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Welcome to the Decade of Concern

76 points by jseliger 6y ago

jseliger 6y ago
Meta comment: Scholar's Stage is the most interesting blog I've encountered in years and its RSS feed is worth subscribing to. One hopes China doesn't invade Taiwan, as one hopes a pandemic doesn't happen; if China does, a lot of the general audience, accessible material about what is likely to occur will have been published at Scholar's Stage.
- incomplete 6y ago
  > Meta comment: Scholar's Stage is the most interesting blog I've encountered in years and its RSS feed is worth subscribing to. thanks for the rec... after poking around for 30m, i have to agree that it's worth subbing to. :)
- dirtyid 6y ago
  Greer writes well on variety of topics and well worth sub/reading. But I would not rely on him for current developments for US/TW/CN topics. He was one of the last holdouts along with Ian Easton of TW can triumph alone crowd, changing his position only recently, years after general consensus from credible thinktanks suggested otherwise. I think he lives in TW and has blinders on - having held his positions so far past expiration date. His writing on the subject since, rather his recent regurgitation of US thinktanks and opinion pieces are more in line with reality. It's nice to see him sober up, but never know when his opinions will drift back into wish fulfilment.
  - remarkEon 6y ago
    So you’re saying that, after living in Taiwan and “sobering up” on his defense views, he changed his mind and reconsidered his position? To me this is evidence to take what he says more seriously.
    - dirtyid 6y ago
      With respect to TW, he changed when his position became far past untenable. It's like someone flipping from being climate denialist in 2020 instead of 2010. Being proximate to TW should make their poor military preparedness more, not less apparent for those that follow the subject matter. The response shouldn't be, what a serious mind, but what took so long? Overall he's well worth reading, keeps up to date with literature, does good summaries. But his analysis on TW has been more outlier than consensus. And up until recently, stubbornly so.
cmalloc 6y ago
Having no prior knowledge of national security planning and outlook, this was a great read. Using real time strategy games a reference point for the uninitiated was a nice touch.
snurfer 6y ago
Nuclear weapons are Taiwan's only defence against their asymmetry with China. Unfortunately, that ship sailed in the 1980s.
phtrivier 6y ago
Is taiwan the Sudètes of someone ? What happens if taiwan just gets invaded, like crimea was, and no one balks ?
- ohazi 6y ago
  There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event of a mainland invasion in order to deny China access to TSMC capabilities. The rumor doesn't actually need to be true in order to act as a deterrent -- it just needs to be leaked to Chinese officials and considered credible. It also assumes that access to TSMC is a strong motivation for an invasion, which may or may not be true. In any case, the answer to your question depends on whether this is true, and whether the explosives are actually used. If the fabs are destroyed, it'll set the world back by at least a decade. So if you thought the chip shortage was bad today... On the other hand, if it's not true (or if it is, but the fabs aren't destroyed for whatever reason), and operations continue despite an invasion, I can definitely imagine a scenario where the rest of the world just sort of shrugs and goes with it. Kind of a horrifying thought, but what are the alternatives? Attack China? They have nukes. Everyone will condemn China, sure. Then China will get upset and claim that we're all "hurting the feelings of the Chinese people" [1], and that'll be the end of it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Chinese_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Ch...
  - dageshi 6y ago
    The chinese leadership/official position is that Taiwan is part of China. They don't want to invade and retake it because they want TSMC's chips, they want to retake it because they think it's a rebellious province that needs to be brought to heel.
    - ohazi 6y ago
      Right, which may mean that this threat is meaningless, but the rumors are still there, and the outcome is probably what the rest of the world actually cares about when considering the situation.
maxrev17 6y ago
Hmm, wish countries would poll their citizens with regards to wanting a war... I wonder how many would happen?
- shigawire 6y ago
  Maybe more. Depends on the country.
- warkdarrior 6y ago
  As many or even more wars, since public opinions are easily swayed through appropriate news/meme campaigns.
- torstenvl 6y ago
  If war were subject to referendum, only autocracies would wage war. Such a world is not worth living in.
- retrac 6y ago
  You're downvoted, but it has been postulated that no democracy has ever waged war against another democracy, and that this is a consequence of democratic governance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory As far as I can tell, the observation is historically true. The few possible exceptions are pre-modern, very minor, or are debatable whether the societies involved were in fact democratic -- the first war in the Balkans, 19th century border skirmishes in South America, the Western Allies against Finland in WW II, and Iceland's conflict with the UK over fishing, are some of the stronger counter-examples. The effect seems real enough, but I'm not sure if it actually means anything deeper, given the cultural similarity and degree of trade among most democracies.
  - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
    Iceland vs. the UK over fishing - how many shots were fired in that? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that it might have been a skirmish, but it wasn't a war...
paulz_ 6y ago
I have no knowledge of this field. Certainly not enough to know if the article is accurate (haven't ever heard of this blog till now). But many of the claims seem well cited. If this is true...how maddening. How can you spend more than the next 10 countries combined and still mismanage your way into this predicament? Is there anything lumbering bureaucracy cannot destroy?
- torstenvl 6y ago
  I'm not going to claim that everything in the DoD is well-managed, but don't discount the advantages China has in gaining more advantages. The PLA never has to cut its budget due to a lack of political will, and China has no qualms about riskier espionage that may get more agents killed or captured but results in being able to steal more advancements in military tech.
  - refenestrator 6y ago
    'Lack of political will to shovel money through the DoD' doesn't seem to be an issue in the US.
    - torstenvl 6y ago
      That is objectively and obviously false. Why would you say something you know (assuming you read the OP) to be untrue? Military spending has gone from 4.89% of GDP in the first year of the Obama Administration to ~3.3-3.4% of GDP in recent years. That's a huge decrease. There's also alllll the times that military appropriations have been a political football. A lot of DoD folks have had to report to work unpaid multiple times over the past couple years. Many of them later got backpay when a budget was passed, but not all. You may not care about the morale and dedication of those people, but this isn't a values-based or tribal-loyalties based discussion. It is an objective fact that China doesn't have to deal with this process and the resulting inefficiencies.
      - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
        Your point would stand on its own just fine without the accusation. Even if your data is correct, refenestrator may not know that data. Don't make accusations like that unless you know (like, provably) that he knows it.
sbierwagen 6y ago
>How did this happen? It started with a Clinton era decision to focus on upgrading legacy platforms instead of developing or purchasing new ones: >By the end of the Bill Clinton administration, the Pentagon had laid out a strategy to update and replace the Reagan-era fleets... Strange not to mention the USSR collapsed two years before Clinton took office. Hard to justify new weapons systems when you're the global hegemon. Who were these new warships going to be used against, Serbia?
- dragontamer 6y ago
  If China attacks Taiwan with its newly minted aircraft carriers and large fleets of smaller ships, who will defend them? Now, I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. China is far closer and therefore has more nearby support: in particular, air support and cruise missiles. In a neutral fight, keeping our fleets outside of Chinese radar / aircraft range will be rather natural. But if we're talking about Taiwan specifically, its clearly a different picture: China can pretty much pepper any ship near Taiwan with its airforce and/or cruise missiles. China invades Taiwan is probably one of the potential fights in this "Terrible 20s" period, where China has enough advantages to seriously consider the move. Not necessarily because of Chinese military spending (which has increased), or technology, but because of simple geographical advantages. A proper invasion of Taiwan isn't even necessary. Chinese naval forces can start a blockade and really mess up international trade. ------------- China vs South Korea is a bit further out but still within a zone where the Chinese Mainland offers a strong advantage to a hypothetical Chinese attacking force.
  - PicassoCTs 6y ago
    China could simply cut off North Korea, collapse it into the south and bring that behemoth to fall.
  - BelenusMordred 6y ago
    Nuclear armed countries fighting direct hot wars will be decided in a few hours. It's astounding to think that some people still subscribe to this idea of a gentleman's battle with both sides agreeing to not use their full capability while the other is killing their own.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
anm89 6y ago
Or, why the endless money we give to our military for toys isnt nearly enough and you will all end up in Chinese prison camps if you don't double the military budget.
everybodyknows 6y ago
Japan sees another option for China. In today's news: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/20-000-Chinese-residents-on-Senkakus-Japan-rushes-to-buoy-defense https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/20-000-Chinese-residents-on...

76 points by jseliger 6y ago

Meta comment: Scholar's Stage is the most interesting blog I've encountered in years and its RSS feed is worth subscribing to. One hopes China doesn't invade Taiwan, as one hopes a pandemic doesn't happen; if China does, a lot of the general audience, accessible material about what is likely to occur will have been published at Scholar's Stage.

incomplete 6y ago
> Meta comment: Scholar's Stage is the most interesting blog I've encountered in years and its RSS feed is worth subscribing to. thanks for the rec... after poking around for 30m, i have to agree that it's worth subbing to. :)
dirtyid 6y ago
Greer writes well on variety of topics and well worth sub/reading. But I would not rely on him for current developments for US/TW/CN topics. He was one of the last holdouts along with Ian Easton of TW can triumph alone crowd, changing his position only recently, years after general consensus from credible thinktanks suggested otherwise. I think he lives in TW and has blinders on - having held his positions so far past expiration date. His writing on the subject since, rather his recent regurgitation of US thinktanks and opinion pieces are more in line with reality. It's nice to see him sober up, but never know when his opinions will drift back into wish fulfilment.
- remarkEon 6y ago
  So you’re saying that, after living in Taiwan and “sobering up” on his defense views, he changed his mind and reconsidered his position? To me this is evidence to take what he says more seriously.
  - dirtyid 6y ago
    With respect to TW, he changed when his position became far past untenable. It's like someone flipping from being climate denialist in 2020 instead of 2010. Being proximate to TW should make their poor military preparedness more, not less apparent for those that follow the subject matter. The response shouldn't be, what a serious mind, but what took so long? Overall he's well worth reading, keeps up to date with literature, does good summaries. But his analysis on TW has been more outlier than consensus. And up until recently, stubbornly so.

cmalloc 6y ago

Having no prior knowledge of national security planning and outlook, this was a great read. Using real time strategy games a reference point for the uninitiated was a nice touch.

snurfer 6y ago

Nuclear weapons are Taiwan's only defence against their asymmetry with China. Unfortunately, that ship sailed in the 1980s.

phtrivier 6y ago

Is taiwan the Sudètes of someone ? What happens if taiwan just gets invaded, like crimea was, and no one balks ?

ohazi 6y ago
There have been unsubstantiated rumors for years that the Taiwanese military has outfitted TSMC fabs with explosives that can be rigged to go off in the event of a mainland invasion in order to deny China access to TSMC capabilities. The rumor doesn't actually need to be true in order to act as a deterrent -- it just needs to be leaked to Chinese officials and considered credible. It also assumes that access to TSMC is a strong motivation for an invasion, which may or may not be true. In any case, the answer to your question depends on whether this is true, and whether the explosives are actually used. If the fabs are destroyed, it'll set the world back by at least a decade. So if you thought the chip shortage was bad today... On the other hand, if it's not true (or if it is, but the fabs aren't destroyed for whatever reason), and operations continue despite an invasion, I can definitely imagine a scenario where the rest of the world just sort of shrugs and goes with it. Kind of a horrifying thought, but what are the alternatives? Attack China? They have nukes. Everyone will condemn China, sure. Then China will get upset and claim that we're all "hurting the feelings of the Chinese people" [1], and that'll be the end of it. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Chinese_people https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurting_the_feelings_of_the_Ch...
- dageshi 6y ago
  The chinese leadership/official position is that Taiwan is part of China. They don't want to invade and retake it because they want TSMC's chips, they want to retake it because they think it's a rebellious province that needs to be brought to heel.
  - ohazi 6y ago
    Right, which may mean that this threat is meaningless, but the rumors are still there, and the outcome is probably what the rest of the world actually cares about when considering the situation.

maxrev17 6y ago

Hmm, wish countries would poll their citizens with regards to wanting a war... I wonder how many would happen?

shigawire 6y ago
Maybe more. Depends on the country.
warkdarrior 6y ago
As many or even more wars, since public opinions are easily swayed through appropriate news/meme campaigns.
torstenvl 6y ago
If war were subject to referendum, only autocracies would wage war. Such a world is not worth living in.
retrac 6y ago
You're downvoted, but it has been postulated that no democracy has ever waged war against another democracy, and that this is a consequence of democratic governance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_peace_theory As far as I can tell, the observation is historically true. The few possible exceptions are pre-modern, very minor, or are debatable whether the societies involved were in fact democratic -- the first war in the Balkans, 19th century border skirmishes in South America, the Western Allies against Finland in WW II, and Iceland's conflict with the UK over fishing, are some of the stronger counter-examples. The effect seems real enough, but I'm not sure if it actually means anything deeper, given the cultural similarity and degree of trade among most democracies.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  Iceland vs. the UK over fishing - how many shots were fired in that? I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that it might have been a skirmish, but it wasn't a war...

paulz_ 6y ago

I have no knowledge of this field. Certainly not enough to know if the article is accurate (haven't ever heard of this blog till now). But many of the claims seem well cited. If this is true...how maddening. How can you spend more than the next 10 countries combined and still mismanage your way into this predicament? Is there anything lumbering bureaucracy cannot destroy?

torstenvl 6y ago
I'm not going to claim that everything in the DoD is well-managed, but don't discount the advantages China has in gaining more advantages. The PLA never has to cut its budget due to a lack of political will, and China has no qualms about riskier espionage that may get more agents killed or captured but results in being able to steal more advancements in military tech.
- refenestrator 6y ago
  'Lack of political will to shovel money through the DoD' doesn't seem to be an issue in the US.
  - torstenvl 6y ago
    That is objectively and obviously false. Why would you say something you know (assuming you read the OP) to be untrue? Military spending has gone from 4.89% of GDP in the first year of the Obama Administration to ~3.3-3.4% of GDP in recent years. That's a huge decrease. There's also alllll the times that military appropriations have been a political football. A lot of DoD folks have had to report to work unpaid multiple times over the past couple years. Many of them later got backpay when a budget was passed, but not all. You may not care about the morale and dedication of those people, but this isn't a values-based or tribal-loyalties based discussion. It is an objective fact that China doesn't have to deal with this process and the resulting inefficiencies.
    - AnimalMuppet 6y ago
      Your point would stand on its own just fine without the accusation. Even if your data is correct, refenestrator may not know that data. Don't make accusations like that unless you know (like, provably) that he knows it.

sbierwagen 6y ago

>How did this happen? It started with a Clinton era decision to focus on upgrading legacy platforms instead of developing or purchasing new ones: >By the end of the Bill Clinton administration, the Pentagon had laid out a strategy to update and replace the Reagan-era fleets... Strange not to mention the USSR collapsed two years before Clinton took office. Hard to justify new weapons systems when you're the global hegemon. Who were these new warships going to be used against, Serbia?

dragontamer 6y ago
If China attacks Taiwan with its newly minted aircraft carriers and large fleets of smaller ships, who will defend them? Now, I'm pretty sure the USA still beats China in a fair fight. But if the USA is playing defense with Taiwan, the picture is very different. China is far closer and therefore has more nearby support: in particular, air support and cruise missiles. In a neutral fight, keeping our fleets outside of Chinese radar / aircraft range will be rather natural. But if we're talking about Taiwan specifically, its clearly a different picture: China can pretty much pepper any ship near Taiwan with its airforce and/or cruise missiles. China invades Taiwan is probably one of the potential fights in this "Terrible 20s" period, where China has enough advantages to seriously consider the move. Not necessarily because of Chinese military spending (which has increased), or technology, but because of simple geographical advantages. A proper invasion of Taiwan isn't even necessary. Chinese naval forces can start a blockade and really mess up international trade. ------------- China vs South Korea is a bit further out but still within a zone where the Chinese Mainland offers a strong advantage to a hypothetical Chinese attacking force.
- PicassoCTs 6y ago
  China could simply cut off North Korea, collapse it into the south and bring that behemoth to fall.
- BelenusMordred 6y ago
  Nuclear armed countries fighting direct hot wars will be decided in a few hours. It's astounding to think that some people still subscribe to this idea of a gentleman's battle with both sides agreeing to not use their full capability while the other is killing their own.

deleted 6y ago

[deleted]

anm89 6y ago

Or, why the endless money we give to our military for toys isnt nearly enough and you will all end up in Chinese prison camps if you don't double the military budget.

everybodyknows 6y ago

Japan sees another option for China. In today's news: https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/20-000-Chinese-residents-on-Senkakus-Japan-rushes-to-buoy-defense https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/20-000-Chinese-residents-on...