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> Perhaps this is unwarranted optimism in the specific case, but as a broader expression of hope in future scientific progress, the long bet wins. Scientific p

> Perhaps this is unwarranted optimism in the specific case, but as a broader expression of hope in future scientific progress, the long bet wins. Scientific progress has and will always win. However, it's almost impossible to predict which dimension/aspect of the scientific progress will accelerate. mRNA is a prime example of it.

dmos62 6y ago
Scientific progress can fail in case of catastrophe (meteor destroys civilization), or if you're constrained by time (e.g. find solution to all problems before next world war starts).
- gotostatement 6y ago
  it also fails if it's corrupted or constrained by outside social forces
mynameisash 6y ago
> Scientific progress has and will always win I wish I could share this optimism, but one thing we've seen in the last year is that people will put themselves and others at risk as part of tribal signaling: "humans are motivated reasoners who alter their thinking, feeling, and behaving when thinking, feeling, and behaving in certain ways might upset their peers."[0] Maybe I'm reading your statement in a different way than you intend it. The science itself is good, but if society isn't leveraging that knowledge for our own betterment, is science winning? [0] https://youarenotsosmart.com/2020/07/31/yanss-185-why-the-reason-behind-why-some-people-refuse-to-wear-masks-during-a-pandemic-has-little-to-do-with-the-masks-themselves/ https://youarenotsosmart.com/2020/07/31/yanss-185-why-the-re...
- nradov 6y ago
  Are you suggesting that eliminating all possible risk to ourselves and others is somehow better? Or if there is an acceptable level of risk then please quantify it. I put others at risk every time I drive my car. In theory I could eliminate that risk by walking everywhere, but I'm unwilling to do so.
  - mynameisash 6y ago
    > Are you suggesting that eliminating all possible risk to ourselves and others is somehow better? That's not at all what I said. What I said was "people will put themselves and others at risk as part of tribal signaling". There's risk everywhere, but adding risk as a way to signal that you're in this group and not in that group is - at least in the case of masks - contrary to scientific progress.
deleted 6y ago
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dmos62 6y ago

Scientific progress can fail in case of catastrophe (meteor destroys civilization), or if you're constrained by time (e.g. find solution to all problems before next world war starts).

gotostatement 6y ago
it also fails if it's corrupted or constrained by outside social forces

mynameisash 6y ago

> Scientific progress has and will always win I wish I could share this optimism, but one thing we've seen in the last year is that people will put themselves and others at risk as part of tribal signaling: "humans are motivated reasoners who alter their thinking, feeling, and behaving when thinking, feeling, and behaving in certain ways might upset their peers."[0] Maybe I'm reading your statement in a different way than you intend it. The science itself is good, but if society isn't leveraging that knowledge for our own betterment, is science winning? [0] https://youarenotsosmart.com/2020/07/31/yanss-185-why-the-reason-behind-why-some-people-refuse-to-wear-masks-during-a-pandemic-has-little-to-do-with-the-masks-themselves/ https://youarenotsosmart.com/2020/07/31/yanss-185-why-the-re...

nradov 6y ago
Are you suggesting that eliminating all possible risk to ourselves and others is somehow better? Or if there is an acceptable level of risk then please quantify it. I put others at risk every time I drive my car. In theory I could eliminate that risk by walking everywhere, but I'm unwilling to do so.
- mynameisash 6y ago
  > Are you suggesting that eliminating all possible risk to ourselves and others is somehow better? That's not at all what I said. What I said was "people will put themselves and others at risk as part of tribal signaling". There's risk everywhere, but adding risk as a way to signal that you're in this group and not in that group is - at least in the case of masks - contrary to scientific progress.

deleted 6y ago

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