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Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.

by Leary 6y ago

not_exactly__ 6y ago
Not so fast. China managing 1st place isn’t a foregone conclusion. Ill blame those pesky demographic trends first.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- justinzollars 6y ago
  Its already number one by many measures: - world trade - PPP - Navy size
jonathannat 6y ago
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about-size-their-economy-135107 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about... Yes China Is Lying About the Size of Their Economy https://fortune.com/2021/03/11/stimulus-package-covid-relief-us-economy-gdp-china-growth/ https://fortune.com/2021/03/11/stimulus-package-covid-relief... The $1.9 trillion stimulus package could see the U.S. economy outpace China’s for the first time in 45 years https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414648-chinas-shifting-demographics-suggest-slower-economic-growth https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414648-chinas-shifting-dem... China's Shifting Demographics Suggest Slower Economic growth https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/05/china-economic-growth-peoples-congress/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/05/china-economic-growth-p... China Signals Economic Caution at People’s Congress
- justinzollars 6y ago
  https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-worl... China GDP will be much larger than US by 2050 https://www.politico.eu/article/china-topples-us-as-eus-top-trade-partner-over-2020/ https://www.politico.eu/article/china-topples-us-as-eus-top-... China topples US as EU Top trade partner https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/08/20/Report-Chinas-military-could-overwhelm-US-forces-in-Indo-Pacific-region/8051566319200/ https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/08/20/Report-Chinas-mi... Report: China's military could overwhelm U.S. forces in Indo-Pacific region https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-01/From-nobody-to-somebody-China-s-high-speed-rail-in-numbers-Udm6mE3qqA/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-01/From-nobody-to-somebod... China has the worlds largest high speed rail network
  - jonathannat 6y ago
    first link is "The World in 2050 report was published in February 2017" second link is only regarding goods. goods + services, US is EU top trade partner third link: there are now Japan/Australian/US/UK/France/German warships patrolling in the indo-pacific region. fourth link: costly to maintain, uncertainty post covid
    - justinzollars 6y ago
      Many British believed they were number 1, a world leader, long after they were left behind and this was not the case.
      - inawarminister 6y ago
        Britain fell due to the necessity of containing a neighbouring state which have bigger population, better productivity, and the advantage of not having an empire abroad of a continent. At the end, the Brits fell after pummeling Germany two times. Both haven't recovered fully today. So this historical analogue doesn't really speak well to both US and China in the next, say, 3 generations. Wonder who would be the US in this situation though.
        justinzollars 6y ago
        The analog was regarding denial. Not the circumstances leading to losing the position of hegemon.
seanmcdirmid 6y ago
Ya, its just like what everyone said about Japan’s growth trajectory in the 1980s. Similar predictions even.
- justinzollars 6y ago
  Except China is 4 United States's.
  - seanmcdirmid 6y ago
    Bigger size/more population only makes the problem harder.
rsj_hn 6y ago
Did you know that the GDP of Africa is two trillion dollars (PPP)? So Africa has surpassed Canada, right? What matters is GDP/capita, not total output in a nation of 1.4 Billion people. You can easily get "first place" by redrawing boundaries around a bunch of poor and middle income nations. That redraw doesn't make anyone better off.

Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.

by Leary 6y ago

Declining economy? It's going to decline itself to 1st place by 2030.

not_exactly__ 6y ago

Not so fast. China managing 1st place isn’t a foregone conclusion. Ill blame those pesky demographic trends first.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
justinzollars 6y ago
Its already number one by many measures: - world trade - PPP - Navy size

jonathannat 6y ago

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about-size-their-economy-135107 https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/yes-china-lying-about... Yes China Is Lying About the Size of Their Economy https://fortune.com/2021/03/11/stimulus-package-covid-relief-us-economy-gdp-china-growth/ https://fortune.com/2021/03/11/stimulus-package-covid-relief... The $1.9 trillion stimulus package could see the U.S. economy outpace China’s for the first time in 45 years https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414648-chinas-shifting-demographics-suggest-slower-economic-growth https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414648-chinas-shifting-dem... China's Shifting Demographics Suggest Slower Economic growth https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/05/china-economic-growth-peoples-congress/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/03/05/china-economic-growth-p... China Signals Economic Caution at People’s Congress

justinzollars 6y ago
https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-world-in-2050.html https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/research-insights/economy/the-worl... China GDP will be much larger than US by 2050 https://www.politico.eu/article/china-topples-us-as-eus-top-trade-partner-over-2020/ https://www.politico.eu/article/china-topples-us-as-eus-top-... China topples US as EU Top trade partner https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/08/20/Report-Chinas-military-could-overwhelm-US-forces-in-Indo-Pacific-region/8051566319200/ https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2019/08/20/Report-Chinas-mi... Report: China's military could overwhelm U.S. forces in Indo-Pacific region https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-01/From-nobody-to-somebody-China-s-high-speed-rail-in-numbers-Udm6mE3qqA/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-10-01/From-nobody-to-somebod... China has the worlds largest high speed rail network
- jonathannat 6y ago
  first link is "The World in 2050 report was published in February 2017" second link is only regarding goods. goods + services, US is EU top trade partner third link: there are now Japan/Australian/US/UK/France/German warships patrolling in the indo-pacific region. fourth link: costly to maintain, uncertainty post covid
  - justinzollars 6y ago
    Many British believed they were number 1, a world leader, long after they were left behind and this was not the case.
    - inawarminister 6y ago
      Britain fell due to the necessity of containing a neighbouring state which have bigger population, better productivity, and the advantage of not having an empire abroad of a continent. At the end, the Brits fell after pummeling Germany two times. Both haven't recovered fully today. So this historical analogue doesn't really speak well to both US and China in the next, say, 3 generations. Wonder who would be the US in this situation though.
      - justinzollars 6y ago
        The analog was regarding denial. Not the circumstances leading to losing the position of hegemon.

seanmcdirmid 6y ago

Ya, its just like what everyone said about Japan’s growth trajectory in the 1980s. Similar predictions even.

justinzollars 6y ago
Except China is 4 United States's.
- seanmcdirmid 6y ago
  Bigger size/more population only makes the problem harder.

rsj_hn 6y ago

Did you know that the GDP of Africa is two trillion dollars (PPP)? So Africa has surpassed Canada, right? What matters is GDP/capita, not total output in a nation of 1.4 Billion people. You can easily get "first place" by redrawing boundaries around a bunch of poor and middle income nations. That redraw doesn't make anyone better off.