more credible that way. If you toss in gratuitous swipes, you discredit the accurate information you're (by hypothesis) adding, which is bad for the truth. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- thecleaner 6y agoSure. Apologies.
- usueye 6y agoIt is under reported: https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-gujarat-the-states-media-is-on-a-warpath-with-the-government-over-covid-19 https://scroll.in/article/992217/as-the-dead-pile-up-in-guja... https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly-covid-death-data-up-government https://thewire.in/government/ghaziabad-agra-jhansi-bareilly... This is either to save the image of state or central govt.
- throwaway4good 6y agoIt is sadly predictable that the pandemic would end up becoming a permanent source of havoc in less developed part of the world, even as it comes under control in the west. This will for certain be with us for many years to come and will further distort the difference between rich and poor. Not at least helped by the nationalism in the west in form of export controls and patents.
- wiz21c 6y ago> less developed What do you mean by "less developed" ? Those people have been with us on earth for the very same period of time as any other human. So they have been developing themselves culturally, economically, whatever-ally as much as any other human.
- namanaggarwal 6y agoI think OP meant less developed countries and not less developed people
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- chillacy 6y agoI can see the desire not to look down on others, but economic development isn’t measured in time as much as wealth accumulation. Wealth begets wealth too, so the wealthy countries today tend to be the winners of the industrial revolution (most of Western Europe and Japan which industrialized early).
- kjakm 6y agoIt's not exactly under control in the west yet either. Mainland Europe seems to be going through a pretty serious third wave.
- Deukhoofd 6y agoThird wave? The Netherlands never really left the second one.
- dataflow 6y agoThe situation is also horrible in Brazil (14M cases, 378k deaths, ICUs near full): https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/brazil-alarming-high-number-babies-children-are-dying-covid-19-n1264231 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/brazil-alarming-high-num... One can only wonder if it's simply a matter of time before variants break through vaccines in the US too.
- Cthulhu_ 6y agoI've heard there's an Indian variant that affects vaccinated people in the UK; it's not as clear cut though, this article seems a bit uncertain about it atm: https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-infectious-and-should-the-uk-be-concerned-12280387 https://news.sky.com/story/is-the-indian-covid-variant-more-...
- FriendlyNormie 6y agoKill yourself you retarded NPC faggot fuck. Now.
- collyw 6y agoKeep believing the covid hype. they have said this about most of the variants, but I see no evidence of them actually being more deadly.
- nonamechicken 6y agoIndian Council of Medical Research announced today that Covaxin is effective against several variants including B.1.617 (double mutant variant identified in certain regions of India and several other countries), B.1.1.7 (UK variant), B.1.1.28 (Brazil variant) and B.1.351 (Southern African variant). https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/icmr-says-covaxin-effective-in-neutralising-uk-strain-double-mutant-variant-101618994406690.html https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/icmr-says-covaxin-... https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/covaxin-shows-78-overall-interim-efficacy-100-efficacy-against-severe-covid-bharat-biotech-icmr/articleshow/82178824.cms https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/covaxin-shows-78-o... According to this Twitter person: https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1384825539895173123 https://twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/138482553989517312... >Covaxin is the inactivated virus-based COVID-19 vaccine being developed with Bharat Biotech and Covishield is the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine being manufactured locally by the Serum Institute of India under that name. >So inactivated vaccines tend to have lower immunogenicity on average (when we look back on past vaccines). I would like to think if Covaxin neutralizes it, the others would likely do so as well. We will definitely need data but this is very promising
- qart 6y agoLockdowns hurt poor people very badly; they need to earn to survive. All the more reason everyone should mask up. And yet, most people stopped masking months ago. Crowds are as bad as they were in 2019. On top of that, doctors here have created a craze for remdesivir, resulting in a blackmarket for it. The central and state governments have mismanaged plenty of things. While they deserve their share of blame, the ordinary people have only made matters worse. Chin-mask, no-mask, herbal "remedies", religious gatherings, weddings, engagements, naming ceremonies... the list goes on. As a truly perfect representative of the people, the chief minister here got COVID once, got vaccinated, and then got COVID a second time.
- bellyfullofbac 6y agoI wish people gave a bit more shit about protecting themselves properly, I see too many half-assed mask wearing (with the nose out) around. Or people thinking being masked means they can just hover near others. I also wish that governments try to inform more, I don't really see anyone saying "Ventilate more!" like this research results suggest they should: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-a... .
- BugsJustFindMe 6y ago> I wish people gave a bit more shit about protecting themselves properly I wish people gave a bit more shit about protecting others properly. The people who don't wear masks properly are the ones who think only about themselves ("this mask won't protect me anyway") and don't care about how masks help protect the people around them.
- ncallaway 6y agoAbsolutely this. People who refuse to wear a mask around others, or intentionally wear one poorly are just telegraphing how little they care for other people.
- boyadjian 6y agoBut why is it much worse ? Because of the pandemic, or because of the lockdowns ?
- mrow84 6y agoHow would the lockdowns have made it worse? Could they have produced the exponential growth in cases and deaths that are currently observed in the official data?
- boyadjian 6y agoI quote qart: "Lockdowns hurt poor people very badly; they need to earn to survive."
- mrow84 6y agoThe title of the piece is "‘It is much worse this time’: India’s devastating second wave". Given that the discussion is of the exponential increases in both cases and deaths, it seems clear that the "it" in the title refers to "the pandemic", not "life in general". My response followed this interpretation, despite the wording of your questions - clearly I should have been more explicit: "How would the lockdowns have made the pandemic worse?"
- boyadjian 6y agoI do not say that the lockdowns make the pandemic worse, I say that the lockdowns make life of people worse. The mass media are making a great confusion, between "pandemic" and "life in general", and so do people, and that's what I am specifically criticizing.
- mrow84 6y agoYou are certainly right, the lockdowns do make the lives of most people worse, some significantly more so than others. The pandemic, however, directly threatens people's lives. There have been 33,815 confirmed covid deaths in India since the start of the year, and 3 million around the world since the beginning of the pandemic. I think it is unrealistic to suggest that there have been anything remotely like that number attributable to lockdown over those timeframes.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- hunter-2 6y agoThe fact that the official numbers are through the roof tell you how bad the unofficial (and real) numbers are. In the past week, there have been reports from several cities where the number of Covid deaths are measured in single digits - yet crematoriums are so full that people have started cremating their dead ones on sidewalks.
- kanche 6y agoIn some places by 20x! https://i.imgur.com/VJHL2VT.jpg https://i.imgur.com/VJHL2VT.jpg
- gruez 6y agohow do they know a cremation was for a covid-19 victim?
- Exmoor 6y agoYou don't, but if the death rates are generally stable and predictable a huge increase during a COVID wave seems highly likely to be related. There have been plenty of analysis of various countries mortality rates compared to normal years. In general, the trend seems to be that poorer countries have probably missed a lot of COVID deaths due to lack of testing infrastructure and heavily rural populations. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-...
- zamalek 6y ago> You don't, but if the death rates are generally stable [...] For example: if a crematorium has historically dealt with 20 cremations a week and is now doing 100 a week, you can estimate that 80 people are dying from COVID per week. The estimate is likely to be pretty inaccurate, but it's the best source of information that there is.
- roywiggins 6y ago
- yalogin 6y agoThis is what I feared the first time would be, but somehow the virus spared India. The first time around majority of the population was careful, masked up and stayed indoors. The death was super low. That caused people to get over confident, people believed that covid is not harmful in the country and they fully ignored it. Now there is an Indian variant of the virus which apparently and the infection rates and deaths are up.
- collyw 6y agoStill a small fraction of what Europe has experienced. https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+deaths&Interval=7-day+rolling+average&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=IND~European+Union https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explor...
- dtech 6y agoThere are serious indications that India is under-reporting death count by a factor of 5-50x. Despite showing 5-10x lower death rate in your source, it was rare for European crematoriums have backlogs like in India [1] [1] https://www.reuters.com/world/india/non-stop-cremations-cast-doubt-indias-counting-covid-dead-2021-04-19/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/non-stop-cremations-cast...
- FlyingSnake 6y agoWouldn’t the opposition parties, independent media, foreign watchdogs raise the alarm if that was the case (prior to the current strain)? This would’ve been a golden opportunity to discredit the ruling government.
- kashif 6y agoClearly you know nothing about the Indian media and how it is suppressed by the government. Indian media is NOT FREE to report.
- freddealmeida 6y agoI honestly don't think this is clearly understood by the authorities and they are causing more harm than good. We don't really yet understand Covid or the impact of specific policies like lockdowns, lack of other health inducing activities (exercise, essential vitamins, genetics, food quality, etc). More over, Stanford (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680614/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7680614/) has shown masks don't work. Lockdowns probably have a deleterious affect and we have yet to isolate and purify the Covid19 virus (CDC is being sued on this at the moment). This in my opinion is data manipulation to push an agenda. India is probably fine. I call bullshit
- admp 6y agoThe article you’ve linked to doesn’t appear credible. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-629043235973 https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-629043235973
- Smashure 6y agoThat is not “showing masks don’t work”. That’s just some hypothesis of an individual and he is mistaken on multiple premises.
- hesarenu 6y agoWearing mask might just delay getting the infection. I wore mask all the time, wfh and go out only for groceries, still got infected. And when the CM gets Covid a second time after vaccination anyone can get it even with mask or vaccination.
- mullingitover 6y agoThe point of wearing masks is mostly to prevent you from infecting others if you're already infected. They're somewhat effective at preventing infection but that's not what they're best at - if you're wearing a mask in a room with an unmasked, contagious case, you're still in danger.
- hesarenu 6y agoMaybe they should advertise it like that. I and most i know are wearing thinking it would reduce our risk to exposure.
- nmridul 6y agoI thought masks will reduce the viral load and lessens the severity of infection
- hesarenu 6y agoI though the same. Maybe it has reduced the severity. It seems 99% of infections in Bangalore are asymptomatic. Actual number of infections might be very large.
- devdas 6y agoIt was advertised like that. The mask deniers were louder.
- vadlamak 6y agoIndia really needed to keep up consistent messaging about wearing masks, promote easy to understand infographics (for folks who cannot read) https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/about-face-coverings.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-si... The government, the lax attitude of the public and inconsistent messaging has lead to this situation. It is heart breaking to see so many lives lost needlessly where something as simple as wearing a mask effectively could have averted this disaster.
- univalent 6y agoReally worried for my parents and other relatives. They are being as safe as possible but the virus is everywhere now and not sure if they will be able to avoid it. What a tragedy that people just didn't mask up and avoid gatherings when the vaccines were so close.
- iamAtom 6y agoWhy would you post an article behind pay wall ?
- sturza 6y agoYou must be new here
- dang 6y agoIf there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html and there's more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=paywalls%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989
- neonate 6y agohttps://archive.is/VYm6A https://archive.is/VYm6A
- abanayev 6y agoThank you. I don't understand why people continue to post paywalled content on HN.
- dang 6y agoIf there's a workaround, it's ok. Users usually post workarounds in the thread. This is in the FAQ at https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsfaq.html and there's more explanation here: https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&sort=byDate&type=comment&query=paywalls%20by:dang https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&so... https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10178989
- DanBC 6y agoThe article was not paywalled to me when I posted it.
- hattori31 6y ago
- person_of_color 6y agoI just hope their killer variants dont make it across borders
- dheera 6y agoNon-paywall link: https://californianewstimes.com/it-is-much-worse-this-time-indias-devastating-second-wave/286867/ https://californianewstimes.com/it-is-much-worse-this-time-i...
- Kiraak 6y agoLock down is needed in India for lot of the Morons in our country who were taking things so lightly after the first wave we all deserve the lock down so we can learn a hard lesson, and stupid people die of covid19. The second wave is all because of the central & State Govt and people's foolishness & ignorance. Unfortunately its because of our stupidity its the people of the lower income class have to suffer the most, the daily wage miggrants & people who are contract employees. If only all the organizations took all the right steps we wouldnt have been in this situation. The entire govt mechanism failed from top to the grassroot level, local muncipalities did not bother and neither the people. I hope at least this time, we all learn the lesson.
- vishnugupta 6y agoI expressed a similar opinion while discussing with my friends. Indians don't get a nuanced message. Given the sheer size of Indian (mostly uncivilized) population and its vast geography it's close to impossible to have a middle ground measure. The message from the top must be crystal clear and enforced with iron hammer. If the message/measure contains even an iota of nuance it'll get lost among 1.3B people. If that's not enough we have information pathways (Twitter/FB/WA) that are particularly optimized to spread misinformation at the speed of light. Even when it was 100% evident that the second wave was fully on politicians conducted campaigning rallies, allowed religious gathering of millions, movie halls were running at 100% and so on. The time to contain was then; now it's all about damange control and pray.
- dang 6y agoI'm sure you're well-intentioned, but please don't call names in comments here, no matter how strongly you feel about a topic. It degrades discussion, and is against the site rules for that reason: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.
- orblivion 6y agoHow many people close their windows and use air conditioning in India nowadays? Is it that season now?
- AlexCoventry 6y agoI was wondering that, too. Also wondering how prevalent air conditioning is in rural areas.
- dartharva 6y agoMost don't. At most the ones in drier regions use cheaply-made desert coolers (that are effective, no doubt), but air conditioning systems are a sign of luxury in India.
- orblivion 6y agoThat's what I figured. And it was one plausible explanation I had for how apparently India wasn't doing so badly before. But I guess it's not enough. Though I'm not sure if the desert cooling systems means closed or open windows. (The other explanation was that the numbers weren't trustworthy, based on a the assessment of a friend living in India now.)
- dartharva 6y agoDesert coolers generally mean open windows
- KorematsuFred 6y agoThis might sound like a dark humor but yesterday the issue of Oxygen shortage came up in Supreme Court of India. (For the uninitiated Indian Supreme Court acts a bit like village elder where they can give any random order to government for any reason even if there is no actual lawsuits under consideration.) Supreme court asked Government what their plan to increase Oxygen supply is and if they are planning to import it. The government's response is that they have floated a "tender" and have received 3-4 quotes. (Note that, many hospitals in India right now have < 24 hours of Oxygen supply). Supreme court then asked government to force steel and petrolium factories to divert their oxygen to hospitals because steel and petrolium is not important. :)
- roywiggins 6y agoWhen hospitals run out of oxygen you end up with ICUs full of corpses: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/world/middleeast/egypt-hospital-oxygen-covid.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/world/middleeast/egypt-ho... Seems like a rational thing to want to avoid, even if you have to screw steel mills for a little while.
- sytelus 6y agoIn India Supreme Court can do the governing?!
- abhiminator 6y agoYes. Judicial overreach is as common as bribery in India.
- acvny 6y agoNot surprising. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/india-thousands-join-hindu-festival-ritual-bath-as-covid-surges https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/12/india-thousands-joi...
- xw013k611 6y agoIndia desperately needs some Leronlimab, 100X better than Remdesivir for severe/critical
- johnohara 6y agoBased on over a year's worth of global data, it is reasonable to highly correlate confirmed positive infections with death counts, with only the degree varying from 2% to 6%. Using "official" numbers alone, and the exponential growth they have exhibited in the past week, it is impossible to deny that an unmitigated disaster is unfolding before our eyes in India. Speculate and blame all you want, the situation is deadlier and more real than we have seen globally thus far. It seems to me the most appropriate reaction is to be aghast, and ask "How can I help?"
- devdas 6y agoShipping vaccines and materials needed for vaccine manufacture would be a good start. Reversing this would be good too. https://www.democracynow.org/2021/3/11/rich_countries_block_vaccine_patent_waiver https://www.democracynow.org/2021/3/11/rich_countries_block_...
- johnohara 6y agoAgree. It's disappointing that embargoes on exporting vaccine materials to a country, who under normal circumstances produces so much vaccine for the world, are a matter of emergency use policy.
- outside1234 6y agoThere are 1.3B people in India. There is no way a vaccine is going to arrive in time or be injectable at a scale that matters. If that was a solution, I'd be all for it, but it is not.
- pknerd 6y agoThe problem with subcontinent countries is that their citizens mostly believe in pseudo science promoted by religious celebrities. Yesterday I was reading that Baba Ram Dev has suggested to inhale olive oil which will push covid-19 virus in stomach where it'd be killed by stomach acid. Such ppl exist here in Pakistan too one way and other and I see ppl don't bother to use masks when going mosques. Not sure what kind of stuff do these guys smoke.
- fred_is_fred 6y agoIt's also a problem in the United States - led by Dr Oz and Fox News
- valarauko 6y agoI haven't heard this particular Baba Ramdev remedy, though I don't think he'd suggest olive oil - he'd pick something native. Part of the issue in the Indian middle class (with presumably similar things in Pakistan) is the strong desire to find wisdom in old folk remedies. I can't begin to count the number of WhatsApp forwards early in the pandemic touting gargling with salt water as a means to combat the virus. That, or nigella seeds, ginger, tulsi, ghee, etc.
- pknerd 6y agoYes Asians have lots of such hacks based on wisdom of ancient ppl. Many work too. My only concern is ppl don't take precautions like masks etc after following such hacks. In Pakistan ppl started taking a Herb based on Prophet Hadith which has nothing to do with this covid-19. Some one recommend and everyone started following as a religious obligatory. Many suffered from dirrehea . My friend died due to one of these hacks. He took no mask, got severe congestion and died.
- valarauko 6y agoSorry to hear about your friend. While these nuskas might work for some things, it's the sheer confidence with which they were touted to work on COVID-19. Gargling with warm salt water might help with the symptoms of congestion, but will it eliminate coronaviruses before they take hold? The WhatsApp forwards virtually offered guarantees: "do this everyday and you'll never get COVID-19" "Our ancestors didn't have such problems because they ate lots of ghee", etc etc
- pknerd 6y agoIt's not clear whether India got some new variant like we heard of UK variant?
- windex 6y agoThe Indian Government had one job. Prepare for this crisis. They had one year to prepare for it. They did nothing apart from grandstanding,claiming credit for vaccines, and suggesting home remedies and cow urine (not joking) while telling each other that Indians are immune to this virus. These naratives played out across whatsapp groups and yoga guru channels. The health minister even endorsed some of these remedies on TV. The Prime Minister appears on TV on a regular basis to take credit for all things from all time and sermonise. Rarely has he been insightful or organized. The cabinet of ministers they have also seem to have failed to knock some sense into the Prime Minister and his egotistical proclamations that have put India on to this path. The death toll is likely to be vast and India should expect generational impact. A resolution will take time, a lot of pain, and lots of external help. In the meanwhile, Indian officials will fudge numbers while the truth is out there for everyone to see in the fires that burn all across India and possibly visbile from space. It's unfortunate that a lack of education leads to populations electing incapable leadership leading to horrendous after effects like these.
- anaganisk 6y agoSo true, the PM still doesn't have the decency to take questions even now. He has not given a single press conference since 7 years. He is just a press conference shy version of Donald Trump. All he can do is claim credit and vanish without completing even a single thing.
- canadianfella 6y agoReligious and spiritual bullshit killing people is nothing new and completely expected.
- sytelus 6y agoThis is due to new variant B.1.167 that has triple mutation. The variant appeared last December, I think, but surprisingly not much analysis has been done on vaccine effectiveness. This variant spreads far more faster and very likely vaccines have lower efficacy, but still protective enough to escape respirators. I would think this is going to spread elsewhere soon and lower vaccinated areas going to suffer same fate in coming months.
- xtnmclain 6y agoIndian Government needs to do something about this. Especially that it is happening all over the country, the death rate has reached its all-time high. This stat line might not even be accurate as people are dying remotely far away to the point that Governments are unaware.
- raghava 6y agoMany out here are saying that "the system has collapsed". They are _SO_ wrong. We never _had_ a system to begin with, in the first place! Our "system" is only _EXPOSED_ now, to the entire world. What's seen and exposed now, is what had been operational for the last 30 odd years. Everything needs some strings to be pulled and some hands made warm with a stash of notes. A nation full of mostly meek, timid, inherently corrupt people all of a sudden wondering that "our system has failed! uiuiuiui!" Indian nation had a grand opportunity at getting better. The Indian public just shat on it and smeared cowdung listening to the right wing propaganda. Now, let them drown in cow-urine / dung.
- known 6y agoModi regime in India procured 66 million Covishield/Covaxin units at an inflated price and exported them;