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There's talk that China might invade Taiwan in the near future (well, invasion or regaining control, depending on which side you're on, of course). How the US

There's talk that China might invade Taiwan in the near future (well, invasion or regaining control, depending on which side you're on, of course). How the US and the rest of the world would respond is unclear, but obviously there would be a lot of disruption.

nindalf 6y ago
Anyone outside the top echelons of the PLA/CCP who claims to predict when the invasion of Taiwan will happen is a soothsayer. That it will happen is a certainty, which means there's always a ready market of people willing to say it'll happen in the near future. But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.
- paganel 6y ago
  > That it will happen is a certainty, Not saying that you're wrong, because you seem much more informed and involved on/in this subject than I am, but from half the world away I can say that around 10 years or so ago that "certainty" wasn't that "certain", so to speak, at least not from what I could gather by reading the "local" press (mostly the Financial Times and The Economist). Do you happen to have any resources available that further comment on that certainty? Again, not because I'm thinking that you're wrong, but because I'm really curious about this subject (there was a similar Taiwan-related post on the front-page of this website a few days ago but it dropped off pretty quickly).
  - ekianjo 6y ago
    You are looking for sources that will predict the future with accuracy? Taiwan is definitively on the next because it is way too close in distance to China for its own good.
    - paganel 6y ago
      > You are looking for sources that will predict the future with accuracy? No, I was looking for sources that would talk about the "certainty" of invasion by China (in a large enough interval, from let's say tomorrow to 10-20 years into the future), like I said, about 10 years ago that was not the official discourse. "Predicting the future" would be to ask for a specific date/time interval for that supposed invasion, which I did not ask for because that would have been a reasonably difficult task to predict, I concur.
  - nindalf 6y ago
    Since you mentioned the Economist, here's an article from Feb 18th, 2021 - China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan (https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fateful-choices-especially-involving-taiwan https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fatef...). > To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission
    - paganel 6y ago
      Thank you, that is exactly what I was looking about. Certainly a different tone from what I remember reading back then.
- adventured 6y ago
  I agree it's guaranteed to happen. There is no scenario where China doesn't begin to squeeze Taiwan, and likely sooner rather than later. I expect them to initially pursue a very aggressive Hong Kong style scheme against Taiwan, more so than a full-scale military invasion (which is not the ideal way to take it; that's their last choice among the options). Which year? Who knows, that isn't even important, as nobody can stop what China is inevitably going to do. The West will have no choice but to stand by and watch - maybe with a few gripes, a few trivial sanctions - just as they have with every single thing China has done (Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Covid, Myanmar, and the comprehensive human rights erasure that has occurred in all of China under Xi). I'd bet on it happening during Xi's reign, as it's critical to his pursuit of legacy. He's obsessed with writing his own name into China's history, taking Taiwan (and simultaneously defeating the West as he does it) would be a very big stamp on that. It would formally signal China's new empire-like dominion over Asia. I don't think the US will trade Taiwan as a bargaining chip. By the time the US is willing to trade it, China will fully understand it's not really worth bargaining over any longer. The time to bargain would be now, or in the recent past. If the US Government wanted to get something big for trading Taiwan, during the Trump Administration was the last time to do it (during max tensions), and the trade should have been North Korea being dismantled (as is; meaning the Kim family goes, the nukes go; only China could make that happen) and reunited with South Korea. The US Govt no doubt thinks their bargaining position is stronger than it actually is, and so doesn't think they needed to make such a trade, instead the US will get nothing and Taiwan will end up in China's hands regardless and North Korea will remain a key China pawn.
  - Clewza313 6y ago
    I don't see a military takeover of Taiwan anytime soon. As you yourself said, it's a last resort for China, because they know full well that the island will not go down without a fight, much less stay pliant if conquered. It's also much more strategically important for the US and Japan than Xinjiang etc, and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.
- murphy1312 6y ago
  i don’t think it’s going to happen in any case. it depends on what the USA does. if the position is like in the cold war: "this way and no further" china will probably not risk a nuclear war.
- onepointsixC 6y ago
  >At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more. The US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non CCP aligned Taiwan. The only thing that time and time again frustrated the ambitions of Great Powers has been geography. Taiwan is the cork in the bottle containing the PLAN within the first island chain, without which China can operate freely throughout the Pacific. Just about every projection has China become the world's largest economy. America's only play to maintain dominance is to make sure that the tyranny of geography restrains the Chinese from operating militarily as freely as they would want. Much American blood had been shed in winning the Pacific in the first place. America is willing to shed more blood to keep it that way.
  - monocasa 6y ago
    The same way the US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non Russian Federation aligned Crimea. If Taiwan looses it's economic value (say, chip production becomes a commodity when Moore's law truly ends, and the CCP subsidizes local chip production to kill off TSMC), it may not be worth the nuclear war to the CCP 'no'.
- gowld 6y ago
  PRC/CCP cares a lot about "face". "Taking over Taiwan" is much less important than saying they control Taiwan but grant local autonomy.
  - monocasa 6y ago
    'Face' gets overblown. If all they cared about was face, they wouldn't be stacking the Hong Kong Parliament and taking the geopolitical capital hit for it.
    - weswpg 6y ago
      The US military doesn't sell weaponry to HK nor does it have a defence treaty like they do with Taiwan https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense_Treaty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense... imposing control on Hong Kong happened because it did not require high-stakes combat with a nuclear peer competitor
- tallanvor 6y ago
  You could very well be correct. I certainly am not an expert in this area nor am I comfortable making any personal predictions about it. I've just heard more chatter about it than I have in the past.
randomopining 6y ago
The CCP never controlled Taiwan (aka the island of Formosa). Thus let's call a spade a spade. They want to finish the civil war and defeat the opposing side (while gaining control of a physical barrier to their mainland) and probably kill millions of Taiwanese, US/Japanese troops, and their own in the process.
jasonwatkinspdx 6y ago
So we can rule out an attack in the immediate future, and in fact we'll see the buildup for an attack with lots of advance warning. There's just no way to move around 100k plus troops and their equipment without it being observed. China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still. They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done. Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.

nindalf 6y ago

Anyone outside the top echelons of the PLA/CCP who claims to predict when the invasion of Taiwan will happen is a soothsayer. That it will happen is a certainty, which means there's always a ready market of people willing to say it'll happen in the near future. But one thing is certain - it's a question of when, not if. Taking control of Taiwan is too important to the founding myth of the CCP. Every reminder that Taiwan exists is a challenge to their power. Their desire for Taiwan has never wavered in the last 72 years, nor do I think it will ever. Meanwhile Taiwan's main defender (America) has no permanent allies, only permanent interests. Once the semiconductor supply chain is replicated successfully in the US, they might find that they're no longer willing to sacrifice American lives to protect the sovereignty of Taiwan. At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more.

paganel 6y ago
> That it will happen is a certainty, Not saying that you're wrong, because you seem much more informed and involved on/in this subject than I am, but from half the world away I can say that around 10 years or so ago that "certainty" wasn't that "certain", so to speak, at least not from what I could gather by reading the "local" press (mostly the Financial Times and The Economist). Do you happen to have any resources available that further comment on that certainty? Again, not because I'm thinking that you're wrong, but because I'm really curious about this subject (there was a similar Taiwan-related post on the front-page of this website a few days ago but it dropped off pretty quickly).
- ekianjo 6y ago
  You are looking for sources that will predict the future with accuracy? Taiwan is definitively on the next because it is way too close in distance to China for its own good.
  - paganel 6y ago
    > You are looking for sources that will predict the future with accuracy? No, I was looking for sources that would talk about the "certainty" of invasion by China (in a large enough interval, from let's say tomorrow to 10-20 years into the future), like I said, about 10 years ago that was not the official discourse. "Predicting the future" would be to ask for a specific date/time interval for that supposed invasion, which I did not ask for because that would have been a reasonably difficult task to predict, I concur.
- nindalf 6y ago
  Since you mentioned the Economist, here's an article from Feb 18th, 2021 - China faces fateful choices, especially involving Taiwan (https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fateful-choices-especially-involving-taiwan https://www.economist.com/china/2021/02/20/china-faces-fatef...). > To many Chinese, the island’s conquest is a sacred national mission
  - paganel 6y ago
    Thank you, that is exactly what I was looking about. Certainly a different tone from what I remember reading back then.
adventured 6y ago
I agree it's guaranteed to happen. There is no scenario where China doesn't begin to squeeze Taiwan, and likely sooner rather than later. I expect them to initially pursue a very aggressive Hong Kong style scheme against Taiwan, more so than a full-scale military invasion (which is not the ideal way to take it; that's their last choice among the options). Which year? Who knows, that isn't even important, as nobody can stop what China is inevitably going to do. The West will have no choice but to stand by and watch - maybe with a few gripes, a few trivial sanctions - just as they have with every single thing China has done (Tibet, Xinjiang, Hong Kong, South China Sea, Covid, Myanmar, and the comprehensive human rights erasure that has occurred in all of China under Xi). I'd bet on it happening during Xi's reign, as it's critical to his pursuit of legacy. He's obsessed with writing his own name into China's history, taking Taiwan (and simultaneously defeating the West as he does it) would be a very big stamp on that. It would formally signal China's new empire-like dominion over Asia. I don't think the US will trade Taiwan as a bargaining chip. By the time the US is willing to trade it, China will fully understand it's not really worth bargaining over any longer. The time to bargain would be now, or in the recent past. If the US Government wanted to get something big for trading Taiwan, during the Trump Administration was the last time to do it (during max tensions), and the trade should have been North Korea being dismantled (as is; meaning the Kim family goes, the nukes go; only China could make that happen) and reunited with South Korea. The US Govt no doubt thinks their bargaining position is stronger than it actually is, and so doesn't think they needed to make such a trade, instead the US will get nothing and Taiwan will end up in China's hands regardless and North Korea will remain a key China pawn.
- Clewza313 6y ago
  I don't see a military takeover of Taiwan anytime soon. As you yourself said, it's a last resort for China, because they know full well that the island will not go down without a fight, much less stay pliant if conquered. It's also much more strategically important for the US and Japan than Xinjiang etc, and an attack still has a non-zero chance of triggering WW3. I think China is happy to play the long game, since every passing year strengthens their position and weakens Taiwan's. But who knows what will happen with the next CCP succession.
murphy1312 6y ago
i don’t think it’s going to happen in any case. it depends on what the USA does. if the position is like in the cold war: "this way and no further" china will probably not risk a nuclear war.
onepointsixC 6y ago
>At some point in the next 10-40 years, Taiwan will be a bargaining chip America will trade away for something else they value more. The US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non CCP aligned Taiwan. The only thing that time and time again frustrated the ambitions of Great Powers has been geography. Taiwan is the cork in the bottle containing the PLAN within the first island chain, without which China can operate freely throughout the Pacific. Just about every projection has China become the world's largest economy. America's only play to maintain dominance is to make sure that the tyranny of geography restrains the Chinese from operating militarily as freely as they would want. Much American blood had been shed in winning the Pacific in the first place. America is willing to shed more blood to keep it that way.
- monocasa 6y ago
  The same way the US has a permanent interest in the continued existence of an independent, non Russian Federation aligned Crimea. If Taiwan looses it's economic value (say, chip production becomes a commodity when Moore's law truly ends, and the CCP subsidizes local chip production to kill off TSMC), it may not be worth the nuclear war to the CCP 'no'.
gowld 6y ago
PRC/CCP cares a lot about "face". "Taking over Taiwan" is much less important than saying they control Taiwan but grant local autonomy.
- monocasa 6y ago
  'Face' gets overblown. If all they cared about was face, they wouldn't be stacking the Hong Kong Parliament and taking the geopolitical capital hit for it.
  - weswpg 6y ago
    The US military doesn't sell weaponry to HK nor does it have a defence treaty like they do with Taiwan https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense_Treaty https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-American_Mutual_Defense... imposing control on Hong Kong happened because it did not require high-stakes combat with a nuclear peer competitor
tallanvor 6y ago
You could very well be correct. I certainly am not an expert in this area nor am I comfortable making any personal predictions about it. I've just heard more chatter about it than I have in the past.

randomopining 6y ago

The CCP never controlled Taiwan (aka the island of Formosa). Thus let's call a spade a spade. They want to finish the civil war and defeat the opposing side (while gaining control of a physical barrier to their mainland) and probably kill millions of Taiwanese, US/Japanese troops, and their own in the process.

jasonwatkinspdx 6y ago

So we can rule out an attack in the immediate future, and in fact we'll see the buildup for an attack with lots of advance warning. There's just no way to move around 100k plus troops and their equipment without it being observed. China currently lacks sufficient amphibious assault ships to actually move enough troops to take control of the island. They certainly can bomb the crap out of it, but they won't have the resources necessary for boots on the ground for some time still. They're building ships fast, but it's still something like a 15 year horizon before they'll have sufficient material, perhaps longer. At the least we can expect them to wait until the 2 carriers they're constructing are done. Most credible analysts I've read believe a serious attempt at invading the island won't come until Xi's successor. Rick Joe is good to read on this topic. He writes for the major media outlets, as well as posting as PLARealtalk on reddit.