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Why do people keep posting this nonsense? Who cares how many clots birth controls produce? What matters is the outcome compared to the thing birth controls pre

Why do people keep posting this nonsense? Who cares how many clots birth controls produce? What matters is the outcome compared to the thing birth controls prevent - pregnancy. Do you get more blood clots from being pregnant or from being on the pill? It's order of magnitudes more from being pregnant, therefore if you're sexually active it's safer to be on the pill compared to not. How is this the top post? People have no knowledge of basic Bayesian statistics.

endtime 6y ago
I don't see your point. The J&J vaccine also presumably prevents much more blood clot-related harm than it's causing. OP is pointing out that we seem to have weirdly high standards for COVID vaccines vs. stuff we're used to. Also, how does Bayes' Theorem apply to your comment?
- endisneigh 6y ago
  There's no "high standard" to begin with. J&J is paused because there are alternatives that don't have clotting to the same degree. A comparison with birth control makes no sense. Is there some magical birth control that's used orders of magnitude more (Pfizer) and orders of magnitude safer with respect to blood clotting and also prevents pregnancy? No? Then the comparison is stupid.
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    The primary concern people have here isn't the review, it's the immediate withdrawal. People who had appointments to get the J&J vaccine will now go vaccine-less until they can be rescheduled, even if they would have been happy to take it knowing about the blood clots.
    - endisneigh 6y ago
      Sure, but my point is that a comparison with birth control is stupid at best, harmful at worst. J&J isn't being permanently suspended - I bet you within the coming days this ban will be reversed and people can get J&J if they'd like.
  - allturtles 6y ago
    There currently isn't enough vaccine to meet demand. Pausing J&J distribution will cause a larger gap between supply and demand. The 7 day average of deaths from Covid in the U.S. is 985. Even a week's delay in getting to full deployment of the vaccine thus means thousands of deaths.
    - endisneigh 6y ago
      What would need to happen in your view to justify pausing vaccinations for even a single day? IMO that lack of caution is why the USA is in this situation to begin with.
      - allturtles 6y ago
        I am not saying outright that the pause is not justified. But it has a substantial cost, and it would be good to see that our health authorities have considered this and weighed the balance of costs and benefits. e.g. it might have made sense to pause J&J for under age X and continue it for over age X, based on relative risk. I don't agree with your analysis, I think you can see it entirely the other way, that both this pause and the initial "wait and see" attitude towards Covid are the result of an excessive bias towards the status quo. I remember back in January-February 2020 when people were saying it would be crazy to just shut down air travel, think of the massive economic cost.
ceejayoz 6y ago
> What matters is the outcome compared to the thing birth controls prevent - pregnancy. Same with the vaccine. > Do you get more blood clots from being pregnant or from being on the pill? Again, same with the vaccine. COVID itself causes clots, in a very substantial percentage of hospitalized patients. "The benefits of this medical intervention are worthwhile, despite the risks, given the alternative" is precisely the point being made.
- endisneigh 6y ago
  > Same with the vaccine. No, because there are other vaccines that don't give you blood clots at all. Your entire point is moot. Pausing temporarily to investigate is hardly controversial. The comparison with birth control is nonsensical. A vaccination for COVID is not the same as getting birth control. Even if it was, why would you get J&J if you could get Pfizer that doesn't have the same issue? If all vaccinations had the same blood clotting issue then perhaps you and the original poster would have a point. Given a huge disparity between them with regards to blood clotting taking a moment to investigate this is simply prudent. Making nonsensical comparisons to birth control, well, is not.
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    > No, because there are other vaccines that don't give you blood clots at all. Not enough to go around. Pfizer's goal is 2B doses (1B people) this year. Moderna's is even smaller. 8B people in the world.
    - endisneigh 6y ago
      Sure, but J&J isn't being permanently discontinued. Why are you against simply pausing vaccinations to investigate this? If the USA was this prudent with COVID in its beginning we wouldn't even be having this conversation. Your argument would be reasonable if it was being permanently suspended.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago

endtime 6y ago

I don't see your point. The J&J vaccine also presumably prevents much more blood clot-related harm than it's causing. OP is pointing out that we seem to have weirdly high standards for COVID vaccines vs. stuff we're used to. Also, how does Bayes' Theorem apply to your comment?

endisneigh 6y ago
There's no "high standard" to begin with. J&J is paused because there are alternatives that don't have clotting to the same degree. A comparison with birth control makes no sense. Is there some magical birth control that's used orders of magnitude more (Pfizer) and orders of magnitude safer with respect to blood clotting and also prevents pregnancy? No? Then the comparison is stupid.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  The primary concern people have here isn't the review, it's the immediate withdrawal. People who had appointments to get the J&J vaccine will now go vaccine-less until they can be rescheduled, even if they would have been happy to take it knowing about the blood clots.
  - endisneigh 6y ago
    Sure, but my point is that a comparison with birth control is stupid at best, harmful at worst. J&J isn't being permanently suspended - I bet you within the coming days this ban will be reversed and people can get J&J if they'd like.
- allturtles 6y ago
  There currently isn't enough vaccine to meet demand. Pausing J&J distribution will cause a larger gap between supply and demand. The 7 day average of deaths from Covid in the U.S. is 985. Even a week's delay in getting to full deployment of the vaccine thus means thousands of deaths.
  - endisneigh 6y ago
    What would need to happen in your view to justify pausing vaccinations for even a single day? IMO that lack of caution is why the USA is in this situation to begin with.
    - allturtles 6y ago
      I am not saying outright that the pause is not justified. But it has a substantial cost, and it would be good to see that our health authorities have considered this and weighed the balance of costs and benefits. e.g. it might have made sense to pause J&J for under age X and continue it for over age X, based on relative risk. I don't agree with your analysis, I think you can see it entirely the other way, that both this pause and the initial "wait and see" attitude towards Covid are the result of an excessive bias towards the status quo. I remember back in January-February 2020 when people were saying it would be crazy to just shut down air travel, think of the massive economic cost.

ceejayoz 6y ago

> What matters is the outcome compared to the thing birth controls prevent - pregnancy. Same with the vaccine. > Do you get more blood clots from being pregnant or from being on the pill? Again, same with the vaccine. COVID itself causes clots, in a very substantial percentage of hospitalized patients. "The benefits of this medical intervention are worthwhile, despite the risks, given the alternative" is precisely the point being made.

endisneigh 6y ago
> Same with the vaccine. No, because there are other vaccines that don't give you blood clots at all. Your entire point is moot. Pausing temporarily to investigate is hardly controversial. The comparison with birth control is nonsensical. A vaccination for COVID is not the same as getting birth control. Even if it was, why would you get J&J if you could get Pfizer that doesn't have the same issue? If all vaccinations had the same blood clotting issue then perhaps you and the original poster would have a point. Given a huge disparity between them with regards to blood clotting taking a moment to investigate this is simply prudent. Making nonsensical comparisons to birth control, well, is not.
- ceejayoz 6y ago
  > No, because there are other vaccines that don't give you blood clots at all. Not enough to go around. Pfizer's goal is 2B doses (1B people) this year. Moderna's is even smaller. 8B people in the world.
  - endisneigh 6y ago
    Sure, but J&J isn't being permanently discontinued. Why are you against simply pausing vaccinations to investigate this? If the USA was this prudent with COVID in its beginning we wouldn't even be having this conversation. Your argument would be reasonable if it was being permanently suspended.
    - ceejayoz 6y ago