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If you look at the numbers 50% of TSMC's revenue is made up by the 5nm and 7nm as of 2021. And just one company, Apple, makes up 25% of TSMC's revenue. While th

If you look at the numbers 50% of TSMC's revenue is made up by the 5nm and 7nm as of 2021. And just one company, Apple, makes up 25% of TSMC's revenue. While the M1 is a great chip - it also just launched and Apple has been one fourth of TSMC's revenue for years. This means that around 40 to 50% of the top performance nodes suitable for general purpose use in data centers, workstations, etc. is being used for mobile devices -> mostly phones and tablets. On one hand I have to thank Apple for pushing semiconducter development and making ARM a real x86 replacement outside the DC. However, it seems really wasteful and like a mis-allocation of resources to put the top performing silicon in devices that don't really need it. Even the M1 architecture is handicapped by Apple itself. Besides the most obnoxious use of M1 Mac mini's in DC basically for the sole purpose of iOS and macOS app development, the CPUs are mostly used in consumer devices. Their main purpose for use in consumer devices? To eliminate the need for a fan and to improve battery life. Both of these things are great but also just not high on the list of problems humanity needs to solve. What I am trying to say is that, for the last few decades, it at least seemed like 'real' work drove semiconductor development. From cloud giants to a local companies data center, performance and power efficiency were what drove and purchased the bleeding edge CPU/GPUs (I suppose in some ways GPUs were driven by consumers/entertainment reasons). Now it seems like luxury products are taking on that role. I call these mobile iOS/Android products luxury products because outside of novelty purposes no one is really producing movies or something of value beyond a word document on these devices. Traditional laptops and desktops "won" in a way for the same reason that the M1 processor exists; mobile operating systems still have never matured to replace then so instead even Apple is bringing mobile software back to the traditional computer. The most worrying aspect of this development of course is how locked down most of these devices are. iOS devices are of course in a walled garden and even macOS has more & more restrictions. I can easily imagine a day where consumer level electronics are completely locked down and the only way to get a open/free platform is to buy server hardware - if that is even possible. Server hardware is also moving to ARM and while not locked down in a software or hardware way it is locked down in the sense that only a few companies can buy it or at least no one so far is interested in selling single digit volumes of ARM servers. The days of open computing for the general person certainly seem numbered.

zxcero 6y ago
> However, it seems really wasteful and like a mis-allocation of resources to put the top performing silicon in devices that don't really need it Semiconductor research requires a lot of capital. If Apple is providing that upfront capital at a higher rate, then that's great for TMSC. More capital for spearheading development. And with better and better yield at smaller node sizes, it'll trinkle down. 2 years later 5nm would become common place and can be used to produce chips for servers. It's just the question between now and a couple years later. > Both of these things are great but also just not high on the list of problems humanity needs to solve. At the end of the day, it's the market that determines innovation and R&D. More money for a specific product results in more money spent in researching and development. It's about what people need rather it's about what people want. Also not having a fan and improved battery life means less ewaste, smaller batteries and less electricity use. > What I am trying to say is that, for the last few decades, it at least seemed like 'real' work drove semiconductor development. First it was military spending that funded CPU development. Later on, it was enterprise because of companies had money. Now with cheaper and faster hardware, more and more people are able to get their hands on a PC. You can watch educational videos online. Talk to thousands of people or connect with relatives. You can do online webinars or shows. Heck, you can even learn languages on apps on your phone. In the end, mobile phones are a tool. They can be beneficial or detrimental on the use. > mobile operating systems still have never matured to replace then so instead even Apple is bringing mobile software back to the traditional computer. It's about centralizing software development between platforms. It's cheaper and easier to develop one software OS across platforms than to have MacOS and iOS separate. This might mean that later on your Ipad can run VScode. > I can easily imagine a day where consumer level electronics are completely locked down and the only way to get a open/free platform is to buy server hardware - if that is even possible. Its the opposite. The prices for all these microprocessors have been getting lower and lower while becoming exceeding more powerful. You can buy an integrated microcontroller with bluetooth and wifi modules for <$10. In fact, open computing has expanded due to cheaper cost to PCs and faster hardware. More people can afford to do software and hardware development. There's so many resources nowadays for open source development or even hobbyist tinkering of hardware. This is one of the best times you can be in for open computing.
tsss 6y ago

zxcero 6y ago

> However, it seems really wasteful and like a mis-allocation of resources to put the top performing silicon in devices that don't really need it Semiconductor research requires a lot of capital. If Apple is providing that upfront capital at a higher rate, then that's great for TMSC. More capital for spearheading development. And with better and better yield at smaller node sizes, it'll trinkle down. 2 years later 5nm would become common place and can be used to produce chips for servers. It's just the question between now and a couple years later. > Both of these things are great but also just not high on the list of problems humanity needs to solve. At the end of the day, it's the market that determines innovation and R&D. More money for a specific product results in more money spent in researching and development. It's about what people need rather it's about what people want. Also not having a fan and improved battery life means less ewaste, smaller batteries and less electricity use. > What I am trying to say is that, for the last few decades, it at least seemed like 'real' work drove semiconductor development. First it was military spending that funded CPU development. Later on, it was enterprise because of companies had money. Now with cheaper and faster hardware, more and more people are able to get their hands on a PC. You can watch educational videos online. Talk to thousands of people or connect with relatives. You can do online webinars or shows. Heck, you can even learn languages on apps on your phone. In the end, mobile phones are a tool. They can be beneficial or detrimental on the use. > mobile operating systems still have never matured to replace then so instead even Apple is bringing mobile software back to the traditional computer. It's about centralizing software development between platforms. It's cheaper and easier to develop one software OS across platforms than to have MacOS and iOS separate. This might mean that later on your Ipad can run VScode. > I can easily imagine a day where consumer level electronics are completely locked down and the only way to get a open/free platform is to buy server hardware - if that is even possible. Its the opposite. The prices for all these microprocessors have been getting lower and lower while becoming exceeding more powerful. You can buy an integrated microcontroller with bluetooth and wifi modules for <$10. In fact, open computing has expanded due to cheaper cost to PCs and faster hardware. More people can afford to do software and hardware development. There's so many resources nowadays for open source development or even hobbyist tinkering of hardware. This is one of the best times you can be in for open computing.

tsss 6y ago