24 ms·

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nat

Judging by the comments in this thread, it seems a lot of people are still unaware that: 1. Gain of function research primarily uses samples collected from nature, and seeks to stimulate their evolution in as natural a way as possible to learn how viruses evolve in nature. If such viruses were to escape the lab, they would appear "natural" 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak, because the US was itself funding gain of function research on novel coronaviruses in the Wuhan BSL4 lab 3. Lab leaks happen more often than most people realize[1] [1]https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/20/18260669/deadly-pathogens-escape-lab-smallpox-bird-flu https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/20/18260669/deadly...

newacct583 6y ago
> 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak Inherently? Of course not. But does xenophobia motivate a lot of this argument? It certainly seems to. Look at how quickly proponents of this nonsense jump from detached discussion about the possibilities to outraged condemnation of the PRC. Just read the discussion here in this thread. If you only wanted to discuss the lab and the virus and try to put relative likelihoods on the natural evolution vs. Andromeda Strain theories, that would be one thing. But... that doesn't seem to be all you want.
- danielrpa 6y ago
  Just because the motivation for the argument is bad, it doesn't mean that the argument itself is bad. I think you agree by saying it's not "inherently" xenophobic. All we need to do to take xenophobia out of this discussion is to not be xenophobic ourselves. The xenophobes may talk to themselves. But let's make sure we are talking about this problem instead of falling for the "guilty by association fallacy".
  - newacct583 6y ago
    > Just because the motivation for the argument is bad, it doesn't mean that the argument itself is bad. Inherently? Of course not. But in practice it tends to act as a good prior for detecting bullshit. How many of these people would really be making the same argument in this way had the virus appeared in Bonn or Montreal? And again, to repeat: in this particular situation we have a very acceptable, very convincing, very obvious hypothesis for covid origins that simply does not require trafficking in badly-motivated argument. At the end of the day there's no strong evidence, we all agree on that. So I choose to believe something obvious that fits the data and patterns previous events, and others... choose to believe that a (literal!) conspiracy is afoot acting to cover up wrongdoing by an evil foreign nation. And that's bad.
- bruiseralmighty 6y ago
  Excuse me but PRC = People's Republic of China correct? How would it be xenophobic to criticize a government? This conflation is so pervasive and toxic to the discourse. The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not. At a minimum, they actively tried to cover-up an investigation into a leak and leaned on the World Health Organization in order to do so. This had two negative affects globally. First is the slowed response time from the rest of the World as they were assured this was mild and contained. Second is the rightfully degraded trust in the WHO which will impede ongoing and future efforts not only to stop Covid-19 but also future pandemics. The reason right-wing media sources are the only ones talking about this is because they are the only ones with the freedom to do so. If we do not like that some of these source are implying that Chinese people as a group are to blame, then that is an invitation for more mainstream outlets to stop carrying water for the Chinese and American governments. Be upfront, the WHO was compromised by the Chinese government. There could have been a leak, a hypothesis that is looking more likely with each passing week. If this was in fact a leak, then gain of function research could also be implicated. This produces a conflict of interest with experts in the field because their funding and research may utilize gain of function methods. Done. This was a known unknown over a year ago, but stifled due to political interests. The casting of xenophobic aspersions onto the right-leaning media sources who got this correct is an attempt at damage control for the same political interests. I get it. Admitting those media sources were better when it really mattered means fewer people will get vaccinated and we may get a Trump 2.0. That is the political price of lying and getting caught. Jacketing all these conversations with underlying accusations of "well they were right but also racist" is not going to be a win. If you want to win you have to actually be better.
  - newacct583 6y ago
    With all respect, this sounds very much like "It's not xenophobia if your fear of the foreigners is justified".
    - bruiseralmighty 6y ago
      > The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not. I don't know how much clearer I can make a distinction between a people and their government in words. I do not consider myself responsible for the decisions of Dick Cheney and Obama. Nor would I consider a random Chinese person responsible for the actions of Tedros Adhanom or Xi Jinping. I would find someone blaming a Chinese or Chinese-American person on a subway for the coronavirus misguided and wrong. I would find someone critiquing the Chinese governments response to the virus very justifiable.
eightysixfour 6y ago
I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true: * The virus is unlikely to have been engineered (in the way I described above) and leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was the result of gain of function research and it leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was a natural research sample and it leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was introduced by an animal/person who traveled to the wet market. Some of these are more likely than others, and an individual's own calibration for what is likely or unlikely will probably come into play more than evidence in the short term and possibly long term as well. I can say the vast majority of us are not qualified to answer the question either way though.
- loveistheanswer 6y ago
  >I can say the vast majority of us are not qualified to answer the question either way though. It's also worth noting that even the leading experts can get these things wrong, as was the case with the Sverdlovsk lab leak. Soviet authorities covered it up by blaming local meat markets, and leading US experts concurred with them, only to reverse their conclusion 6 years later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak#Accident https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak#Acci...
  - AdamJacobMuller 6y ago
    Never heard about Sverdlosk, interesting story. > Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar issued a decree to begin demilitarization of Compound 19 in 1992. However, the facility continued its work. Not a single journalist has been allowed onto the premises since 1992. About 200 soldiers with Rottweiler dogs still patrol the complex.
  - eightysixfour 6y ago
    Absolutely, without multiple trust-worthy first-person accounts backed by evidence, the likely best we can hope for is an eventually-consistent story that we are "pretty sure" about. Considering the size of the impact on the world, that will take a long time.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
arcticbull 6y ago
It's also not xenophobic to suggest the possibility of a lab leak because lab leaks happen regardless of who's doing the research; even at BSL-4 facilities, mistakes are made. And also because there were two separate SARS-CoV-1 leaks/outbreaks from Chinese labs which the PRC admitted to. [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/
- godelski 6y ago
  I just want to add: "A government is not the people and the people are not the government." Just in case this needs to be stated for anyone here or reading. If you disagree with a people's government that doesn't mean you should treat the people of said government in a critical manner. Their views do not necessarily reflect that of their government (often they do not, just look at us here in America where criticizing the government is the great American past time)
  - clairity 6y ago
    the american experiment in democracy was to make the government synonymous with the people. certainly that was pulled back a bit by the republican (as in republic, not the political party) elements by our founders, who were themselves 'elites' of the time. in china, the communist party is meant to be the same: a party of (all) the people. certainly xenophobia expresses itself acutely in mediopolitical contexts where power and money are on the line, but also in forums like this where such ego boosts are basically costless. it's not really about a distinction between the people and the government.
    - jokethrowaway 6y ago
      I'm not sure where you got the idea that the American experiment is about making the government synonymous with the people. The American experiment was all about splitting the governmental power among different entities, keeping the government small and letting the people preserve freedom and power - while still being protected by the government. The constitution is a tool to prevent the government from overreaching - and it's been successful at that. Unfortunately, this experiment also grew in the largest and most warmongering government in the world. To me, the USA are the proof that minarchism doesn't work and that we need to try anarcho-capitalism.
throwaway4good 6y ago
You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Read the section in the WHO report on COVID19 and listen to the reputable international scientist that actually went and visited the lab and interviewed the people who worked there. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the-virus https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the...
- rebelos 6y ago
  To think that China couldn't or wouldn't carefully control this situation and what information is available to external parties is being credulous to the point of this sounding like propaganda. They did everything they could to downplay the severity of the issue for months while they had people in hazmat suits trying to decon Wuhan.
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    Why didn't they do the same for the SARS-CoV-1 leaks that happened in Beijing over a decade ago, then?
    - rebelos 6y ago
      That's a terrible counterargument full of logical holes coming from someone who's supposedly a "PhD in virology". But you're also a green account that's so rabidly and suspiciously coming to China's defense throughout these comments that I literally assign no credence whatsoever to anything you've said. Several other scientists here have already eviscerated the arguments in your r/science post as well. I don't know who you are, but "unbiased virologist commenter" is definitely not it.
      - jeduehr 6y ago
        Hey you can literally look up my name in the post I linked and find all the evidence in the world that I am who I say I am. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... James Duehr, PhD Here's my google scholar page: https://scholar.google.com.co/citations?user=8wCwbNUAAAAJ&hl=en https://scholar.google.com.co/citations?user=8wCwbNUAAAAJ&hl... Here's my PhD thesis: https://search.proquest.com/openview/8e7e18ee1e41133ae74a719778b837d1/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y https://search.proquest.com/openview/8e7e18ee1e41133ae74a719... Sorry I'm a green account but I forgot the password to the HN account I made like 10 years ago. I mostly lurk so I haven't logged in in a looong time. Since before password managers became convenient or commonplace. Like 3 email addresses ago. I also wrote a pre-formed response to the criticism that I shouldn't be trusted in my original post, you can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpa9kn/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... and the associated in-depth footnote (For the really hardcore sticklers among you) here (#10): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0nNzLc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0...
yumraj 6y ago
> It's not xenophobic for people from the US.... While racism and xenophobia is real, it has been and is being used very effectively, especially by China but others too, to deflect/blunt genuine criticisms and claims. Just as an amusing example, we talk openly about UK variant, SA variant, Brazil variant - but never talk about original as Wuhan variant - it is simply coronavirus.
- mywittyname 6y ago
  It's cuts both ways. Some of the UK Politicians happily throwing around "China/Wuhan virus" got butt-hurt on Twitter when people called the B117 strain the "UK Variant." We shouldn't be using that terminology for variants either. While I understand that people largely use location names for the sake of convenience, it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations.
  - proc0 6y ago
    Really? Why would it bother anyone there is a strain after your city/country/continent? Seriously I can't think of one reason it would bother me. It's so much easier to NOT take things personally. It's easier, and feels better.
  - muskox2 6y ago
    In my opinion, location names are the easiest and most memorable way to refer to variants. The tradition is as old as the "Spanish flu"... which isn't from Spain at all.
    - DharmaPolice 6y ago
      They might be the easiest way to refer to variants but it does seem to incentivise countries/regions not disclosing/testing for new variants in the first place.
  - ChemSpider 6y ago
    "Some...". Well, a few right wing idiots. Even the BBC calls it UK variant: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820 > it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations. I am from one of these locations and could not care less.
allemagne 6y ago
This top comment and the thread caused by posting it actually seems to be the main source of heated discussions about whether lab leak suggestions are xenophobic or not.
jeduehr 6y ago
Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, and a few months back I wrote a very lengthy and involved piece full of sources. And in there, I describe exactly how wrong your point 1 is. And how misguided your point 3 is. The post also won a "best of r/science 2020" award! You can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...
- rPlayer6554 6y ago
  I'm sorry man, but wouldn't you be able to just reply directly if you feel inclined to disagree with the parent. I'm not saying HN is entitled to your opinion but it feels a little lazy and disrespectful to the parent to say "you're wrong" then drop a link off site to a massive general summary of the situation in order to respond to a few specific points. Especially since point 3 has a source from a decently reputable news site with reputable sources.
  - jeduehr 6y ago
    Hi, I actually ended up responding below to point 3 in particular but I also respond to it in my original post. Very few, if any of these arguments are novel. The reason you will find extremely few people with actual credentials in the science we're discussing in these discussions is that working scientists don't have the time or will to get into these debates with people who wouldn't have the faintest idea how to actually conduct the research they're criticizing. That post I linked took like dozens and dozens of man hours to write, workshop, source, and edit. And I wrote it so I could link it in situations like this, and not repeat myself dozens or hundreds of times. Personally, I'm studying for the biggest exam of my professional life at the moment, and I'm procrastinating here because I find these discussions so horrifying. This entire thread could be a valuable case study in the Dunning Krueger effect. Not saying it's not worth talking about, but rather that the amount of time and effort it takes to refute bullshit is several magnitudes more than the amount of effort it takes to create it. In my case, that's 10+ years studying viruses so people on the internet with no credentials can tell me I'm wrong.
tinus_hn 6y ago
It’s because they have been trained to think: corona leaked from a lab is tin foil hat conspiracy theory.
- AndrewBissell 6y ago
  Heh when can we start discussing the "lab intentional release" hypothesis?
  - tinus_hn 6y ago
    As far as I’m concerned you can start right now, I’m not afraid of ideas. I think however that, unless someone makes a really big mistake, it’ll never be possible to prove such a hypothesis.
    - AndrewBissell 6y ago
      Of course; if we wait around for documentary proof of covert operations to emerge it almost invariably arrives long after the point where anything can be done with the information. There are oddities in the whole timeline which stand out to me. The social media videos of people keeling over in streets and buildings in Wuhan from the virus, which doesn't appear to be a genuine phenomenon of its pathology and therefore looks planted for psyop purposes. The CDC behaving so incompetently around testing and acknowledging the threat of the virus that it beggars belief (see: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cdc-response-speci/special-report-how-u-s-cdc-missed-chances-to-spot-covids-silent-spread-idUSKBN29R1E7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cdc-re...). No one from the global ruling class succumbing to the virus even as it claims multiple Covid-skeptical leaders in Africa where its impact is otherwise quite muted. Cuomo, Newsom, and Whitmer implementing policies which grossly amplified nursing home deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. Various maneuvers of public consent management, e.g. "15 Days to Slow the Spread" to get people to start lockdowns, followed by "we have to keep going until we get the vaccines" alongside zero investment in new ICU capacity and even reductions in hospital staff. The obvious wealth transfers and consolidation of the economy away from the middle class and small businesses which has occurred, along with the accelerated adoption of surveillable tech platforms as the primary means of interpersonal communication. Doctors reduced to begging on Twitter for people to run trials on repurposed generic treatments while all the stops are pulled out for the vaccines (even the Washington Post has recently acknowledged that financial incentives and political considerations are preventing cheap drugs from getting a fair shake: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/08/ivermectin-covid-drug/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/08/ivermectin-...). But yeah, certainly nothing I can point to as hard proof.
jokethrowaway 6y ago
We're seeing this reaction because of the bi-partisan view of the world which is so widespread in the USA. These days there is more interesting data in what is considered kosher on mainstream media and what is labelled a conspiracy theory, than the information itself.
kjrose 6y ago
Having worked in a lab, this is dead on truth. The fact of the matter is labs are not perfect and a leak is more likely than you'd think.
ramblerman 6y ago
> It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak, because the US was itself funding gain of function research What an odd way of thinking. So if there actually was a lab leak, and the US wasn't doing this research we couldn't investigate it?
gadf 6y ago
What you doin, mouse? Just talking to grandpa Oh, more stories. Yeah. What was it this time, the iPhone? Or Twitter? Nah, grandpa was telling me about the time, they, as a culture, the West, found a way to rationalize their anti China sentiment. He looked so proud, his eyes were shining. I guess it must have been been a big relief for them. What was? Having a way to hate them that was okay. Your really think grandpa know what's he's talking about? He's nearing 180 real time, you know. Neuroimplant degeneration. Agree regression psychosis. He's not crazy! No no i know - They just grew up in the decline of the West, and the rise of the old world. It was hard for them. I know, i know. It's just - Just what? Never mind. No. what? Never mind! Oh, It's just so fucking 20th century. And you're a historyetician, absolutist! I'm not, i just - how can you care about him whining about his dying "culture"? So? It's true, isn't it. And I hate how you do that. Do what? Pretend like everything in of the past is not real. But it's not fucking real! It's just stories. That's why they call it his-tory! You're such a dumbass. I'm going to mum's. Later dickweed. Cuntface. He's just sucking you in - Faggot. Oooh, retro - She stopped at the door, and turned, eyes on me in a moment - It wasn't easy to see everything they knew stripped away and replaced - eyes on me, and closed it. The old building was silent. It disapproved. It was autumn. It would rain soon.
Spooky23 6y ago
Any discussion at this point is unproductive because it’s too soon. In the US, all things are aligned with Team A vs Team B. Better to collect data and present next year.
jb775 6y ago
Pretty crazy that people have been placing so much criticism on response-related aspects, but don't have any interest in the root cause. This entire mess could start over from scratch tomorrow with a completely different virus...but who cares, let's argue about the political response. I think this is in large part a display of the power the media has to steer what a population thinks about. They clearly don't want the root cause investigated, or even thought about for that matter. We should go one step deeper and question why that is so, and who stands to benefit from that?
Iv 6y ago
I feel the idiotic claims by the Trump admin (it is a bioweapon! It was released by China to make me look bad!) made it hard to actually push forward the strong arguments in favor of an accidental lab release. There was a lot of controversy around the P4 lab in Wuhan when it was built, as this was seen an unnecessary risk. There has been breaches of security protocols several times in the past. The fact that a new virus would first appear in that city would have been quite a coincidence that could not be ruled out, but the accidental lab release should always have been an hypothesis.
tjs8rj 6y ago
For your second point: it’s not racist, but not because the US was funding it, but because it’s possible to criticize a regime and failures of a country without criticizing the ethnicity of people. The only reason racism ever gets conflated here is because people are implicitly aware of the fact that China is an ethnostate for all intents and purposes.
tikiman163 6y ago
Gain of function research still uses genetically tagged samples. They insert minor inactive sequences who's purpose is solely for identifying when there's been a lab leak. These samples are not Engineered, but still identifiable using DNA/RNA sequencing.

newacct583 6y ago

> 2. It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak Inherently? Of course not. But does xenophobia motivate a lot of this argument? It certainly seems to. Look at how quickly proponents of this nonsense jump from detached discussion about the possibilities to outraged condemnation of the PRC. Just read the discussion here in this thread. If you only wanted to discuss the lab and the virus and try to put relative likelihoods on the natural evolution vs. Andromeda Strain theories, that would be one thing. But... that doesn't seem to be all you want.

danielrpa 6y ago
Just because the motivation for the argument is bad, it doesn't mean that the argument itself is bad. I think you agree by saying it's not "inherently" xenophobic. All we need to do to take xenophobia out of this discussion is to not be xenophobic ourselves. The xenophobes may talk to themselves. But let's make sure we are talking about this problem instead of falling for the "guilty by association fallacy".
- newacct583 6y ago
  > Just because the motivation for the argument is bad, it doesn't mean that the argument itself is bad. Inherently? Of course not. But in practice it tends to act as a good prior for detecting bullshit. How many of these people would really be making the same argument in this way had the virus appeared in Bonn or Montreal? And again, to repeat: in this particular situation we have a very acceptable, very convincing, very obvious hypothesis for covid origins that simply does not require trafficking in badly-motivated argument. At the end of the day there's no strong evidence, we all agree on that. So I choose to believe something obvious that fits the data and patterns previous events, and others... choose to believe that a (literal!) conspiracy is afoot acting to cover up wrongdoing by an evil foreign nation. And that's bad.
bruiseralmighty 6y ago
Excuse me but PRC = People's Republic of China correct? How would it be xenophobic to criticize a government? This conflation is so pervasive and toxic to the discourse. The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not. At a minimum, they actively tried to cover-up an investigation into a leak and leaned on the World Health Organization in order to do so. This had two negative affects globally. First is the slowed response time from the rest of the World as they were assured this was mild and contained. Second is the rightfully degraded trust in the WHO which will impede ongoing and future efforts not only to stop Covid-19 but also future pandemics. The reason right-wing media sources are the only ones talking about this is because they are the only ones with the freedom to do so. If we do not like that some of these source are implying that Chinese people as a group are to blame, then that is an invitation for more mainstream outlets to stop carrying water for the Chinese and American governments. Be upfront, the WHO was compromised by the Chinese government. There could have been a leak, a hypothesis that is looking more likely with each passing week. If this was in fact a leak, then gain of function research could also be implicated. This produces a conflict of interest with experts in the field because their funding and research may utilize gain of function methods. Done. This was a known unknown over a year ago, but stifled due to political interests. The casting of xenophobic aspersions onto the right-leaning media sources who got this correct is an attempt at damage control for the same political interests. I get it. Admitting those media sources were better when it really mattered means fewer people will get vaccinated and we may get a Trump 2.0. That is the political price of lying and getting caught. Jacketing all these conversations with underlying accusations of "well they were right but also racist" is not going to be a win. If you want to win you have to actually be better.
- newacct583 6y ago
  With all respect, this sounds very much like "It's not xenophobia if your fear of the foreigners is justified".
  - bruiseralmighty 6y ago
    > The Chinese government does bear some of the responsibility here. The Chinese people do not. I don't know how much clearer I can make a distinction between a people and their government in words. I do not consider myself responsible for the decisions of Dick Cheney and Obama. Nor would I consider a random Chinese person responsible for the actions of Tedros Adhanom or Xi Jinping. I would find someone blaming a Chinese or Chinese-American person on a subway for the coronavirus misguided and wrong. I would find someone critiquing the Chinese governments response to the virus very justifiable.

eightysixfour 6y ago

I feel like people are doing a poor job distinguishing between "engineered" and "leaked." There is, from my understanding, reasonable evidence to conclude the virus was not engineered from the perspective of "we took genes from one virus and moved them to this virus," but there's no evidence disproving the idea that it was the result of gain of function research. My personal feeling is that these statements are true: * The virus is unlikely to have been engineered (in the way I described above) and leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was the result of gain of function research and it leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was a natural research sample and it leaked. * There is circumstantial evidence the virus was introduced by an animal/person who traveled to the wet market. Some of these are more likely than others, and an individual's own calibration for what is likely or unlikely will probably come into play more than evidence in the short term and possibly long term as well. I can say the vast majority of us are not qualified to answer the question either way though.

loveistheanswer 6y ago
>I can say the vast majority of us are not qualified to answer the question either way though. It's also worth noting that even the leading experts can get these things wrong, as was the case with the Sverdlovsk lab leak. Soviet authorities covered it up by blaming local meat markets, and leading US experts concurred with them, only to reverse their conclusion 6 years later. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak#Accident https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sverdlovsk_anthrax_leak#Acci...
- AdamJacobMuller 6y ago
  Never heard about Sverdlosk, interesting story. > Russian Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar issued a decree to begin demilitarization of Compound 19 in 1992. However, the facility continued its work. Not a single journalist has been allowed onto the premises since 1992. About 200 soldiers with Rottweiler dogs still patrol the complex.
- eightysixfour 6y ago
  Absolutely, without multiple trust-worthy first-person accounts backed by evidence, the likely best we can hope for is an eventually-consistent story that we are "pretty sure" about. Considering the size of the impact on the world, that will take a long time.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

arcticbull 6y ago

It's also not xenophobic to suggest the possibility of a lab leak because lab leaks happen regardless of who's doing the research; even at BSL-4 facilities, mistakes are made. And also because there were two separate SARS-CoV-1 leaks/outbreaks from Chinese labs which the PRC admitted to. [1] [1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC403836/

godelski 6y ago
I just want to add: "A government is not the people and the people are not the government." Just in case this needs to be stated for anyone here or reading. If you disagree with a people's government that doesn't mean you should treat the people of said government in a critical manner. Their views do not necessarily reflect that of their government (often they do not, just look at us here in America where criticizing the government is the great American past time)
- clairity 6y ago
  the american experiment in democracy was to make the government synonymous with the people. certainly that was pulled back a bit by the republican (as in republic, not the political party) elements by our founders, who were themselves 'elites' of the time. in china, the communist party is meant to be the same: a party of (all) the people. certainly xenophobia expresses itself acutely in mediopolitical contexts where power and money are on the line, but also in forums like this where such ego boosts are basically costless. it's not really about a distinction between the people and the government.
  - jokethrowaway 6y ago
    I'm not sure where you got the idea that the American experiment is about making the government synonymous with the people. The American experiment was all about splitting the governmental power among different entities, keeping the government small and letting the people preserve freedom and power - while still being protected by the government. The constitution is a tool to prevent the government from overreaching - and it's been successful at that. Unfortunately, this experiment also grew in the largest and most warmongering government in the world. To me, the USA are the proof that minarchism doesn't work and that we need to try anarcho-capitalism.

throwaway4good 6y ago

You are missing the important bit: The lab leak would have to be covered up by the Chinese authorities and the WHO would some how have had to be in on it. Read the section in the WHO report on COVID19 and listen to the reputable international scientist that actually went and visited the lab and interviewed the people who worked there. https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the-virus https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus/origins-of-the...

rebelos 6y ago
To think that China couldn't or wouldn't carefully control this situation and what information is available to external parties is being credulous to the point of this sounding like propaganda. They did everything they could to downplay the severity of the issue for months while they had people in hazmat suits trying to decon Wuhan.
- jeduehr 6y ago
  Why didn't they do the same for the SARS-CoV-1 leaks that happened in Beijing over a decade ago, then?
  - rebelos 6y ago
    That's a terrible counterargument full of logical holes coming from someone who's supposedly a "PhD in virology". But you're also a green account that's so rabidly and suspiciously coming to China's defense throughout these comments that I literally assign no credence whatsoever to anything you've said. Several other scientists here have already eviscerated the arguments in your r/science post as well. I don't know who you are, but "unbiased virologist commenter" is definitely not it.
    - jeduehr 6y ago
      Hey you can literally look up my name in the post I linked and find all the evidence in the world that I am who I say I am. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... James Duehr, PhD Here's my google scholar page: https://scholar.google.com.co/citations?user=8wCwbNUAAAAJ&hl=en https://scholar.google.com.co/citations?user=8wCwbNUAAAAJ&hl... Here's my PhD thesis: https://search.proquest.com/openview/8e7e18ee1e41133ae74a719778b837d1/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=18750&diss=y https://search.proquest.com/openview/8e7e18ee1e41133ae74a719... Sorry I'm a green account but I forgot the password to the HN account I made like 10 years ago. I mostly lurk so I haven't logged in in a looong time. Since before password managers became convenient or commonplace. Like 3 email addresses ago. I also wrote a pre-formed response to the criticism that I shouldn't be trusted in my original post, you can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/fqpa9kn/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did... and the associated in-depth footnote (For the really hardcore sticklers among you) here (#10): https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0nNzLc/view?usp=sharing https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vRbACWf90iBC35xNOwlI5bWcUq0...

yumraj 6y ago

> It's not xenophobic for people from the US.... While racism and xenophobia is real, it has been and is being used very effectively, especially by China but others too, to deflect/blunt genuine criticisms and claims. Just as an amusing example, we talk openly about UK variant, SA variant, Brazil variant - but never talk about original as Wuhan variant - it is simply coronavirus.

mywittyname 6y ago
It's cuts both ways. Some of the UK Politicians happily throwing around "China/Wuhan virus" got butt-hurt on Twitter when people called the B117 strain the "UK Variant." We shouldn't be using that terminology for variants either. While I understand that people largely use location names for the sake of convenience, it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations.
- proc0 6y ago
  Really? Why would it bother anyone there is a strain after your city/country/continent? Seriously I can't think of one reason it would bother me. It's so much easier to NOT take things personally. It's easier, and feels better.
- muskox2 6y ago
  In my opinion, location names are the easiest and most memorable way to refer to variants. The tradition is as old as the "Spanish flu"... which isn't from Spain at all.
  - DharmaPolice 6y ago
    They might be the easiest way to refer to variants but it does seem to incentivise countries/regions not disclosing/testing for new variants in the first place.
- ChemSpider 6y ago
  "Some...". Well, a few right wing idiots. Even the BBC calls it UK variant: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820 https://www.bbc.com/news/health-55659820 > it really doesn't feel good to be a person from one of those locations. I am from one of these locations and could not care less.

allemagne 6y ago

This top comment and the thread caused by posting it actually seems to be the main source of heated discussions about whether lab leak suggestions are xenophobic or not.

jeduehr 6y ago

Hi, I have a PhD in virology focused on emerging viruses, and a few months back I wrote a very lengthy and involved piece full of sources. And in there, I describe exactly how wrong your point 1 is. And how misguided your point 3 is. The post also won a "best of r/science 2020" award! You can find it here: https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did_not_come_from_the_wuhan_institute_of/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/gk6y95/covid19_did...

rPlayer6554 6y ago
I'm sorry man, but wouldn't you be able to just reply directly if you feel inclined to disagree with the parent. I'm not saying HN is entitled to your opinion but it feels a little lazy and disrespectful to the parent to say "you're wrong" then drop a link off site to a massive general summary of the situation in order to respond to a few specific points. Especially since point 3 has a source from a decently reputable news site with reputable sources.
- jeduehr 6y ago
  Hi, I actually ended up responding below to point 3 in particular but I also respond to it in my original post. Very few, if any of these arguments are novel. The reason you will find extremely few people with actual credentials in the science we're discussing in these discussions is that working scientists don't have the time or will to get into these debates with people who wouldn't have the faintest idea how to actually conduct the research they're criticizing. That post I linked took like dozens and dozens of man hours to write, workshop, source, and edit. And I wrote it so I could link it in situations like this, and not repeat myself dozens or hundreds of times. Personally, I'm studying for the biggest exam of my professional life at the moment, and I'm procrastinating here because I find these discussions so horrifying. This entire thread could be a valuable case study in the Dunning Krueger effect. Not saying it's not worth talking about, but rather that the amount of time and effort it takes to refute bullshit is several magnitudes more than the amount of effort it takes to create it. In my case, that's 10+ years studying viruses so people on the internet with no credentials can tell me I'm wrong.

tinus_hn 6y ago

It’s because they have been trained to think: corona leaked from a lab is tin foil hat conspiracy theory.

AndrewBissell 6y ago
Heh when can we start discussing the "lab intentional release" hypothesis?
- tinus_hn 6y ago
  As far as I’m concerned you can start right now, I’m not afraid of ideas. I think however that, unless someone makes a really big mistake, it’ll never be possible to prove such a hypothesis.
  - AndrewBissell 6y ago
    Of course; if we wait around for documentary proof of covert operations to emerge it almost invariably arrives long after the point where anything can be done with the information. There are oddities in the whole timeline which stand out to me. The social media videos of people keeling over in streets and buildings in Wuhan from the virus, which doesn't appear to be a genuine phenomenon of its pathology and therefore looks planted for psyop purposes. The CDC behaving so incompetently around testing and acknowledging the threat of the virus that it beggars belief (see: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cdc-response-speci/special-report-how-u-s-cdc-missed-chances-to-spot-covids-silent-spread-idUSKBN29R1E7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-cdc-re...). No one from the global ruling class succumbing to the virus even as it claims multiple Covid-skeptical leaders in Africa where its impact is otherwise quite muted. Cuomo, Newsom, and Whitmer implementing policies which grossly amplified nursing home deaths in the early stages of the pandemic. Various maneuvers of public consent management, e.g. "15 Days to Slow the Spread" to get people to start lockdowns, followed by "we have to keep going until we get the vaccines" alongside zero investment in new ICU capacity and even reductions in hospital staff. The obvious wealth transfers and consolidation of the economy away from the middle class and small businesses which has occurred, along with the accelerated adoption of surveillable tech platforms as the primary means of interpersonal communication. Doctors reduced to begging on Twitter for people to run trials on repurposed generic treatments while all the stops are pulled out for the vaccines (even the Washington Post has recently acknowledged that financial incentives and political considerations are preventing cheap drugs from getting a fair shake: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/08/ivermectin-covid-drug/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/04/08/ivermectin-...). But yeah, certainly nothing I can point to as hard proof.

jokethrowaway 6y ago

We're seeing this reaction because of the bi-partisan view of the world which is so widespread in the USA. These days there is more interesting data in what is considered kosher on mainstream media and what is labelled a conspiracy theory, than the information itself.

kjrose 6y ago

Having worked in a lab, this is dead on truth. The fact of the matter is labs are not perfect and a leak is more likely than you'd think.

ramblerman 6y ago

> It's not xenophobic for people from the US to suggest the possibility of a lab leak, because the US was itself funding gain of function research What an odd way of thinking. So if there actually was a lab leak, and the US wasn't doing this research we couldn't investigate it?

gadf 6y ago

What you doin, mouse? Just talking to grandpa Oh, more stories. Yeah. What was it this time, the iPhone? Or Twitter? Nah, grandpa was telling me about the time, they, as a culture, the West, found a way to rationalize their anti China sentiment. He looked so proud, his eyes were shining. I guess it must have been been a big relief for them. What was? Having a way to hate them that was okay. Your really think grandpa know what's he's talking about? He's nearing 180 real time, you know. Neuroimplant degeneration. Agree regression psychosis. He's not crazy! No no i know - They just grew up in the decline of the West, and the rise of the old world. It was hard for them. I know, i know. It's just - Just what? Never mind. No. what? Never mind! Oh, It's just so fucking 20th century. And you're a historyetician, absolutist! I'm not, i just - how can you care about him whining about his dying "culture"? So? It's true, isn't it. And I hate how you do that. Do what? Pretend like everything in of the past is not real. But it's not fucking real! It's just stories. That's why they call it his-tory! You're such a dumbass. I'm going to mum's. Later dickweed. Cuntface. He's just sucking you in - Faggot. Oooh, retro - She stopped at the door, and turned, eyes on me in a moment - It wasn't easy to see everything they knew stripped away and replaced - eyes on me, and closed it. The old building was silent. It disapproved. It was autumn. It would rain soon.

Spooky23 6y ago

Any discussion at this point is unproductive because it’s too soon. In the US, all things are aligned with Team A vs Team B. Better to collect data and present next year.

jb775 6y ago

Pretty crazy that people have been placing so much criticism on response-related aspects, but don't have any interest in the root cause. This entire mess could start over from scratch tomorrow with a completely different virus...but who cares, let's argue about the political response. I think this is in large part a display of the power the media has to steer what a population thinks about. They clearly don't want the root cause investigated, or even thought about for that matter. We should go one step deeper and question why that is so, and who stands to benefit from that?

Iv 6y ago

I feel the idiotic claims by the Trump admin (it is a bioweapon! It was released by China to make me look bad!) made it hard to actually push forward the strong arguments in favor of an accidental lab release. There was a lot of controversy around the P4 lab in Wuhan when it was built, as this was seen an unnecessary risk. There has been breaches of security protocols several times in the past. The fact that a new virus would first appear in that city would have been quite a coincidence that could not be ruled out, but the accidental lab release should always have been an hypothesis.

tjs8rj 6y ago

For your second point: it’s not racist, but not because the US was funding it, but because it’s possible to criticize a regime and failures of a country without criticizing the ethnicity of people. The only reason racism ever gets conflated here is because people are implicitly aware of the fact that China is an ethnostate for all intents and purposes.

tikiman163 6y ago

Gain of function research still uses genetically tagged samples. They insert minor inactive sequences who's purpose is solely for identifying when there's been a lab leak. These samples are not Engineered, but still identifiable using DNA/RNA sequencing.