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Compared to other Nordic countries Sweden went horribly wrong. On EU-level, about average. Finland did much better without strict lockdowns. Just limit group

by nabla9 6y ago

Compared to other Nordic countries Sweden went horribly wrong. On EU-level, about average. Finland did much better without strict lockdowns. Just limit group events limit restaurants open hours, shut down schools for the worst times etc. Sweden could have saved thousand of people with just slightly more restrictions. Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 as of 6 April 2021. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality Iceland 8.20 Norway 12.72 Finland 15.33 Denmark 41.93 Canada 62.29 Germany 93.02 Netherlands 97.50 Sweden 132.55 France 144.81 UK 191.17 US 169.82 Belgium 203.13 Hungary 224.47 Czech Rep. 254.64

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
The numbers here go from 8 to 254. Couldn't you make most of the countries on this list look good or bad by just adjusting the comparison set?
- nabla9 6y ago
  Sweden has relevant peer group to compare against. Sweden had the ability and resources to get into line with other Nordic countries, but it didn't. The difference is caused by political choices. Sweden fucked up. How Sweden did against Kenya or India is not not as relevant. Kenya and India don't have the same capabilities as Sweden.
  - cjblomqvist 6y ago
    What about Belgium? What's the big difference between Belgium compared to the Nordic countries? Because they've had it a lot worse than Sweden. TLDR; It's possible to cherry pick. And it doesn't lead us anywhere (neither for nor against your hypothesis).
    - nabla9 6y ago
      Belgium did worse. >TLDR; It's possible to cherry pick. I didn't cherry pick. I selected the best reference group. Other Nordic countries are very similar to Sweden. Then I added some other countries to show that Sweden is roughly average in genera.
Cloudef 6y ago
Not sure, Finland is experiencing massive layoffs.
- nabla9 6y ago
  I don't know. 6000 covid unemployed in Finland compared to 13,000 deaths in Sweden does not seem so bad.
argvargc 6y ago
What that list indicates, along with a huge amount of literature about the subject [0], is that arguments for lockdowns likely have zero validity. Certainly, with Sweden faring much better than other countries that employed far more restrictive measures suggests that the virus doesn't care about such measures. Economies, livelihoods, rights, and those waiting for treatments for other things were all harmed unnecessarily. At best this has all been a giant, failed experiment. At worst it's the predictable result of panic and listening to self-appointed "authorities" who happen to be able to reach large audiences instantly, instead of lesser-known actual experts without such privilege, and who therefore take longer to be heard. Doing what is ordinarily done in pandemics - isolating only those at risk until cures are found, would obviously have saved more lives and resulted in almost no disruption nor any trillions in wasted money. [0] - 32 studies: https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/ https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-co...
- arethuza 6y ago
  I don't know about other countries but here in the UK imposing a lockdown seems to result in an eventual reduction of numbers of lifting of lockdowns results in them growing again - even to the point where a seemingly inevitable "third wave" is being predicted for later this year even with the success of the vaccination program here. Indeed, the main criticism of the government(s) here is usually that lockdowns weren't introduced soon enough and lifted too early.
  - argvargc 6y ago
    Interesting, but given it contradicts volumes of research suggests that if based on real data (rather than the hand-waving it sounds like), it's probably anomaly.
  - HPsquared 6y ago
    Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Cases going down after a lockdown (which happens when cases go up) doesn't imply the lockdown actually caused the cases to go back down. It's a classic mistake in medicine - "patient got better after treatment, therefore the treatment is effective" and the reason we have double blind trials.
cjblomqvist 6y ago
Or it wouldn't have mattered - it can be a lot of different reasons (including randomness) that caused the situation in Sweden and I've yet heard anyone do any kind of proper scientific research and argument about it, so most likely we just don't know. "Lies, damn lies, statistics"...
bjourne 6y ago
A better metric is probably excess mortality for 2020. The covid deaths per capita metric will vary immensely depending on exactly how it is measured. Here are the numbers for Sweden and some other countries: > Preliminary data from EU statistics agency Eurostat compiled by Reuters showed Sweden had 7.7% more deaths in 2020 than its average for the preceding four years. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1% and 16.2% respectively. > Twenty-one of the 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden. However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-mortality-idUSKBN2BG1R9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe... Can someone fill in the numbers for the US and Canada?
- nadezhda18 6y ago
  Sure! [1] shows the Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020, very convenient to compare. In particular: Canada: 6% USA: 12.9% South Korea, interestingly: -2.9% [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countr... Also - [2] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210...
  - bjourne 6y ago
    Huh, that's interesting. How come your link claims the increase was 1.5% while mine claims it was 7.7%?
    - nadezhda18 6y ago
      Good question, I am not sure. The numbers from my link do match the official numbers from Canada (link [2]) though.

by nabla9 6y ago

SpicyLemonZest 6y ago

The numbers here go from 8 to 254. Couldn't you make most of the countries on this list look good or bad by just adjusting the comparison set?

nabla9 6y ago
Sweden has relevant peer group to compare against. Sweden had the ability and resources to get into line with other Nordic countries, but it didn't. The difference is caused by political choices. Sweden fucked up. How Sweden did against Kenya or India is not not as relevant. Kenya and India don't have the same capabilities as Sweden.
- cjblomqvist 6y ago
  What about Belgium? What's the big difference between Belgium compared to the Nordic countries? Because they've had it a lot worse than Sweden. TLDR; It's possible to cherry pick. And it doesn't lead us anywhere (neither for nor against your hypothesis).
  - nabla9 6y ago
    Belgium did worse. >TLDR; It's possible to cherry pick. I didn't cherry pick. I selected the best reference group. Other Nordic countries are very similar to Sweden. Then I added some other countries to show that Sweden is roughly average in genera.

Cloudef 6y ago

Not sure, Finland is experiencing massive layoffs.

nabla9 6y ago
I don't know. 6000 covid unemployed in Finland compared to 13,000 deaths in Sweden does not seem so bad.

argvargc 6y ago

What that list indicates, along with a huge amount of literature about the subject [0], is that arguments for lockdowns likely have zero validity. Certainly, with Sweden faring much better than other countries that employed far more restrictive measures suggests that the virus doesn't care about such measures. Economies, livelihoods, rights, and those waiting for treatments for other things were all harmed unnecessarily. At best this has all been a giant, failed experiment. At worst it's the predictable result of panic and listening to self-appointed "authorities" who happen to be able to reach large audiences instantly, instead of lesser-known actual experts without such privilege, and who therefore take longer to be heard. Doing what is ordinarily done in pandemics - isolating only those at risk until cures are found, would obviously have saved more lives and resulted in almost no disruption nor any trillions in wasted money. [0] - 32 studies: https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-coronavirus-the-evidence/ https://www.aier.org/article/lockdowns-do-not-control-the-co...

arethuza 6y ago
I don't know about other countries but here in the UK imposing a lockdown seems to result in an eventual reduction of numbers of lifting of lockdowns results in them growing again - even to the point where a seemingly inevitable "third wave" is being predicted for later this year even with the success of the vaccination program here. Indeed, the main criticism of the government(s) here is usually that lockdowns weren't introduced soon enough and lifted too early.
- argvargc 6y ago
  Interesting, but given it contradicts volumes of research suggests that if based on real data (rather than the hand-waving it sounds like), it's probably anomaly.
- HPsquared 6y ago
  Post hoc ergo propter hoc. Cases going down after a lockdown (which happens when cases go up) doesn't imply the lockdown actually caused the cases to go back down. It's a classic mistake in medicine - "patient got better after treatment, therefore the treatment is effective" and the reason we have double blind trials.

cjblomqvist 6y ago

Or it wouldn't have mattered - it can be a lot of different reasons (including randomness) that caused the situation in Sweden and I've yet heard anyone do any kind of proper scientific research and argument about it, so most likely we just don't know. "Lies, damn lies, statistics"...

bjourne 6y ago

A better metric is probably excess mortality for 2020. The covid deaths per capita metric will vary immensely depending on exactly how it is measured. Here are the numbers for Sweden and some other countries: > Preliminary data from EU statistics agency Eurostat compiled by Reuters showed Sweden had 7.7% more deaths in 2020 than its average for the preceding four years. Countries that opted for several periods of strict lockdowns, such as Spain and Belgium, had so-called excess mortality of 18.1% and 16.2% respectively. > Twenty-one of the 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden. However, Sweden did much worse than its Nordic neighbours, with Denmark registering just 1.5% excess mortality and Finland 1.0%. Norway had no excess mortality at all in 2020. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe-mortality-idUSKBN2BG1R9 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-europe... Can someone fill in the numbers for the US and Canada?

nadezhda18 6y ago
Sure! [1] shows the Excess Mortality across Countries in 2020, very convenient to compare. In particular: Canada: 6% USA: 12.9% South Korea, interestingly: -2.9% [1] https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countries-in-2020/ https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/excess-mortality-across-countr... Also - [2] https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210310c-eng.htm https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210310/dq210...
- bjourne 6y ago
  Huh, that's interesting. How come your link claims the increase was 1.5% while mine claims it was 7.7%?
  - nadezhda18 6y ago
    Good question, I am not sure. The numbers from my link do match the official numbers from Canada (link [2]) though.