7 ms·

Suicide trends in the early months of the Covid-19 pandemic

66 points by DanBC 6y ago

rossdavidh 6y ago
While it's kind of a non-event, and given that it's only the early months of the pandemic maybe not even a particularly surprising non-event, I think it is important that even studies which don't find anything noteworthy get published. So, while I still have serious concerns about the long-term mental health impacts of the pandemic (for several reasons), I do think it's good that this got published.
- jonas21 6y ago
  Why do you say that this isn't noteworthy? They found there was no significant increase in suicide in any of the 35 regions they studied, and in fact found a statistically significant decrease in suicide in 12 of them. Given that many people were concerned there might be an increase in suicides due to pandemic lockdowns, particularly in the early months when restrictions were most severe, this seems like a very noteworthy result.
  - UncleOxidant 6y ago
    Yeah, I don't know how many times on HN I've seen comments like "we need to open things up because suicides are up due to shutdowns!" without any supporting data. And now we see suicides were actually down in some places and mostly unchanged everywhere else.
    - chrisco255 6y ago
      The data doesn't show that lockdowns didn't cause suicide, either though. For example, Norway is in the dataset, and Norway didn't lock down, or only locked down for a couple weeks. It might also be interesting to see what the results were in urban areas with tight restrictions, maybe even in countries with already high suicide rates, like South Korea and Japan, to see the results. But either way, you cannot isolate the "lockdown" variable because there was a full spectrum of policy responses from different countries, cities, and subregions. So, let's just say the jury is still out. We know that social isolation causes depression. We know that economic hardship causes depression. When people argue against lockdowns, this is why.
      - hobs 6y ago
        We had more lockdowns, we didnt have more suicides, how is that not showing the claim doesnt hold?
    - WillPostForFood 6y ago
      There are hundreds of stories like this one by NPR, which not an expected source for anti-lockdown fake news: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/962060105/child-psychiatrists-warn-that-the-pandemic-may-be-driving-up-kids-suicide-risk https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/9620601... So people read it and think the suicide rate is going up. It may actually be going up for some groups in some places, but the bigger message here is that the media loves a good horror story, and is willing to report anything based on anecdotes.
      - zthrowaway 6y ago
        But deaths of despair are on the rise. Perhaps pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown people focus on the wrong data points. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depression-mental-health-covid-19-pandemic/amp https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depres...
      - packetlost 6y ago
        I wouldn't really expect suicides to rise much within the first few months, if at all. It's 3+ months an onward that I would expect to start seeing increases due to prolonged isolation.
    - bellyfullofbac 6y ago
      But this was just for the first three months, and for those regions... I'm not for hasty reopenings, rather for more money for mental health, and intuition says the loss of jobs and financial security must have an effect on mental health, and unfortunately along with that, suicides. E.g. in India: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicides-rise-coronavirus-squeezes-india-middle-class https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicid...
  - idownvoted 6y ago
    People who rejoice about this study because they want to use it to defend policies that are criticized for potential negative mental health impacts willingly neglect the nature of suicide: Of course sucide numbers go down because many suicidal people want their death to be noticed. Say the policies are lifted and suicides go up again, will the rejoicing ones account for that as well? Of course not, they will rather gaslight the argument by blaming the increase on the lifting
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
  - redis_mlc 6y ago
    A whole class of business people was wiped out financially in the US. When the commercial real estate lawsuits start, we'll see what happens.
  - makomk 6y ago
    That caveat about this only covering the first few months of the pandemic is actually important. I know that Japan for example has seen a substantial rise in suicides but it happened after the time period covered by this article (though well before it was actually published).
    - DanBC 6y ago
      Yes. One of the authors is very clear that this is early data. https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382248431272480769?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382248431272480769?... What is message from our new paper showing no rise in suicide in pandemic? •early figures, risks remain, #suicideprevention still a priority •main risk is economic downturn - protecting income, jobs, housing vital •MH care & community supports needed for those most at risk https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382257477111140358?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382257477111140358?... Some cautions re our new paper on suicide post-Covid •England data not included, to be reported soon •mainly rich countries, impact may be greater in poorer parts of world •early figs, we are still in mid-pandemic •no analysis by age, race or region
dj_mc_merlin 6y ago
I apologize if this is dark. Could it be that the change-up in our routines and the world in general has made some suicidal people reconsider? We live in very interesting times.. I have never been close to considering suicide, but I imagine I would at least have wanted to find out what happens next now that there's a global pandemic.
- standardUser 6y ago
  That take isn't unintuitive, but I think it discounts the degree to which suicidal thoughts are the product of mental illness. It's not that a suicidal person needs a reason to live, or a logical argument to change their mind. In most cases (some estimates say 90%) the individual needs treatment for a specific mental illness.
  - akvadrako 6y ago
    I don't think that's true at all. For example in Japan most suicides are by older men who become single. It's not like they suddenly develop a mental illness.
- bellyfullofbac 6y ago
  My guess is, it's because in the beginning of the pandemic many people started reconnecting with people they hadn't talked to in a long time, and some suicidal people found sympathetic ears. Fascinatingly, social media and messenger apps probably have data to back my guess, "Of people that interacted with each other, give me the time interval since their last interaction", and my guess is, the average of that interval would've increased in March/April 2020.
- neetle 6y ago
  Suicide and what motivates people to complete it is an incredibly complex topic. If you're looking at somewhere to start reading, I found Durkheim's theories interesting (and somewhat comforting, given recent experiences). If someone reading this is considering it, please reach out to someone. I won't say that it will get better, but most people who survive their attempts regret attempting it in the first place.
kulix425 6y ago
doubt
argvargc 6y ago
In "The Lancet"? You mean the same Lancet that published an anti-HCQ study, pushed all over mainstream media, that it was later forced to (comparatively quietly) retract, after the papers authors refused to provide would-be peer-review any access to the data? next
ketanmaheshwari 6y ago
Should HN automatically post the suicide prevention lines on posts that mention suicide and have a certain number of votes? I feel like it should.
- OldManAndTheCpp 6y ago
  Does that have any effect on reducing suicide rates?
  - ketamine__ 6y ago
    In this climate if it saves just one life it's worth it.
    - Kinrany 6y ago
      In what climate wouldn't it be? But we don't know if it does. It sounds like a kind of thing that does almost nothing on its own and becomes irrelevant the moment a halfway decent solution is found.
      - neetle 6y ago
        You're right that if we do find something that makes it irrelevant, it won't be needed. Let's not make perfect the enemy of good here though - it's a mild preventative that actually may help someone at risk. There have been studies that show that even _reporting_ on suicide can cause an uptick of rates without the proper precautions. If it doesn't impact you, great. If it helps pull someone else off the edge though, it's worth it.
      - ketamine__ 6y ago
        Cars kill people. We don't pull them off the road to save a life.
- vmception 6y ago
  Why do you feel that way? I don’t have any context on your worldview and don’t really understand that meme. What does suicide prevention copypasta actually do, what does it hope to accomplish, is there any quantitative study on the efficacy, and do people even want data as opposed to a feeling?
RileyJames 6y ago
I’m surprised the numbers between NSW & QLD are similar to Victoria. As Victoria (Melbourne specifically, but that represents the majority of the population) had a long, harsh lockdown, where as QLD & NSW did not. Maybe looking at suicides within specific populations would be more telling. I imagine for many, working from home was an opportunity. For others, it meant unemployment.
- rossdavidh 6y ago
  Well, it all depends on the exact mechanisms for how "I'm depressed" gets all the way to suicide. No question that the lockdown was depressing for a lot of people, but there's all kinds of reasons it might not (in the early months) have led to an increase in suicides, including: - a feeling that it wasn't just you, lots of people felt this way - a feeling that an end was in sight, unlike if you think you've just screwed up your life somehow - an understanding that the way you were feeling was not your fault, and had an external cause, rather than being about your worth or etc. Not saying any of these theories (guesses) are right, just suggesting there are lots of possibilities which would need to be examined to really understand what went on (and didn't) during a lockdown.
- keithnz 6y ago
  Looking at how small the numbers are, I think the error on finer grain analysis would end up being misleading. The data seems to be saying lockdowns are not really a significant factor
LatteLazy 6y ago
Seems like a good study. Interesting result, I wonder if it will hold true for later periods, once the novelty has worn off...
zuhayeer 6y ago
Perhaps change title to “Suicide rates mostly unchanged due to Covid-19 pandemic”
- krona 6y ago
  From the introduction: "The evidence so far is insufficient to indicate what the effect of COVID-19 on suicides has been or will be"
  - manquer 6y ago
    Perhaps there has to differentiation between impact of lockdowns and the long term effects of the pandemic. Any economic downturn like whats happening now is significant trigger for mental health issues and suicides, and will take lot of time to surface and in turn be measured. The narrower question is whether there has been strong impact on suicide rates and mental health as result of last year of staying home involuntarily could perhaps be answered now.
  - agumonkey 6y ago
    One thing for sure is that there's an obvious increase in report of anguish. It might not lead to catastrophic events but it's for everyone to see. That said it can also be an emotional mirroring effect.. seeing people talk about how they're losing it might make you want to write that too.
- ekianjo 6y ago
  Actually decreased in the US, it's now documented.
k__ 6y ago
Interesting to see the differences in the German cities. Seems that the smaller the city, the lower the suicide rate.
- manquer 6y ago
  Perhaps it is because you are more emotionally and socially connected to everyone near by to get better support and care?
  - tomtheelder 6y ago
    I know in the US it's the opposite with higher suicide rates in more rural areas.
    - manquer 6y ago
      In U.S. rural areas can very be sparsely populated , the effect of neighbors and family nearby may not be as strong perhaps. Or perhaps this could be because job losses have had heavier impact on industries based in the cities, like travel and tourism and less so in rural towns, which in turn kept the rates lower.
riskneutral 6y ago
Tell this to the parent whose teenager committed suicide in the early or later months of the Covid-19 pandemic. No way that this study is an accurate picture of the Covid-19 pandemic. Perhaps suicides due to other causes reduced, while suicides due to lockdowns increased and the data just showed that the number is unchanged.

66 points by DanBC 6y ago

While it's kind of a non-event, and given that it's only the early months of the pandemic maybe not even a particularly surprising non-event, I think it is important that even studies which don't find anything noteworthy get published. So, while I still have serious concerns about the long-term mental health impacts of the pandemic (for several reasons), I do think it's good that this got published.

jonas21 6y ago
Why do you say that this isn't noteworthy? They found there was no significant increase in suicide in any of the 35 regions they studied, and in fact found a statistically significant decrease in suicide in 12 of them. Given that many people were concerned there might be an increase in suicides due to pandemic lockdowns, particularly in the early months when restrictions were most severe, this seems like a very noteworthy result.
- UncleOxidant 6y ago
  Yeah, I don't know how many times on HN I've seen comments like "we need to open things up because suicides are up due to shutdowns!" without any supporting data. And now we see suicides were actually down in some places and mostly unchanged everywhere else.
  - chrisco255 6y ago
    The data doesn't show that lockdowns didn't cause suicide, either though. For example, Norway is in the dataset, and Norway didn't lock down, or only locked down for a couple weeks. It might also be interesting to see what the results were in urban areas with tight restrictions, maybe even in countries with already high suicide rates, like South Korea and Japan, to see the results. But either way, you cannot isolate the "lockdown" variable because there was a full spectrum of policy responses from different countries, cities, and subregions. So, let's just say the jury is still out. We know that social isolation causes depression. We know that economic hardship causes depression. When people argue against lockdowns, this is why.
    - hobs 6y ago
      We had more lockdowns, we didnt have more suicides, how is that not showing the claim doesnt hold?
  - WillPostForFood 6y ago
    There are hundreds of stories like this one by NPR, which not an expected source for anti-lockdown fake news: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/962060105/child-psychiatrists-warn-that-the-pandemic-may-be-driving-up-kids-suicide-risk https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/02/02/9620601... So people read it and think the suicide rate is going up. It may actually be going up for some groups in some places, but the bigger message here is that the media loves a good horror story, and is willing to report anything based on anecdotes.
    - zthrowaway 6y ago
      But deaths of despair are on the rise. Perhaps pro-lockdown and anti-lockdown people focus on the wrong data points. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depression-mental-health-covid-19-pandemic/amp https://www.sciencenews.org/article/deaths-of-despair-depres...
    - packetlost 6y ago
      I wouldn't really expect suicides to rise much within the first few months, if at all. It's 3+ months an onward that I would expect to start seeing increases due to prolonged isolation.
  - bellyfullofbac 6y ago
    But this was just for the first three months, and for those regions... I'm not for hasty reopenings, rather for more money for mental health, and intuition says the loss of jobs and financial security must have an effect on mental health, and unfortunately along with that, suicides. E.g. in India: https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicides-rise-coronavirus-squeezes-india-middle-class https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-10-06/suicid...
- idownvoted 6y ago
  People who rejoice about this study because they want to use it to defend policies that are criticized for potential negative mental health impacts willingly neglect the nature of suicide: Of course sucide numbers go down because many suicidal people want their death to be noticed. Say the policies are lifted and suicides go up again, will the rejoicing ones account for that as well? Of course not, they will rather gaslight the argument by blaming the increase on the lifting
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
- redis_mlc 6y ago
  A whole class of business people was wiped out financially in the US. When the commercial real estate lawsuits start, we'll see what happens.
- makomk 6y ago
  That caveat about this only covering the first few months of the pandemic is actually important. I know that Japan for example has seen a substantial rise in suicides but it happened after the time period covered by this article (though well before it was actually published).
  - DanBC 6y ago
    Yes. One of the authors is very clear that this is early data. https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382248431272480769?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382248431272480769?... What is message from our new paper showing no rise in suicide in pandemic? •early figures, risks remain, #suicideprevention still a priority •main risk is economic downturn - protecting income, jobs, housing vital •MH care & community supports needed for those most at risk https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382257477111140358?s=20 https://twitter.com/ProfLAppleby/status/1382257477111140358?... Some cautions re our new paper on suicide post-Covid •England data not included, to be reported soon •mainly rich countries, impact may be greater in poorer parts of world •early figs, we are still in mid-pandemic •no analysis by age, race or region

dj_mc_merlin 6y ago

I apologize if this is dark. Could it be that the change-up in our routines and the world in general has made some suicidal people reconsider? We live in very interesting times.. I have never been close to considering suicide, but I imagine I would at least have wanted to find out what happens next now that there's a global pandemic.

standardUser 6y ago
That take isn't unintuitive, but I think it discounts the degree to which suicidal thoughts are the product of mental illness. It's not that a suicidal person needs a reason to live, or a logical argument to change their mind. In most cases (some estimates say 90%) the individual needs treatment for a specific mental illness.
- akvadrako 6y ago
  I don't think that's true at all. For example in Japan most suicides are by older men who become single. It's not like they suddenly develop a mental illness.
bellyfullofbac 6y ago
My guess is, it's because in the beginning of the pandemic many people started reconnecting with people they hadn't talked to in a long time, and some suicidal people found sympathetic ears. Fascinatingly, social media and messenger apps probably have data to back my guess, "Of people that interacted with each other, give me the time interval since their last interaction", and my guess is, the average of that interval would've increased in March/April 2020.
neetle 6y ago
Suicide and what motivates people to complete it is an incredibly complex topic. If you're looking at somewhere to start reading, I found Durkheim's theories interesting (and somewhat comforting, given recent experiences). If someone reading this is considering it, please reach out to someone. I won't say that it will get better, but most people who survive their attempts regret attempting it in the first place.

kulix425 6y ago

doubt

argvargc 6y ago

In "The Lancet"? You mean the same Lancet that published an anti-HCQ study, pushed all over mainstream media, that it was later forced to (comparatively quietly) retract, after the papers authors refused to provide would-be peer-review any access to the data? next

ketanmaheshwari 6y ago

Should HN automatically post the suicide prevention lines on posts that mention suicide and have a certain number of votes? I feel like it should.

OldManAndTheCpp 6y ago
Does that have any effect on reducing suicide rates?
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  In this climate if it saves just one life it's worth it.
  - Kinrany 6y ago
    In what climate wouldn't it be? But we don't know if it does. It sounds like a kind of thing that does almost nothing on its own and becomes irrelevant the moment a halfway decent solution is found.
    - neetle 6y ago
      You're right that if we do find something that makes it irrelevant, it won't be needed. Let's not make perfect the enemy of good here though - it's a mild preventative that actually may help someone at risk. There have been studies that show that even _reporting_ on suicide can cause an uptick of rates without the proper precautions. If it doesn't impact you, great. If it helps pull someone else off the edge though, it's worth it.
    - ketamine__ 6y ago
      Cars kill people. We don't pull them off the road to save a life.
vmception 6y ago
Why do you feel that way? I don’t have any context on your worldview and don’t really understand that meme. What does suicide prevention copypasta actually do, what does it hope to accomplish, is there any quantitative study on the efficacy, and do people even want data as opposed to a feeling?

RileyJames 6y ago

I’m surprised the numbers between NSW & QLD are similar to Victoria. As Victoria (Melbourne specifically, but that represents the majority of the population) had a long, harsh lockdown, where as QLD & NSW did not. Maybe looking at suicides within specific populations would be more telling. I imagine for many, working from home was an opportunity. For others, it meant unemployment.

rossdavidh 6y ago
Well, it all depends on the exact mechanisms for how "I'm depressed" gets all the way to suicide. No question that the lockdown was depressing for a lot of people, but there's all kinds of reasons it might not (in the early months) have led to an increase in suicides, including: - a feeling that it wasn't just you, lots of people felt this way - a feeling that an end was in sight, unlike if you think you've just screwed up your life somehow - an understanding that the way you were feeling was not your fault, and had an external cause, rather than being about your worth or etc. Not saying any of these theories (guesses) are right, just suggesting there are lots of possibilities which would need to be examined to really understand what went on (and didn't) during a lockdown.
keithnz 6y ago
Looking at how small the numbers are, I think the error on finer grain analysis would end up being misleading. The data seems to be saying lockdowns are not really a significant factor

LatteLazy 6y ago

Seems like a good study. Interesting result, I wonder if it will hold true for later periods, once the novelty has worn off...

zuhayeer 6y ago

Perhaps change title to “Suicide rates mostly unchanged due to Covid-19 pandemic”

krona 6y ago
From the introduction: "The evidence so far is insufficient to indicate what the effect of COVID-19 on suicides has been or will be"
- manquer 6y ago
  Perhaps there has to differentiation between impact of lockdowns and the long term effects of the pandemic. Any economic downturn like whats happening now is significant trigger for mental health issues and suicides, and will take lot of time to surface and in turn be measured. The narrower question is whether there has been strong impact on suicide rates and mental health as result of last year of staying home involuntarily could perhaps be answered now.
- agumonkey 6y ago
  One thing for sure is that there's an obvious increase in report of anguish. It might not lead to catastrophic events but it's for everyone to see. That said it can also be an emotional mirroring effect.. seeing people talk about how they're losing it might make you want to write that too.
ekianjo 6y ago
Actually decreased in the US, it's now documented.

k__ 6y ago

Interesting to see the differences in the German cities. Seems that the smaller the city, the lower the suicide rate.

manquer 6y ago
Perhaps it is because you are more emotionally and socially connected to everyone near by to get better support and care?
- tomtheelder 6y ago
  I know in the US it's the opposite with higher suicide rates in more rural areas.
  - manquer 6y ago
    In U.S. rural areas can very be sparsely populated , the effect of neighbors and family nearby may not be as strong perhaps. Or perhaps this could be because job losses have had heavier impact on industries based in the cities, like travel and tourism and less so in rural towns, which in turn kept the rates lower.

riskneutral 6y ago

Tell this to the parent whose teenager committed suicide in the early or later months of the Covid-19 pandemic. No way that this study is an accurate picture of the Covid-19 pandemic. Perhaps suicides due to other causes reduced, while suicides due to lockdowns increased and the data just showed that the number is unchanged.