6 ms·
What I hate about Bitcoin is that I have absolutely no idea if this is 1) a good dip to buy, or 2) the start of a much bigger crash. Everything I understand abo
by patentatt 6y ago
What I hate about Bitcoin is that I have absolutely no idea if this is 1) a good dip to buy, or 2) the start of a much bigger crash. Everything I understand about the topic and the world at large tells me it should be #2, but in retrospect it always winds up being #1. Am I passing up free money today? Or am I smart not to gamble in such an obviously rigged game? Will I look back years from now longingly and wish that I had bought, or smugly and glad that I didn’t. I have absolutely no indication one way or the other. Source: played around with crypto a lot 5-6 years ago, got out of it, and could retire today if I had held.
- Avalaxy 6y agoSpread your chances. Buy some now, buy some again later when it crashes even further. If it doesnt crash further, at least you profited from the current dip.
- netrus 6y agoYou conveniently left out the scenario where it continues to crash, and OP looses money twice by following your recommendation. It's a casino.
- fighterpilot 6y agoI do like an amended version, which is to buy some now and then unconditionally buy some later, also known as dollar cost averaging.
- LudwigNagasena 6y agoJust like any forex market.
- patentatt 6y agoSure that makes sense, but why? By that I mean, if I'm evaluating stock in a company, or a commodity, I can reason about the investment in terms that I understand, or at least convince myself one way or the other enough to not lose sleep over it even if I lose money. But crypto? I've got nothing. Total shot in the dark. Completely blind. I can make arguments either way, and both seem equally valid, and both based on pretty much no reliable data. Not looking for an answer here, just venting really.
- polote 6y agoHow is that different from the stock market ? Maybe you have 'more ideas' but that would not prevent you to be wrong. In both case nobody can predict what will happen next
- fny 6y agoThe difference is that stocks can be "valued" whereas crypto and other assets that lack a revenue stream can only be priced.
- insert_coin 6y agoAnd that "value" can also go to 0.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- xur17 6y agoInterestingly, some crypto assets do have revenue streams. Ex: uniswap has an optional cut that their governance token can take of fees, and their fees aren't minuscule ($5M over the past 24 hours). Other assets like Ethereum can be staked in return for mining rewards - I suppose this is more difficult to reason out as a revenue stream since it is a mix of inflation and transaction fees.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- kungito 6y agoYeah it "can" be valued but we can also see that it doesn't really seem like valuations are connected to actual company value
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- 6y ago
- Geee 6y agoMost people look at the stock-to-flow chart as the leading indicator. https://digitalik.net/btc/ https://digitalik.net/btc/
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- scsilver 6y agoBuy a ticket, dont put in much. Adjust over time. I think the foolish point of view is to look at it as black and white. And whatever you do, don't rob yourself of participation in a meme, fun is not a zero sum game. I regret every time I invest in being smug.
- paulryanrogers 6y agoThere are other considerations too. Like buying into a tech that's largely backed by dirty energy.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- TechBro8615 6y agoBecause fiat money isn't backed by a trillion-dollar, oil-guzzling military-industrial complex?
- profunctor 6y agoYou need fiat money to purchase food and shelter
- belltaco 6y agoSo if the US scrapped USD in favor of bitcoin, we wouldn't need the army anymore? This argument never makes sense to me.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- xondono 6y agoThat’s how bubbles work. IMHO, the best case scenario for crypto is that they are the web companies of the 2000s, so there’s a chance some of them will become an amazingly profitable investment, while most will go the way of pets.com. And that’s the best case.
- hooande 6y agoif you legitimately have no idea, then you don't have any more information than the market does. why would you trade at all?
- fullshark 6y agoCause you might regret your decision in 10 years. Not participating is a decision just as participating is.
- patentatt 6y agoI don't. But the 'what if' game keeps me up at night sometimes. Buying and holding BTC isn't as far-fetched as guessing the right lotto numbers. Even smaller-scale stuff, like if I had taken half of my vacation fund and bought BTC 6 months ago, which would have been a pretty acceptable risk (it's all gravy and already set aside), that would be a non-trivial amount of money to me. What if I could max out my kid's college funds just by making a few different decisions? That's the kind of thing that gets me.
- dwaltrip 6y agoOf course, you can always do better. And it is good to try to improve. But it sounds like some unreasonable expectations are sneaking into your thoughts. Like it or not, you are only human :) For me, meditation and practicing self-compassion helped with stuff like this.
- bradleyjg 6y agoIf you don’t have any thesis beyond “hey, it could go up,” then you are gambling. That doesn’t mean you’ll lose, sometimes gambles pay off. You should no more feel bad about not having won gambling on btc than you do about not having picked the winning lotto numbers last week.
- amelius 6y agoOld trading wisdom: there is more room for it to go up than down.
- literallyWTF 6y agoYeah but based on what? That everyone decides to buy Bitcoin?
- bradleyjg 6y agoThat’s true of everything.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- bbarnett 6y agoYou could say that about any commodity, like a stock. How is it valuable info though, a predictor of future performance?
- jdhn 6y agoI buy $15 worth of bitcoin every 2 weeks, so $30 a month. I'm not comfortable investing any more than that. So far this has worked out really well for me because I never invest more than I'm comfortable losing, and therefore feel immune to crashes.
- throwaway_kufu 6y ago> Or am I smart not to gamble in such an obviously rigged game? This can not be understated. Everything about “crypto currencies” and NFTs are a complete and total rig job. It’s not even hidden by the large SV capital, simply justified on the basis that...so what it’s the same thing the markets or art collectors have always done. Instead of backroom dealings, it all takes place in chat rooms and discord servers. I’ll admit as somewhat of an artist I thought I’d submit my work to a “invite only” NFT marketplace and sure enough I get a DM from one of the most prolific and successful artists shaking me down for Bitcoin in exchange for the invite promising me a minimum amount in monthly NFT sales. Of course thinking that was a potential scam, I inquired about the pay to play and was not only told how the whole thing works from the founders down to these “anonymous” NFT collectors on Twitter run by the marketplaces themselves, and to confirm it I posted a tweet immediately liked by one such profile (to put in perspective the profile had bought an NFT from Musk’s partner for I think around $750k). I never sent the Bitcoin on the basis of being disgusted with the whole thing, which in hindsight makes me a complete moron. Everyday as I see “artists” thanking the anonymous Twitter account for changing their life with a purchase of their NFT or how they are in tears because they can pay their student loan off...I consider giving the discord art submission, dm, and tweet to the news media...but then I realize they don’t care they probably are in on it too, or at least would calculate the amount of money on ad revenue and clicks they would lose if they exposed this scam and they could no longer write daily stories about NFTs. You can definitely make money, just always remember it is a repeat of the gold rush and just marketing to poor people about life changing opportunity and gold so plentiful you can just pickup nuggets as large as your head, all you need to do if move to their town and buy their shovels. If you have no morals about it the better bet is to tell them you aren’t much of a digger but one hell of a shovel salesmen with a wink.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- oliver-was-here 6y agoFor me it’s not a question of either or. In or out. I limit my exposure to 10%. Hate crypto or not, it’s earned its right to be treated as a legitimate investment class. The reason to diversify are due to the exact same reasons you’re expressing. If I were to liquidate my positions, I’d do so over a period of time rather than all at once - likely keeping some exposure. IMO, if you’re investing in any equity trying to “time it,” or get rich quick, you’re taking as big of a risk as having exposure in crypto to begin with.