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I agree it's guaranteed to happen. There is no scenario where China doesn't begin to squeeze Taiwan, and likely sooner rather than later. I expect them to initi

I agree it's guaranteed to happen. There is no scenario where China doesn't begin to squeeze Taiwan, and likely sooner rather than later. I expect them to initially pursue a very aggressive Hong Kong style scheme against Taiwan, more so than a full-scale military invasion (which is not the ideal way to take it; that's their last choice among the options). Which year? Who knows, that isn't even important, as nobody can stop what China is inevitably going to do. The West will have no choice but to stand by and watch - maybe with a few gripes, a few trivial sanctions - just as they have with every single thing China has done (Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Covid, Myanmar, and the comprehensive human rights erasure that has occurred in all of China under Xi). I'd bet on it happening during Xi's reign, as it's critical to his pursuit of legacy. He's obsessed with writing his own name into China's history, taking Taiwan (and simultaneously defeating the West as he does it) would be a very big stamp on that. It would formally signal China's new empire-like dominion over Asia. I don't think the US will trade Taiwan as a bargaining chip. By the time the US is willing to trade it, China will fully understand it's not really worth bargaining over any longer. The time to bargain would be now, or in the recent past. If the US Government wanted to get something big for trading Taiwan, during the Trump Administration was the last time to do it (during max tensions), and the trade should have been North Korea being dismantled (as is; meaning the Kim family goes, the nukes go; only China could make that happen) and reunited with South Korea. The US Govt no doubt thinks their bargaining position is stronger than it actually is, and so doesn't think they needed to make such a trade, instead the US will get nothing and Taiwan will end up in China's hands regardless and North Korea will remain a key China pawn.

Clewza313 6y ago
I don't see a military takeover of Taiwan anytime soon. As you yourself said, it's a last resort for China, because they know full well that the island will not go down without a fight, much less stay pliant if conquered. It's also much more strategically important for the US and Japan than Xinjiang etc, and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.
- ekianjo 6y ago
  > and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    The reason for that is because both Taiwan and China insist that you either recognize Taiwan xor you recognize China, but you cannot recognize both. (This is basically what the One China Policy means). Additionally, world wars are never triggered intentionally. World War I broke out essentially because the decision makers ignored the wider consequences of +1'ing their opponent's military preparations (one author characterizes it as Europe sleepwalking into war). World War II broke out unexpectedly because Hitler underestimated the spine the Allies had when he requested they add Danzig to his list of silver platters. World War III will likely break out when someone crosses a red line to one party that isn't clearly communicated to another party--and a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is one of the likelier options on that list.
    - account42 6y ago
      > The reason for that is because both Taiwan and China insist that you either recognize Taiwan xor you recognize China, but you cannot recognize both. The only reason Taiwan "insists" on that is because of the threat of invasion if they declare independence. Just because a bully tells you to stop hitting yourself while they smack your hand into your face does not mean the bully is not doing the hitting.
      - jcranmer 6y ago
        Not quite so. Taiwan was ruled by the losers of China's civil war until about the 1990s (the modern party counterpart is the KMT). From their perspective, "One China" is about "we deserve to own all of China" and concomitant refusal to accept their loss in the war. Their opposing party (the DPP) instead advocates Taiwanese independence and refused to support the "One China" policy, but have declined to make any strident moves towards changing policy in power essentially for the reasons you mention.

Clewza313 6y ago

I don't see a military takeover of Taiwan anytime soon. As you yourself said, it's a last resort for China, because they know full well that the island will not go down without a fight, much less stay pliant if conquered. It's also much more strategically important for the US and Japan than Xinjiang etc, and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.

ekianjo 6y ago
> and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. Very improbable. Nobody cares enough about Taiwan to even officially recognize its existence.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  The reason for that is because both Taiwan and China insist that you either recognize Taiwan xor you recognize China, but you cannot recognize both. (This is basically what the One China Policy means). Additionally, world wars are never triggered intentionally. World War I broke out essentially because the decision makers ignored the wider consequences of +1'ing their opponent's military preparations (one author characterizes it as Europe sleepwalking into war). World War II broke out unexpectedly because Hitler underestimated the spine the Allies had when he requested they add Danzig to his list of silver platters. World War III will likely break out when someone crosses a red line to one party that isn't clearly communicated to another party--and a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan is one of the likelier options on that list.
  - account42 6y ago
    > The reason for that is because both Taiwan and China insist that you either recognize Taiwan xor you recognize China, but you cannot recognize both. The only reason Taiwan "insists" on that is because of the threat of invasion if they declare independence. Just because a bully tells you to stop hitting yourself while they smack your hand into your face does not mean the bully is not doing the hitting.
    - jcranmer 6y ago
      Not quite so. Taiwan was ruled by the losers of China's civil war until about the 1990s (the modern party counterpart is the KMT). From their perspective, "One China" is about "we deserve to own all of China" and concomitant refusal to accept their loss in the war. Their opposing party (the DPP) instead advocates Taiwanese independence and refused to support the "One China" policy, but have declined to make any strident moves towards changing policy in power essentially for the reasons you mention.