5 ms·

We are already seeing the beginning of a new wave in Michigan. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in th

We are already seeing the beginning of a new wave in Michigan. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities. > “I do think this could be the beginning of a third surge,” Dr. Khaldun said, after an initial rush of cases in Michigan last March and April, followed by a surge in October and November. “I am concerned. But I also think there are things that we can do today that will start to turn that curve down.” https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea...

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
seizethecheese 6y ago
Sure, a new wave of cases, but will it translate to deaths? My understanding is that most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%.
- hammock 6y ago
  >most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
- tyingq 6y ago
  "we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
  - flatline 6y ago
    New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
    - Baeocystin 6y ago
      The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
      - kmonsen 6y ago
        Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
        roywiggins 6y ago
        I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
        mapme 6y ago
        Yes, this was seen in the Israel Pfizer data that death protection was around 93%. There are a number of public data points from Israel with sample sizes that dwarf anything done in trials. Shame it’s not mentioned more as it’s incredibly robust (positive) evidence
  - azernik 6y ago
    Point being, we've focused vaccination on the most susceptible groups. Vaccinating even 15% of the total population means we've probably vaccinated ~90% of people aged 75+ (with that number being limited by health conditions that contraindicate vaccination).
  - Forbo 6y ago
    Utah is saying they're at 22% fully vaccinated according to their site: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine
    - tyingq 6y ago
      Interesting. I got my number from google (google for coronavirus immunization stats), which says it gets its data from "ourworldindata"[1]. [1] https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/us_state_vaccinations.csv https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/dat... Google screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY
nradov 6y ago
We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude that that many younger people contracted the virus through participating in sports activities, as opposed to other activities. That seems like unscientific and irresponsible speculation.
- Godel_unicode 6y ago
  Do you know that to be true, or is this speculation on your part? Just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it doesn't exist (unless you're saying that you're an epidemiologist in Michigan?)
  - krona 6y ago
    The null hypothesis is that we don't know why/how they contracted the virus. Parent doesn't have to know it's true, or be an expert in anything.
    - roenxi 6y ago
      Humans have been dealing with respiratory diseases since well before the dawn of recorded history. An article on nytimes.com proves nothing, but the null hypothesis (for a trained and educated medical professional) is not going to be "I dunno". The null hypothesis is "this will behave like [most similar virus I know about] and humans action will be causing spread in a manner following the epidemiological studies I have read". COVID shouldn't be so much of a mystery any more, it has been 12 months of the most focused study the world medical profession has ever done. The only thing holding our knowledge back of the short term behaviour of COVID is ourselves at this point. We've had time to watch the disease play out multiple times.
    - Godel_unicode 6y ago
      Their exact statement was: "We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude" Your argument, then, is that one can make a confident affirmative argument about the null hypothesis absent any evidence and be correct in so doing...?
chmod600 6y ago
I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so many vulnerable people already vaccinated, and so much organic immunity already, do you really think it will be a six-week-long wave? Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity. In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15. Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.
- mikeyouse 6y ago
  My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.
  - sharken 6y ago
    Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
    - mikeyouse 6y ago
      Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

seizethecheese 6y ago

Sure, a new wave of cases, but will it translate to deaths? My understanding is that most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%.

hammock 6y ago
>most deaths come from 20% of population and we have vaccinated over 30%. In the US, most (59%) deaths come from people aged 75+ according to CDC. People aged 75+ make up roughly 12% of the population.
tyingq 6y ago
"we have vaccinated over 30%" Some places are at much lower percentages. "Fully vaccinated" varies from ~12% in Utah to ~24% in New Mexico. 17% overall for the US.
- flatline 6y ago
  New Mexico is currently at 48.4% of the eligible population with at least one dose, which recent research indicates is at least 80% effective. Research also indicates that the non-eligible population - children - are not as likely to spread or contract the disease. By mid-May I expect many more states to lift mask mandates, for venues to open at near 100% capacity, etc. People will still be dying from COVID, 80-90% effective still leaves a lot of people vulnerable. But that has not stopped us so far!
  - Baeocystin 6y ago
    The 80-90% numbers are for symptomatic Covid. The protection against hospitalization/death seems to be close to 100%, which is fantastic news.
    - kmonsen 6y ago
      Yeah, people are reading the effective number wrong. It is very close to 100% in protecting against hospitalization/death, which is what we really care about. If we could vaccinate 100% (perhaps at some time interval), this would be over.
      - roywiggins 6y ago
        I think it's likely that the real-world protection against death is actually lower than 100%- immune compromised people exist, and are liable to be comparatively poorly protected. And they're not part of the big efficacy trials. Ideally you can protect them by suppressing the virus by herd immunity, which I think is actually a viable prospect with these vaccines.
        mapme 6y ago
        Yes, this was seen in the Israel Pfizer data that death protection was around 93%. There are a number of public data points from Israel with sample sizes that dwarf anything done in trials. Shame it’s not mentioned more as it’s incredibly robust (positive) evidence
- azernik 6y ago
  Point being, we've focused vaccination on the most susceptible groups. Vaccinating even 15% of the total population means we've probably vaccinated ~90% of people aged 75+ (with that number being limited by health conditions that contraindicate vaccination).
- Forbo 6y ago
  Utah is saying they're at 22% fully vaccinated according to their site: https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine https://coronavirus.utah.gov/vaccine
  - tyingq 6y ago
    Interesting. I got my number from google (google for coronavirus immunization stats), which says it gets its data from "ourworldindata"[1]. [1] https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/data/vaccinations/us_state_vaccinations.csv https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/blob/master/public/dat... Google screenshot: https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY https://imgur.com/a/OMu5EcY

nradov 6y ago

We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude that that many younger people contracted the virus through participating in sports activities, as opposed to other activities. That seems like unscientific and irresponsible speculation.

Godel_unicode 6y ago
Do you know that to be true, or is this speculation on your part? Just because you don't have the data doesn't mean it doesn't exist (unless you're saying that you're an epidemiologist in Michigan?)
- krona 6y ago
  The null hypothesis is that we don't know why/how they contracted the virus. Parent doesn't have to know it's true, or be an expert in anything.
  - roenxi 6y ago
    Humans have been dealing with respiratory diseases since well before the dawn of recorded history. An article on nytimes.com proves nothing, but the null hypothesis (for a trained and educated medical professional) is not going to be "I dunno". The null hypothesis is "this will behave like [most similar virus I know about] and humans action will be causing spread in a manner following the epidemiological studies I have read". COVID shouldn't be so much of a mystery any more, it has been 12 months of the most focused study the world medical profession has ever done. The only thing holding our knowledge back of the short term behaviour of COVID is ourselves at this point. We've had time to watch the disease play out multiple times.
  - Godel_unicode 6y ago
    Their exact statement was: "We don't really have enough contact tracing data to reliably conclude" Your argument, then, is that one can make a confident affirmative argument about the null hypothesis absent any evidence and be correct in so doing...?

chmod600 6y ago

I don't see how that makes May 15 and beyond look any worse. A wave now means more organic immunity as well as more tranmission in the short term. But with so many vulnerable people already vaccinated, and so much organic immunity already, do you really think it will be a six-week-long wave? Probably not. And in 6 weeks, that just means millions more will be vaccinated and younger people will have even more organic immunity. In other words, there may be another surge, but it will probably be the last one, and probably over by May 15. Again, non expert, don't cough on people, etc.

mikeyouse 6y ago
My friend's mom was just admitted to a hospital on the East side of Michigan with really, really bad Covid. Opening day for baseball is today, cases are surging like crazy and everyone is just pretending like it's over. I hope that things improve in 6 weeks, but I'm really pessimistic at the moment.
- sharken 6y ago
  Michigan is at 30% vaccinated with at least one dose according to https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracker/michigan/26/ https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/covid-19-vaccine-tracke... So things are better than in most places and will continually get better.
  - mikeyouse 6y ago
    Yeah, it will eventually get better, but I have family who are physicians who are swamped again and friends with relatives in ERs and ICUs.. Hard to be too optimistic at the moment. NYTimes' latest concurs; https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbreak.html https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/01/us/michigan-covid-outbrea... > Michigan has more recent cases per capita than any other state, and has seen them soar in recent weeks, to more than 5,600 cases a day from about 1,000 on Feb. 21. The nation’s top five metro areas in recent cases per capita are all in Michigan: Jackson, Detroit, Flint, Lansing and Monroe. ... > Health officials partly attributed the rapid rise in cases to the B.1.1.7 variant that was originally identified in Britain and is widespread in Michigan. But they have also observed a broader return to prepandemic life seen in a relaxing of mask wearing, social distancing and other strategies meant to slow the spread of the virus — many weeks before a substantial portion of the population is vaccinated. On Thursday, Michigan officials announced that they had identified their first case of the P.1 variant, which has spread widely in Brazil and has now been found in more than 20 U.S. states. ... > Dr. Joneigh S. Khaldun, the state’s chief medical executive, said on Tuesday that 50 percent of state residents over 65 were fully vaccinated, a sign of progress that the most vulnerable population is closer to protection from Covid-19. > But she said the most significant increase in hospitalizations in the state is in people in their 50s, a group still at risk of becoming severely ill or dying from Covid-19. Younger people have driven the rapid increase in cases recently, she said, including high school students who participate in sports and have contracted the virus through those activities.