You don't need to guess. The CDC is making daily estimates. As of right now: * 33% of the US population has had at least one dose (19% are fully vaccinated).

You don't need to guess. The CDC is making daily estimates. As of right now: * 33% of the US population has had at least one dose (19% are fully vaccinated). * 42% (25%) of the population over 18. * 76% (57%) of the population over 65 (who are, not incidentally, by far the most likely to experience mortality): https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations These numbers are rapidly increasing, and on top of the ~100-120M that have been infected in the US already (current CDC estimates are that actual cases are around 4x the number reported [1]). And of course, as I said, it's not as if "herd immunity" is a single number that is the same everywhere in the US. Nobody claimed that we're there yet, but given all current data, pessimism is unwarranted. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/geographic-seroprevalence-surveys.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/geog...