3 ms·

SARS-2 was always destined to become yet another endemic seasonal respiratory virus, just to be clear. Also, it basically is a cold virus already. For the majo

SARS-2 was always destined to become yet another endemic seasonal respiratory virus, just to be clear. Also, it basically is a cold virus already. For the majority of the population it’s a mild respiratory virus. For the very elderly it is quite deadly. I wish more people appreciated this fact. Interestingly OC43, one of the already-extant human CoVs, seems pretty comparable in mortality for the elderly last time I checked.

NicoJuicy 5y ago
3 months ago, a friend of mine got it and he couldn't even walk the stairs. He's 34 and does a lot of sports. So, i wouldn't say that it's a cold virus already... Not deadly for younger people, doesn't mean it has no consequences.
- tunnuz 5y ago
  As anecdotal as it can be, I also know people in their mid-thirties workout complicating pathologies and in good shape that ended up being treated in ICUs and on ventilation (one with a collapsed lung, pneumonia and a bacterial infection).
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    Well, i did mention it because it's not the only one I know. A friend of mine is a nurse and she also mentioned lots of young and fit collegues getting it pretty bad. But correct, no research. But mostly people i know they got infected. Sure, some have nothing or only lose smell and taste.
    - o-__-o 5y ago
      As someone who suffered long haul, I don’t know anyone in my social circle who came down with long symptoms besides me. So maybe it’s not as common as the medical journals describe?
      - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
        Basically any viral infection bears the risk of extended symptoms of fatigue/malaise - see the whole ME/CFS literature (note: there's considerable controversy as to whether it's "real" or not - I don't take a side in that fight). Almost all "research" I've seen of so-called "long COVID" has been self-reported surveys from self-select internet populations; hopefully it's obvious why such "research" will end up dramatically overstating the prevalence. (Edit: Re-reading this the tone doesn't come across quite how I want it so to be clear I'm criticizing the research itself not denying that anyone experiences these symptoms) Lastly, I do very much worry that the widespread culture of fear and stress - which has been actively encouraged rather than calmed down by health "experts" around the globe - is contributing to a type of psychogenic / psychosomatic illness. To be explicit, psychosomatic illness is a real illness, but it does mean that the underlying mechanism is not of physiological origin but rather psychoemotional stress/belief systems that ultimately culminate in physical symptoms. Very sorry to hear that you're actively suffering from long COVID. I hope things get better for you. I struggle with a sort of chronic fatigue myself (not anywhere as severe as the ME/CFS type horror stories I hear about, but still) so I know how shitty it can be. I've always got a bunch of ideas bouncing around my head of new research directions, articles I want to write, etc, and it many times feels out of my control whether I'm going to have the energy to pursue those goals or not.
        NicoJuicy 5y ago
        WHO had research about long haulers, including the biggest hospitals in italy. Not that "self reported", i suppose...
      - NicoJuicy 5y ago
        My social circle seems to be similar to what the research says about covid long haul. Which claims that 1/3rd who got it has covid-19 long term problems ( WHO ), my circle doesn't seem to be needing an differentiator for age. Since I don't know any elderly who got it. So my perception is more pessimistic about the research, but I could have a more pessimistic circle, while you had a more optimistic one. ( Except for you ofc, that sucks. I wish you a speedy recovery)
    - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
      One of the most unfortunate aspects of containment-type policies (or the type of mitigation-but-with-all-the-downsides-of-containment like in my state of California), is that they put people into a physiological (and psychological) state where they are more vulnerable to disease: - Vitamin D is a critical pro-hormone for immunoregulatory function in general and respiratory pathology specifically. In many ways severe COVID-19 is a disorder of immunoregulation. Vitamin D deficiency is already very widespread, and telling people to stay inside / not go out, and when going out to cover some exposed skin with a mask, is very obviously going to negatively impact Vitamin D as well as nitric oxide production/release respectively. Both are really important for respiratory pathology although Vitamin D is by far more important - Decreased sleep, increased stress/fear, decreased exercise: all of these put the body into a pro-inflammatory state as well as a state in which immunoregulatory processes start to break down. Some stress/fear/sleep is unavoidable during a pandemic or epidemic but the vast majority of it is disproportionate to the reality of the situation and is a direct result of fear-based messaging from public health "experts", politicians, and the media. (Remember when beaches were closed down? In many places gyms are still closed, etc) - Improper wearing of masks (read: how literally every community member wears a mask) very plausibly increases the risk of bacterial pneumonia due to having a warm, moist cloth bacterial reservoir attached to both of one's breathing holes for long periods of time. This was a concern which was identified after the "Spanish" Flu of 1918 where the scientific consensus after the fact was that such usage of masking was both completely unfounded and likely contributed to bacterial pneumonia and other worsened outcomes. So many of the interventions (universal masking) we're advised or mandated to undertake increase a lot of these risks, which is doubly ironic when the wealth of research literature around masking for community transmission of respiratory viruses is at best inconclusive.
  - xtracto 5y ago
    The "mild respiratory flu" description is utter bullshit. There was an analysis a couple of days ago about a very high percentage of people having to return to ICU 3 months after going in for covid. And another high percentage dying after the 3 months. That's not anecdotal, that's statistics.
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  Okay, I had PCR and serology confirmed SARS-2 that was completely asymptomatic. I'm in my late 20's. Numbers vary but most studies have the rate of asymptomaticity quite high. I've seen anything from 10% to 60%. And then you have the people that are "paucisymptomatic" (mild symptoms). And then you have a more traditional flu-type response, and then you have the subset of people who have a severe response that seems comparable to a SARS-1 infection (read: quite bad). I didn't say that SARS-2 was never dangerous for anyone. So-called "cold" viruses can cause serious illness too. I'm not downplaying SARS-2, rather everyone else is downplaying what a normal cold virus can be capable of. Sorry to hear about your friend's illness BTW.
Jeema101 5y ago
>For the majority of the population it’s a mild respiratory virus I know someone in her 40s who got it and is not overweight. She said it was terrible and that she's definitely getting the vaccine because she never wants to get it again. What exactly would you consider a non-mild respiratory virus?
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  > What exactly would you consider a non-mild respiratory virus? SARS-1 is an example of a non-mild respiratory virus. We don't know quite as much about it since it never became a massive global phenomenon the way SARS-2 did, but the research I've read basically indicates that a "run-of-the-mill" SARS-1 infection is much like a severe COVID-19 case. People seem to really be taking issue with my statement, and I think it comes down to them conflating "mild respiratory virus for the majority of the population" with "mild respiratory virus for everyone". Here's one simple way to put it: if "asymptomatic COVID-19" (which is an oxymoron but I'll spare you that rant) is as common as they say it is, that's an indication that it is a mild respiratory virus in many people.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
nradov 5y ago
There is strong circumstantial evidence that OC43 caused the 1889 pandemic, which killed about 0.06% of the world population. It's still endemic today, but most of us get infected as youths which provides some immunity later in life. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ So far COVID-19 has killed about 0.04% of the world population.
- __blockcipher__ 5y ago
  Thanks for the link. (As an aside, the usage of the phrase "COVID-19 virus" in the paper really triggers me :P) Not sure if you were just sharing information or if there was an implication that it's at odds with what I said, but just to be explicit I consider that to confirm what I said above. > It's still endemic today, but most of us get infected as youths which provides some immunity later in life. Right! That's why it's really a great analogy for SARS-2. I've been trying to get people to understand for awhile now that unlike say a really bad flu pandemic [flu has a bi-modal death distribution], SARS-2 kills the very elderly and the very sickly, but doesn't touch the very young. That means that once it's more-or-less fully spread through the population (as it has been doing the last 1.5 years or so), we're basically done with COVID-19 mortality forever. Why? Because of exactly that reason: children will get exposed to SARS-2 young the same way they get exposed to the other circulating non-SARS hCoVs. And like any infection, once infected and recovered immunological memory persists for decades upon decades. Memory B/T cells hang around, ready and waiting to respond to the characteristic antigen when presented with them in the future.

NicoJuicy 5y ago

3 months ago, a friend of mine got it and he couldn't even walk the stairs. He's 34 and does a lot of sports. So, i wouldn't say that it's a cold virus already... Not deadly for younger people, doesn't mean it has no consequences.

tunnuz 5y ago
As anecdotal as it can be, I also know people in their mid-thirties workout complicating pathologies and in good shape that ended up being treated in ICUs and on ventilation (one with a collapsed lung, pneumonia and a bacterial infection).
- NicoJuicy 5y ago
  Well, i did mention it because it's not the only one I know. A friend of mine is a nurse and she also mentioned lots of young and fit collegues getting it pretty bad. But correct, no research. But mostly people i know they got infected. Sure, some have nothing or only lose smell and taste.
  - o-__-o 5y ago
    As someone who suffered long haul, I don’t know anyone in my social circle who came down with long symptoms besides me. So maybe it’s not as common as the medical journals describe?
    - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
      Basically any viral infection bears the risk of extended symptoms of fatigue/malaise - see the whole ME/CFS literature (note: there's considerable controversy as to whether it's "real" or not - I don't take a side in that fight). Almost all "research" I've seen of so-called "long COVID" has been self-reported surveys from self-select internet populations; hopefully it's obvious why such "research" will end up dramatically overstating the prevalence. (Edit: Re-reading this the tone doesn't come across quite how I want it so to be clear I'm criticizing the research itself not denying that anyone experiences these symptoms) Lastly, I do very much worry that the widespread culture of fear and stress - which has been actively encouraged rather than calmed down by health "experts" around the globe - is contributing to a type of psychogenic / psychosomatic illness. To be explicit, psychosomatic illness is a real illness, but it does mean that the underlying mechanism is not of physiological origin but rather psychoemotional stress/belief systems that ultimately culminate in physical symptoms. Very sorry to hear that you're actively suffering from long COVID. I hope things get better for you. I struggle with a sort of chronic fatigue myself (not anywhere as severe as the ME/CFS type horror stories I hear about, but still) so I know how shitty it can be. I've always got a bunch of ideas bouncing around my head of new research directions, articles I want to write, etc, and it many times feels out of my control whether I'm going to have the energy to pursue those goals or not.
      - NicoJuicy 5y ago
        WHO had research about long haulers, including the biggest hospitals in italy. Not that "self reported", i suppose...
    - NicoJuicy 5y ago
      My social circle seems to be similar to what the research says about covid long haul. Which claims that 1/3rd who got it has covid-19 long term problems ( WHO ), my circle doesn't seem to be needing an differentiator for age. Since I don't know any elderly who got it. So my perception is more pessimistic about the research, but I could have a more pessimistic circle, while you had a more optimistic one. ( Except for you ofc, that sucks. I wish you a speedy recovery)
  - __blockcipher__ 5y ago
    One of the most unfortunate aspects of containment-type policies (or the type of mitigation-but-with-all-the-downsides-of-containment like in my state of California), is that they put people into a physiological (and psychological) state where they are more vulnerable to disease: - Vitamin D is a critical pro-hormone for immunoregulatory function in general and respiratory pathology specifically. In many ways severe COVID-19 is a disorder of immunoregulation. Vitamin D deficiency is already very widespread, and telling people to stay inside / not go out, and when going out to cover some exposed skin with a mask, is very obviously going to negatively impact Vitamin D as well as nitric oxide production/release respectively. Both are really important for respiratory pathology although Vitamin D is by far more important - Decreased sleep, increased stress/fear, decreased exercise: all of these put the body into a pro-inflammatory state as well as a state in which immunoregulatory processes start to break down. Some stress/fear/sleep is unavoidable during a pandemic or epidemic but the vast majority of it is disproportionate to the reality of the situation and is a direct result of fear-based messaging from public health "experts", politicians, and the media. (Remember when beaches were closed down? In many places gyms are still closed, etc) - Improper wearing of masks (read: how literally every community member wears a mask) very plausibly increases the risk of bacterial pneumonia due to having a warm, moist cloth bacterial reservoir attached to both of one's breathing holes for long periods of time. This was a concern which was identified after the "Spanish" Flu of 1918 where the scientific consensus after the fact was that such usage of masking was both completely unfounded and likely contributed to bacterial pneumonia and other worsened outcomes. So many of the interventions (universal masking) we're advised or mandated to undertake increase a lot of these risks, which is doubly ironic when the wealth of research literature around masking for community transmission of respiratory viruses is at best inconclusive.
- xtracto 5y ago
  The "mild respiratory flu" description is utter bullshit. There was an analysis a couple of days ago about a very high percentage of people having to return to ICU 3 months after going in for covid. And another high percentage dying after the 3 months. That's not anecdotal, that's statistics.
__blockcipher__ 5y ago
Okay, I had PCR and serology confirmed SARS-2 that was completely asymptomatic. I'm in my late 20's. Numbers vary but most studies have the rate of asymptomaticity quite high. I've seen anything from 10% to 60%. And then you have the people that are "paucisymptomatic" (mild symptoms). And then you have a more traditional flu-type response, and then you have the subset of people who have a severe response that seems comparable to a SARS-1 infection (read: quite bad). I didn't say that SARS-2 was never dangerous for anyone. So-called "cold" viruses can cause serious illness too. I'm not downplaying SARS-2, rather everyone else is downplaying what a normal cold virus can be capable of. Sorry to hear about your friend's illness BTW.

Jeema101 5y ago

>For the majority of the population it’s a mild respiratory virus I know someone in her 40s who got it and is not overweight. She said it was terrible and that she's definitely getting the vaccine because she never wants to get it again. What exactly would you consider a non-mild respiratory virus?

__blockcipher__ 5y ago
> What exactly would you consider a non-mild respiratory virus? SARS-1 is an example of a non-mild respiratory virus. We don't know quite as much about it since it never became a massive global phenomenon the way SARS-2 did, but the research I've read basically indicates that a "run-of-the-mill" SARS-1 infection is much like a severe COVID-19 case. People seem to really be taking issue with my statement, and I think it comes down to them conflating "mild respiratory virus for the majority of the population" with "mild respiratory virus for everyone". Here's one simple way to put it: if "asymptomatic COVID-19" (which is an oxymoron but I'll spare you that rant) is as common as they say it is, that's an indication that it is a mild respiratory virus in many people.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

nradov 5y ago

There is strong circumstantial evidence that OC43 caused the 1889 pandemic, which killed about 0.06% of the world population. It's still endemic today, but most of us get infected as youths which provides some immunity later in life. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7252012/ So far COVID-19 has killed about 0.04% of the world population.

__blockcipher__ 5y ago
Thanks for the link. (As an aside, the usage of the phrase "COVID-19 virus" in the paper really triggers me :P) Not sure if you were just sharing information or if there was an implication that it's at odds with what I said, but just to be explicit I consider that to confirm what I said above. > It's still endemic today, but most of us get infected as youths which provides some immunity later in life. Right! That's why it's really a great analogy for SARS-2. I've been trying to get people to understand for awhile now that unlike say a really bad flu pandemic [flu has a bi-modal death distribution], SARS-2 kills the very elderly and the very sickly, but doesn't touch the very young. That means that once it's more-or-less fully spread through the population (as it has been doing the last 1.5 years or so), we're basically done with COVID-19 mortality forever. Why? Because of exactly that reason: children will get exposed to SARS-2 young the same way they get exposed to the other circulating non-SARS hCoVs. And like any infection, once infected and recovered immunological memory persists for decades upon decades. Memory B/T cells hang around, ready and waiting to respond to the characteristic antigen when presented with them in the future.