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Asymptomatic transmission is the concept in question. Symptomatic transmission is the typical case -- you cough, sneeze, etc., and give it to others. There's s
by timr 6y ago
Asymptomatic transmission is the concept in question. Symptomatic transmission is the typical case -- you cough, sneeze, etc., and give it to others.
There's still quite a bit of debate over this question, despite the article's insistence that the matter is settled. The data supporting it comes mostly from modeling studies, and real-world data is thin on the ground. Mostly anecdotes.
We have lots of examples of pre-symptomatic (or minimally-symptomatic) transmission for other illnesses, but these tend to be limited (e.g. spread within households), and it's always been a bit of a stretch to make the claim that completely healthy people are spreading diseases widely in "super-spreader" events via casual encounters. Does it happen? Sure. Is it common? Ehhhh.
Even with Covid, we know that the majority of transmission (something like 80%) occurs within households. Of the remainder, as TFA notes, there's an "overdispersion", where a few people are responsible for most of the spread. Is it really likely that these "superspreader" people are mostly completely healthy, without symptoms, and yet unknowingly spreading it to vast numbers of people? Or is that just something that we've found a few times, and makes the most memorable anecdotes?
It is certainly not the hypothesis you would favor based on parsimony alone. If you were a betting person, you'd probably put your money on the idea that someone is a little bit sick (but not so sick as to stay home in bed), and the disease can spread by aerosol or droplet with low probability. That's a much simpler explanation for the same pattern: someone has a tickle in their throat or a slight fever, but goes to the restaurant/office/wherever anyway. Set the probability of transmission to a low p-value, and let the poisson distribution do the rest. Just by chance alone, you will see rare occasions where large(r) groups of people get infected.
- watwut 6y agoI had typo. But AFAIK, asymptomatic transmission is not novel concept. We have been learning about it in elementary school in the context of other diseases. There is absolutely nothing new about it as concept. It is not something that appeared with covid first time in history of diseases.
- neilwilson 6y agoIf it was a concept in this situation we could easily prove it. Get people who pass a lateral flow test or PCR test into a room and measure their pre-sympomatic viral output. Why hasn't that experiment been done?
- dTal 6y agoIt has? Repeatedly? This is the news from three days ago: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-symptoms-report-coronavirus-ons-b1828361.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-symptoms-rep...
- timr 6y agoShowing that people with Covid can be asymptomatic is not evidence that asymptomatic people transmit the virus, and the article you linked to just leaps directly to the conclusion. Here's an actual paper from 2021 that shows that -- as you might expect -- that exhaled particles correlate with age, weight and viral load: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2021830118 In other words: older, fatter, sicker people are more likely to shed the kind of particles that facilitate transmission. They make a point of noting that nobody in their test under the age of 26 was a significant source of aerosol. Anyway, GP is not wrong. We could do these experiments, instead of just guessing.