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That doesn't come close to sports. - Sports is 11 people. Business is thousands. - Sports people are literally recorded for every step they take. CEOs not so

That doesn't come close to sports. - Sports is 11 people. Business is thousands. - Sports people are literally recorded for every step they take. CEOs not so much. - Attribution is whole different issue when you've got a years long strategy. By contrast in sports there's rarely a player left from the team of 10 years ago. - Sports are made to be repeatable. Business evolves.

WalterBright 6y ago
Every decision CEOs make is recorded. And attribution on sports success is also related to the other team members, the coach, the support given to the team, the infrastructure of the sport, the team doctors, etc. Sports teams definitely have years long strategies. I'm just not buying your claim that sports stars can justify their extraordinary salaries while CEOs cannot.
- lordnacho 6y ago
  > Every decision CEOs make is recorded No it isn't? You're comparing a literal where-was-Ronaldo-at-frame-768 with what the CEO does in his office all day. There's no way he's recorded in the same detail. With sports you can say "this guy is the fastest, he will outrun everyone and that's useful". Or "this guy provided x assists". Or "this guy saved x number of shots". Players take shots many many times, so you can separate the good ones from the bad ones, due to high n. There's no comparably clear measurement you can make on a CEO, because there aren't that many strategic decisions to make, and they aren't repeated. Once you've decided to buy that VR goggle startup, it won't be there anymore to tell you what would have happened otherwise. All you can have is a relatively small number of facts from which you can build a story. > And attribution on sports success is also related to the other team members, the coach, the support given to the team, the infrastructure of the sport, the team doctors, etc. Sports teams definitely have years long strategies. High number of observations and low number of team members in sports allows you to at least guess at replacement value. Eg LeBron really is better than the next guy, because we can see what happens when he's not there. And every game is comparable because it's set up that way. With business the landscape changes from the outcomes of the decisions, so it's pretty hard to figure out the counterfactuals.
  - WalterBright 6y ago
    Um, decisions are recorded in meeting minutes. They're also on record because they get implemented. Players do a lot of unrecorded influential moves, like team-building, mentoring, training, etc. The game environment changes, too, as you're up against different teams, and teams evolve their strategy just like businesses do. The players change, the teams change, the strategies change, the other teams change, all on a constant basis.
    - lordnacho 6y ago
      The key is repeatability in the stats. You can play wide, you can play with a high line, etc. But there's loads of games to look at, and you can see how one decision works vs another, because there's repeated experiments. Granted, modelling isn't some sort of objective thing, but you have better comparability. Business is somewhere else on this scale.

WalterBright 6y ago

Every decision CEOs make is recorded. And attribution on sports success is also related to the other team members, the coach, the support given to the team, the infrastructure of the sport, the team doctors, etc. Sports teams definitely have years long strategies. I'm just not buying your claim that sports stars can justify their extraordinary salaries while CEOs cannot.

lordnacho 6y ago
> Every decision CEOs make is recorded No it isn't? You're comparing a literal where-was-Ronaldo-at-frame-768 with what the CEO does in his office all day. There's no way he's recorded in the same detail. With sports you can say "this guy is the fastest, he will outrun everyone and that's useful". Or "this guy provided x assists". Or "this guy saved x number of shots". Players take shots many many times, so you can separate the good ones from the bad ones, due to high n. There's no comparably clear measurement you can make on a CEO, because there aren't that many strategic decisions to make, and they aren't repeated. Once you've decided to buy that VR goggle startup, it won't be there anymore to tell you what would have happened otherwise. All you can have is a relatively small number of facts from which you can build a story. > And attribution on sports success is also related to the other team members, the coach, the support given to the team, the infrastructure of the sport, the team doctors, etc. Sports teams definitely have years long strategies. High number of observations and low number of team members in sports allows you to at least guess at replacement value. Eg LeBron really is better than the next guy, because we can see what happens when he's not there. And every game is comparable because it's set up that way. With business the landscape changes from the outcomes of the decisions, so it's pretty hard to figure out the counterfactuals.
- WalterBright 6y ago
  Um, decisions are recorded in meeting minutes. They're also on record because they get implemented. Players do a lot of unrecorded influential moves, like team-building, mentoring, training, etc. The game environment changes, too, as you're up against different teams, and teams evolve their strategy just like businesses do. The players change, the teams change, the strategies change, the other teams change, all on a constant basis.
  - lordnacho 6y ago
    The key is repeatability in the stats. You can play wide, you can play with a high line, etc. But there's loads of games to look at, and you can see how one decision works vs another, because there's repeated experiments. Granted, modelling isn't some sort of objective thing, but you have better comparability. Business is somewhere else on this scale.