7 ms·

Would someone tldr it?

chrisseaton 6y ago
Sweden were convinced their approach of not really doing anything would yield an infection mortality rate of 0.1%. They were extremely wrong. They then thought their approach would avoid a second wave. They were wrong about that as well. They're now pinning their hats on being 'not the worst off'. A lot of people are dead. Others are angry.
- gerikson 6y ago
  Total deaths pM Belgium: 1,999 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar country size, but BE has had full lockdown, curfew, police fining.
  - hollerith 6y ago
    What was your process for choosing Belgium from the countries that have had full lockdowns, etc?
    - gerikson 6y ago
      I think it's a representative comparison.
      - arethuza 6y ago
        Sweden has a much lower population density than Belgium - 25 vs 383 per sq. km of land area. Belgium seems pretty small and crowded when compared to Sweden.
        gerikson 6y ago
        Stockholm has a population density 5,200/sq km, while Brussels has 7,400/sq km (source: Wikipedia). Most deaths are in densely populated areas, because that's where people tend to live.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Actually, while most infections happen in densely populated areas, most deaths don't. Healthcare access out of densely populated areas involves delays, transportation, sometimes airlifts or is just simply sub-par. Also densely populated areas tend to have younger population which is overall less likely to die. All of which shifts a significant part of the death rate towards sparsely populated areas. Death rate by population density is basically a shapeless scatterplot [0]. Even superdense micronations (Monaco, Singapore, Liechtenstein, etc) don't seem to have significantly high rates, with the notable exception of San Marino, which is still "just" at the level of Czechia. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
        HPsquared 6y ago
        Raw population density (total population / total land area) is a meaningless statistic, as people are clustered together in cities and not evenly spaced around the countryside. The figure you want is population weighted density, which is the density where the "average citizen" lives.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Of course that's a naive analysis, but so was grandparent's. Actually that's why I mention Singapore, Monaco or Liechtenstein, all of their surface is inhabited, or their population concentrated around a single city, but their death rates aren't dissimilar from those of their surrounding countries.
  - barbazoo 6y ago
    That's quite some cherry picking you're doing there. ... Total deaths pM Norway: 123 Total deaths pM Finland: 148 Total deaths pM Germany: 915 ... Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
    - gerikson 6y ago
      Why not include Japan? 71.9 deaths pM.
      - Uberphallus 6y ago
        Because Japanese people wear masks without being told.
    - snakeboy 6y ago
      Both the EU average deaths pM and Sweden deaths pM are pretty similar, around 1300. I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar (even if personally I find this logic suspect for explaining Covid outcomes), but I don't see how, between Germany and Belgium, one is obviously better than the other for comparison. It appears you chose a country that fits your narrative, and them, theirs.
      - barbazoo 6y ago
        > I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. > You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar Exactly that. Germany I simply chose because that's where I'm from originally. The data couldn't be more clear that's why I thought it wouldn't be necessary to list many more countries with a stricter Covid19 policy and a considerably lower death rate.
        snakeboy 6y ago
        If we're just choosing our personal favorite countries, we can also discuss France, who is still in lockdown (albeit weakened) with ~1450 deaths pM. :) > The data couldn't be more clear I don't mean to be rude, so please take this as an honest, albeit blunt, response. No one who is honestly analyzing this situation is making such a strong statement. Be them epidemiologists, statisticians, or independent analysts. The only ones saying this are politicians whose job depend on proving that their strategy works. I would really encourage you to have a bit more humility at the complexity of this problem and the variables (and messy data) involved and the fact that we're still actively learning more every day about the effectiveness of different policy strategies.
  - scarmig 6y ago
    Culturally, it makes more sense to compare to Norway and Denmark. I'm pretty sure those numbers look really different.
  - naturalauction 6y ago
    Total deaths pM Norway: 123.41 Total deaths pM Denmark: 414.88 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar cultures, but Denmark and Norway implemented more strict lockdown measures. Two can play this game
  - mabbo 6y ago
    The problem with comparing Belgium is that, by their own admission, they may be inflating numbers where other countries are deflating numbers. Belgium considered anyone that died with something that might be COVID-19, that death is in their stats. Meanwhile, other countries are saying anyone who has not been positively tested as having died with COVID-19 in their system did not die from the pandemic. But tests are fallible, and many people die of the after effects of COVID-19, after the virus has ravaged them but been dealt with. The true measure is going to be the death rate compared to the previous ten years. And even that has to be considered by numerous conflating variables.
    - gerikson 6y ago
      Thanks, I did not know this.
    - mekkkkkk 6y ago
      AFAIK this is the same attribution strategy that sweden uses. It has likewise been cited over here (sweden) as contributing to the comparitevely high numbers.
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medstrom 6y ago
I enjoyed this paragraph: > Tegnell, who is sixty-four and tall, with round glasses, has often said that lockdowns are not supported by science and that the evidence for mask-wearing is “weak.” His stance is a startling departure from the scientific consensus, but he maintains that if other countries were led by experts rather than politicians, more nations would have policies like Sweden’s. The world has been left gawking. American liberals were shocked that the country of Greta Thunberg could seem so scientifically backward. Right-wing activists in Minnesota held up signs during anti-lockdown protests reading “Be Like Sweden.” Within the country, Tegnell has become an icon of Swedish exceptionalism, believed to be excessively reasonable, levelheaded, and rational.
- ketamine__ 6y ago
  Why did you enjoy it? It's a complete lie. We are in a pandemic and scientific consensus should require randomized trials. I think we can rewrite this to say: "experts disagreed with other experts on mitigation strategies."
  - medstrom 6y ago
    I agree the scientific consensus is debatable, but I enjoy the way the man turns the policy debate upside down. At the very least, he's helped to de-politickize the debate.
  - at-fates-hands 6y ago
    > We are in a pandemic and scientific consensus should require randomized trials. The entire pandemic has been politicized, science be damned when it doesn't conform to a political narrative.
    - dehrmann 6y ago
      What if I said the pandemic is more of a political issue than an epidemiological one? A year of restrictions (or not) for a .5%-1% IFR disease is a political decision.

Sweden were convinced their approach of not really doing anything would yield an infection mortality rate of 0.1%. They were extremely wrong. They then thought their approach would avoid a second wave. They were wrong about that as well. They're now pinning their hats on being 'not the worst off'. A lot of people are dead. Others are angry.

gerikson 6y ago
Total deaths pM Belgium: 1,999 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar country size, but BE has had full lockdown, curfew, police fining.
- hollerith 6y ago
  What was your process for choosing Belgium from the countries that have had full lockdowns, etc?
  - gerikson 6y ago
    I think it's a representative comparison.
    - arethuza 6y ago
      Sweden has a much lower population density than Belgium - 25 vs 383 per sq. km of land area. Belgium seems pretty small and crowded when compared to Sweden.
      - gerikson 6y ago
        Stockholm has a population density 5,200/sq km, while Brussels has 7,400/sq km (source: Wikipedia). Most deaths are in densely populated areas, because that's where people tend to live.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Actually, while most infections happen in densely populated areas, most deaths don't. Healthcare access out of densely populated areas involves delays, transportation, sometimes airlifts or is just simply sub-par. Also densely populated areas tend to have younger population which is overall less likely to die. All of which shifts a significant part of the death rate towards sparsely populated areas. Death rate by population density is basically a shapeless scatterplot [0]. Even superdense micronations (Monaco, Singapore, Liechtenstein, etc) don't seem to have significantly high rates, with the notable exception of San Marino, which is still "just" at the level of Czechia. [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density?yScale=linear https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-po...
        HPsquared 6y ago
        Raw population density (total population / total land area) is a meaningless statistic, as people are clustered together in cities and not evenly spaced around the countryside. The figure you want is population weighted density, which is the density where the "average citizen" lives.
        Uberphallus 6y ago
        Of course that's a naive analysis, but so was grandparent's. Actually that's why I mention Singapore, Monaco or Liechtenstein, all of their surface is inhabited, or their population concentrated around a single city, but their death rates aren't dissimilar from those of their surrounding countries.
- barbazoo 6y ago
  That's quite some cherry picking you're doing there. ... Total deaths pM Norway: 123 Total deaths pM Finland: 148 Total deaths pM Germany: 915 ... Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat...
  - gerikson 6y ago
    Why not include Japan? 71.9 deaths pM.
    - Uberphallus 6y ago
      Because Japanese people wear masks without being told.
  - snakeboy 6y ago
    Both the EU average deaths pM and Sweden deaths pM are pretty similar, around 1300. I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar (even if personally I find this logic suspect for explaining Covid outcomes), but I don't see how, between Germany and Belgium, one is obviously better than the other for comparison. It appears you chose a country that fits your narrative, and them, theirs.
    - barbazoo 6y ago
      > I'm not sure why you consider Belgium cherry-picking but not Norway, Germany, and Finland. > You could make an argument for Finland and Norway as more culturally similar Exactly that. Germany I simply chose because that's where I'm from originally. The data couldn't be more clear that's why I thought it wouldn't be necessary to list many more countries with a stricter Covid19 policy and a considerably lower death rate.
      - snakeboy 6y ago
        If we're just choosing our personal favorite countries, we can also discuss France, who is still in lockdown (albeit weakened) with ~1450 deaths pM. :) > The data couldn't be more clear I don't mean to be rude, so please take this as an honest, albeit blunt, response. No one who is honestly analyzing this situation is making such a strong statement. Be them epidemiologists, statisticians, or independent analysts. The only ones saying this are politicians whose job depend on proving that their strategy works. I would really encourage you to have a bit more humility at the complexity of this problem and the variables (and messy data) involved and the fact that we're still actively learning more every day about the effectiveness of different policy strategies.
- scarmig 6y ago
  Culturally, it makes more sense to compare to Norway and Denmark. I'm pretty sure those numbers look really different.
- naturalauction 6y ago
  Total deaths pM Norway: 123.41 Total deaths pM Denmark: 414.88 Total deaths pM Sweden: 1,399 Similar cultures, but Denmark and Norway implemented more strict lockdown measures. Two can play this game
- mabbo 6y ago
  The problem with comparing Belgium is that, by their own admission, they may be inflating numbers where other countries are deflating numbers. Belgium considered anyone that died with something that might be COVID-19, that death is in their stats. Meanwhile, other countries are saying anyone who has not been positively tested as having died with COVID-19 in their system did not die from the pandemic. But tests are fallible, and many people die of the after effects of COVID-19, after the virus has ravaged them but been dealt with. The true measure is going to be the death rate compared to the previous ten years. And even that has to be considered by numerous conflating variables.
  - gerikson 6y ago
    Thanks, I did not know this.
  - mekkkkkk 6y ago
    AFAIK this is the same attribution strategy that sweden uses. It has likewise been cited over here (sweden) as contributing to the comparitevely high numbers.
- deleted 6y ago
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- deleted 6y ago
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deleted 6y ago

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medstrom 6y ago

I enjoyed this paragraph: > Tegnell, who is sixty-four and tall, with round glasses, has often said that lockdowns are not supported by science and that the evidence for mask-wearing is “weak.” His stance is a startling departure from the scientific consensus, but he maintains that if other countries were led by experts rather than politicians, more nations would have policies like Sweden’s. The world has been left gawking. American liberals were shocked that the country of Greta Thunberg could seem so scientifically backward. Right-wing activists in Minnesota held up signs during anti-lockdown protests reading “Be Like Sweden.” Within the country, Tegnell has become an icon of Swedish exceptionalism, believed to be excessively reasonable, levelheaded, and rational.

ketamine__ 6y ago
Why did you enjoy it? It's a complete lie. We are in a pandemic and scientific consensus should require randomized trials. I think we can rewrite this to say: "experts disagreed with other experts on mitigation strategies."
- medstrom 6y ago
  I agree the scientific consensus is debatable, but I enjoy the way the man turns the policy debate upside down. At the very least, he's helped to de-politickize the debate.
- at-fates-hands 6y ago
  > We are in a pandemic and scientific consensus should require randomized trials. The entire pandemic has been politicized, science be damned when it doesn't conform to a political narrative.
  - dehrmann 6y ago
    What if I said the pandemic is more of a political issue than an epidemiological one? A year of restrictions (or not) for a .5%-1% IFR disease is a political decision.