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The parent mentions the obviously dramatic impact of infant / child mortality rates. That would definitely apply to the 59 average you're referring to, it's a h

The parent mentions the obviously dramatic impact of infant / child mortality rates. That would definitely apply to the 59 average you're referring to, it's a huge factor in that average. An intentionally simple example of how dramatic it is: Ten people, with 20% of them dying in childhood. Then reduce that to just one dying in childhood. 80, 75, 70, 65, 65, 60, 50, 40, 2, 1 = 50.8 avg Now drop the childhood deaths down to just one. 80, 75, 70, 65, 65, 60, 60, 50, 40, 1 = 56.6 You gained 5.8 years on life expectancy from cutting the rate in half. Now take us from 1650 childhood mortality rates, to affluent modern nations where it's eg 5 deaths per 1000 live births in a nation like Canada (and that's down by 75% from 20 per 1000, 50 years ago). I can only imagine how high the rate was 400 years ago, it would absolutely tank the average in an epic way.

enkid 6y ago
Am I totally misunderstanding the study? Wouldn't this figures be only people who were scholars appointed on adulthood? That would exclude children.
- adventured 6y ago
  I suppose that hinges on whether the parent was opening a broad point about life expectancy from the topic, or only talking about the adult scholars. I'm not sure which they intended, I was guessing based on their phrasing that they were targeting the broader notion of how it's commonly perceived that life expectancy has increased over that time. Bill Gates for example routinely claims in interviews / discussions that there has been a massive gain in life expectancy (technically correct) and he'll claim that broadly (mostly false), dropping context on the fact that it's heavily caused by childhood mortality figures plunging. I've seen him do that numerous times over the years (usually he gets agitated when someone challenges him, moves into sarcastic mode, and points out the huge gains for the average person on life expectancy, which is partially bunk). It's a common point of intellectual dishonesty in the scientific & health establishment, because they want to pretend the life expectancy gains for adults have been far greater than they really have been (for their own self-interested reasons). I suspected the parent comment was riffing on that aspect, where it's a pushed point of quasi propaganda that life expectancy has soared for everyone.
sct202 6y ago
From this paper that is specifically looking at scholars: "Fifth, because the scholars were not appointed until they reached young adulthood, our investigation was limited to adult mortality. The effects of shifts in infant and child mortality on the evolution of life expectancy were neglected."

enkid 6y ago

Am I totally misunderstanding the study? Wouldn't this figures be only people who were scholars appointed on adulthood? That would exclude children.

adventured 6y ago
I suppose that hinges on whether the parent was opening a broad point about life expectancy from the topic, or only talking about the adult scholars. I'm not sure which they intended, I was guessing based on their phrasing that they were targeting the broader notion of how it's commonly perceived that life expectancy has increased over that time. Bill Gates for example routinely claims in interviews / discussions that there has been a massive gain in life expectancy (technically correct) and he'll claim that broadly (mostly false), dropping context on the fact that it's heavily caused by childhood mortality figures plunging. I've seen him do that numerous times over the years (usually he gets agitated when someone challenges him, moves into sarcastic mode, and points out the huge gains for the average person on life expectancy, which is partially bunk). It's a common point of intellectual dishonesty in the scientific & health establishment, because they want to pretend the life expectancy gains for adults have been far greater than they really have been (for their own self-interested reasons). I suspected the parent comment was riffing on that aspect, where it's a pushed point of quasi propaganda that life expectancy has soared for everyone.

sct202 6y ago

From this paper that is specifically looking at scholars: "Fifth, because the scholars were not appointed until they reached young adulthood, our investigation was limited to adult mortality. The effects of shifts in infant and child mortality on the evolution of life expectancy were neglected."