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> Is the world getting safer? I think so. Is the risk of large scale war like France is planning for decreasing? I hope s This is very much the feeling people
by AlexB138 5y ago
> Is the world getting safer? I think so. Is the risk of large scale war like France is planning for decreasing? I hope s
This is very much the feeling people had before World War I. The thought was that the web of alliances Bismarck had built would prevent war, similar to your comment about the EU.
It seems that this sort of interdependence acts more like a buffer to prevents small-scale conflicts, but results in large-scale conflict once it does actually come due to a cascading effect of allies being pulled over the brink.
We may not see another real major war in our life-times, if we're lucky, but there's a very real chance our children or grandchildren will see the largest war in history.
- frereubu 5y agoIf anyone is feeling relaxed about the prospect of war, I recommend reading The World of Yesterday by Stefan Zweig, which is about exactly this moment. it describes the build-up to WWI in Vienna, where the feeling was very much "nobody is stupid enough to start, or be taken in by the idea of, a large-scale war", which was only true until it wasn't. The most chilling aspect of it for me was the way that people who Zwieg had previously considered calm and sensible became rabidly pro-war in a very short space of time.
- chii 5y agoThe large scale war of today must include the nuclear scenario, and i do believe that rationally, nobody would want that. Unless there's some aspect for which a nation would sacrifice for - like religious zealotry.
- Guthur 5y agoReally? Over the last 200 years, at least, how many major conflicts have started for secular politics vs religious politics. I feel there is a heavy skew towards the former.
- DisjointedHunt 5y agoWhat do you think "Jihad" means in the context of the September 11 attacks?
- Guthur 5y agoSorry if you are effected by it, but on the grand scale of conflicts the attack on the trade towers was pretty small. Also if you want to get really nit picky one could argue 9/11 was more motivated by geopolitics.
- bryondowd 5y agoI think the point was that secular wars are generally for resources. Nuclear war practically eliminates the possibility of gaining resources, because you're likely to lose more than you gain as your cities get vaporized. So the drive to start one is significantly lessened. Religious wars on the other hand, all bets are off. You're doing it for salvation, so even if the victor ends up poorer for it materially, it's still worthwhile to start.
- greesil 5y agoAnyone living in the US after September 11th 2001 can tell you how the jingoist button was switched from off to on in the space of a month.
- dopidopHN 5y agoI really worried about the US response to a war. Your population never went through it, they don’t know what that really mean. It’s terrifying honestly.
- ehdjsnwk 5y agoThe American Civil War was incredibly deadly and leveled massive portions of the US. The stereotypical backwardness of the southern states is a product of the damage done. The war was almost 200 years ago and they are still playing catchup due to the structural damage that was done. If the US populace is naive about the prospect of war, it`s not because of lack of exposure.
- genericuser314 5y agoAmericans fixate on our civil war, not on our international wars. "Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant to step the ocean and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia, and Africa combined could not by force take a drink from the Ohio River or make a track on the Blue Ridge in a trial of a thousand years. At what point then is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer. If it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us; it cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide." ~ An American president who was shot by an American citizen on 1865-04-14
- viklove 5y ago> Your population never went through it We have the largest quantity of immigrants in our country than anywhere else in the world. 50+ million immigrants that all bring their varied experiences and war is a part of many of their stories.
- greesil 5y ago
- billfruit 5y agoIncidentally Robert Musil's 'Man of no qualities' is set in Vienna of the same time. Does it also portray something similar?
- somedude895 5y agoIf globalization has one benefit, it's that it makes any war extremely costly for everyone involved, so with how entangled the world's economies are today, it's much more likely that tensions would be solved by means other than large scale all-out war. Though of course there's always a non-zero chance.
- philwelch 5y agoThis is also very much the feeling people had before World War I.
- mikem170 5y agoActually it might be better if we split the world into smaller countries, like 10 million people each. Small countries don't fight big wars. Leopold Khor wrote a book about this, best info link I could quickly find is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv9eJ8miMgA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv9eJ8miMgA
- samus 5y agoSmall countries can still fight lots of small wars among themselves. It's just a question of time until they snowball into larger ones. Also, there is nothing stopping countries conquering or otherwise merging with each other, in which case we'd quickly be back at square one.
- soco 5y agoMaybe I'm nitpicking, but I think "getting safer" or "decreased risk" do not mean "being safe" or "no risk". Black swans do appear and something less probable but with catastrophic implications is totally worth preparing for.
- thrower123 5y agoThe biggest reason that I do not fear any kind of significant European war is that European militaries are so incredibly weak and disorganized. There isn't a single non-US NATO power that has as many men under arms as Belgium did in 1914, and unlike 1914, there are no deep pools of reservists that can be called up and mobilized if those small professional militaries expend themselves.