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Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US in
by summerlight 6y ago
Let's assess its feasibility first. In the point of the China military view, a significant portion of the Taiwan island occupation must be done before the US intervention. And their limited amphibious attack capability complicates the problem. Taiwan has 200k standing army and 250k more reserve forces, thus China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or less. Otherwise, it will need to face the 7th fleet which will make the further amphibious invasion much harder.
And yes, the current China navy is not capable of doing so, and this is perfectly natural because the scale of such amphibious invasion in a such short time frame is non-precedent. They are desperately ramping up the capability of course, but it is not a that easy work. And the associated cost on the failure is pretty clear; they will lose its grip on South China sea. Taiwan re-unification is somehow political idealism-driven, but the control on South China sea is directly connected to China's national interest.
- leereeves 6y ago> China probably needs to deploy at least 500k, preferably more than 1M of its army into Taiwan within a week or less. To give that historical perspective, about 160k Allied troops landed in Normandy on D-Day.
- SpicyLemonZest 6y agoThe scale you're describing strikes me as simply not possible. 500k troops is a full quarter of the active PLA forces; I don't think they could even get into position for that invasion without weeks or months of obvious, undeniable preparations.
- dirtyid 6y agoPRC will face the 7th fleet and more regardless, that's the default expectation and pretty much the singular vision shaping Chinese military modernization. Everything is oriented towards sufficiently confronting USN far out in SCS / Malacca - far away from Taiwan, preferably in enough numbers to deter actual battle or blockade. Taiwan itself has little baring on SCS security. It will be mostly peer affair between China and US. Taking TW itself is a much easier problem and IMO already forgone assuming USN can be managed away from theatre. There aren't any recent credible war games by PRC/US that suggests Taiwan forces can hold out for more than days/weeks. The expectation is unfettered PRC air superiority which opens up options for invasion or IMO more likely, blockades or quarantines to siege island into compliance with out boots on the ground. TW is grossly food and energy insecure and an un-reinforceable island within PRC A2AD that it's doubtful US can penetrate. PRC on domestic war economy + reserves can maintain military several times larger than what she currently fields, she is not Japan. The complete lack of amphib acquisitions on PRC modernization suggest to me a massive invasion is not default. The entire concept of DDAY style invasion is anachronistic, based on period where PRC military was limited to WW2 capabilities not 2020 or 2035, or 2050.
- logotype 6y agoWarning: account affiliated with the CCP.