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The early stages of hyper-inflation can look like an economic boom. Every market is going up (stock, real estate, crypto, commodities, etc). Fantastic, boom-tim
by kenneth 6y ago
The early stages of hyper-inflation can look like an economic boom. Every market is going up (stock, real estate, crypto, commodities, etc). Fantastic, boom-time. But really, it's because we're printing so much money that it's inflating the prices of everything. Yeah, the GDP is going up, but the GDP is measured in USD. Keep in mind that previous hyper-inflation crises (Germany, Hungary, Venezuela, Zimbabwe) were marked by strong stock markets and asset bubbles.
I think it's far more likely that the USD is dropping along with most other currencies as a response to worldwide inflation than a strong economy.
Inflation right now is not up as measured by the consumer price index. The CPI is made of a basket of common goods. Those goods so far have stayed steady in price, but they are made of component commodities that have gone up vastly over the last year. Iron ore, lumber, corn, and soybean are all up ~2x in the past year. That's a very very bad sign.
I think it's a great time to borrow a bunch of money and put it into inflation-proof assets. Real estate in particular (via diversified funds) seems like the best hedge. A basket of crypto, stocks, and commodities seems smart too. I would avoid bonds because lenders get screwed by inflation.
I generally think modern monetary theory is completely bogus.
- CynicusRex 6y agoDon't touch crypto“currencies” for they are pyramid schemes rife with fraud, scams, and the prices are artificially inflated with other imaginary tokens. The only thing it does is increase the wealth inequality even more.
- tartoran 6y agoYou think BTC will collapse or you’re talking about alternate coins?
- staticman2 6y agoYou sound like someone who thinks they understand economics because they read alarming blogs. This is the same instinct that causes anti-vaxxers to think they understand medicine because they read alarming blogs. Any moron can start an alarming blog. Be careful.
- blippage 6y agoI can't find it now, but Nassim Taleb gave some interesting stats showing that inflation figures can be low for a long time, but inexplicably explodes. As he said: "Inflation Is Like Ketchup in the Bottle. Nothing Comes out and Then Suddenly…" After the banking crisis in 2008, interest rates around the world have been low, and in some Western countries the lowest on records stretching back hundreds of years. It doesn't seem to have occurred to many "Jeez, that doesn't sound right."