3 ms·

I'm not sure I really buy that video - don't control groups account for differences in the general population at the time it was done? This Pfizer data, plus t

I'm not sure I really buy that video - don't control groups account for differences in the general population at the time it was done? This Pfizer data, plus the results in Israel suggest that the mRNA vaccines really are just objectively better. They all prevent death and hospitalizations though so get the one you can get, but it seems likely the mRNA shots are better. The main thing I'm wondering is if the people that got covid post J&J had really mild disease (like a tiny cold or something) or "mild" disease like absolutely miserable but just didn't have to go to ICU. Is that information known? Basically the video confuses some of what the control group actually does and then says "well they all prevent death anyway" - no shit. The question is if one is better than the other and the answer seems like yes. The main counter would be the presence of variants, but the Israeli population faced variants and the mRNA efficacy rate held. This new Pfizer data suggests mRNA is just better.

timr 6y ago
> The main thing I'm wondering is if the people that got covid post J&J had really mild disease (like a tiny cold or something) or "mild" disease like absolutely miserable but just didn't have to go to ICU. Is that information known? Of course. It's right there in the FDA report, starting on page 51: https://www.fda.gov/media/146219/download https://www.fda.gov/media/146219/download 7.1.1.5.3 Case Definition for Mild COVID-19 • A SARS-CoV-2 positive RT-PCR or molecular test result from any available respiratory tract sample (eg, nasal swab sample, sputum sample, throat swab sample, saliva sample) or other sample; AND at any time during the course of observation: • One of the following symptoms: fever (≥38.0°C or ≥100.4°F), sore throat, malaise (loss of appetite, generally unwell, fatigue, physical weakness), headache, muscle pain (myalgia), gastrointestinal symptoms, cough, chest congestion, runny nose, wheezing, skin rash, eye irritation or discharge, chills, new or changing olfactory or taste disorders, red or bruised looking feet or toes, or shaking chills or rigors. You will find equivalently precise definitions of moderate and severe disease, as well. And if you care to look, you can find the same thing for all of the other FDA-approved vaccines. They're similar, but not identical. In general, "mild disease" is what most reasonable people would consider to be mild disease, but there are minor differences in terms of which specific symptoms/thresholds are used. For this vaccine specifically, you can see that having two or more of the above symptoms will bump you into the "moderate disease" category. So they're pretty strict. > The question is if one is better than the other and the answer seems like yes. Given that you clearly haven't read the data, I don't know how you can possibly make such a speculation. I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but this entire affair has been defined by people who are way too willing to speculate after reading a few news articles.
- fossuser 6y ago
  Thanks - that makes me feel better about how they define mild, and thanks for the direct reference. Earlier in the pandemic mild was being used to mean only not hospitalized. > “I don't know how you can possibly make such a speculation.” I don’t mean to come across as overconfident, is my understanding of efficacy wrong? Or the purpose of control groups? I’m happy to be wrong or corrected. The speculation comes from the efficacy numbers and the results in Israel - is there a reason to dismiss those? Edit: Reading the Pfizer results from here (https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download) it seems like fewer moderate/severe cases of covid in the vaccinated population when compared to J&J (taking into account both of their placebo groups)? I’m not sure if I’m reading these correctly, but the docs don’t seem to contradict my impression that the mRNA vaccines are better.

timr 6y ago

> The main thing I'm wondering is if the people that got covid post J&J had really mild disease (like a tiny cold or something) or "mild" disease like absolutely miserable but just didn't have to go to ICU. Is that information known? Of course. It's right there in the FDA report, starting on page 51: https://www.fda.gov/media/146219/download https://www.fda.gov/media/146219/download 7.1.1.5.3 Case Definition for Mild COVID-19 • A SARS-CoV-2 positive RT-PCR or molecular test result from any available respiratory tract sample (eg, nasal swab sample, sputum sample, throat swab sample, saliva sample) or other sample; AND at any time during the course of observation: • One of the following symptoms: fever (≥38.0°C or ≥100.4°F), sore throat, malaise (loss of appetite, generally unwell, fatigue, physical weakness), headache, muscle pain (myalgia), gastrointestinal symptoms, cough, chest congestion, runny nose, wheezing, skin rash, eye irritation or discharge, chills, new or changing olfactory or taste disorders, red or bruised looking feet or toes, or shaking chills or rigors. You will find equivalently precise definitions of moderate and severe disease, as well. And if you care to look, you can find the same thing for all of the other FDA-approved vaccines. They're similar, but not identical. In general, "mild disease" is what most reasonable people would consider to be mild disease, but there are minor differences in terms of which specific symptoms/thresholds are used. For this vaccine specifically, you can see that having two or more of the above symptoms will bump you into the "moderate disease" category. So they're pretty strict. > The question is if one is better than the other and the answer seems like yes. Given that you clearly haven't read the data, I don't know how you can possibly make such a speculation. I don't mean to pick on you specifically, but this entire affair has been defined by people who are way too willing to speculate after reading a few news articles.

fossuser 6y ago
Thanks - that makes me feel better about how they define mild, and thanks for the direct reference. Earlier in the pandemic mild was being used to mean only not hospitalized. > “I don't know how you can possibly make such a speculation.” I don’t mean to come across as overconfident, is my understanding of efficacy wrong? Or the purpose of control groups? I’m happy to be wrong or corrected. The speculation comes from the efficacy numbers and the results in Israel - is there a reason to dismiss those? Edit: Reading the Pfizer results from here (https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download) it seems like fewer moderate/severe cases of covid in the vaccinated population when compared to J&J (taking into account both of their placebo groups)? I’m not sure if I’m reading these correctly, but the docs don’t seem to contradict my impression that the mRNA vaccines are better.