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I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with ta

I think this article essentially misses the mark. China isn't flirting with taking Taiwan because the leader is willing to take risks; China is flirting with taking Taiwan because it now has overwhelming military superiority over Taiwan. The United States has bases thousands of miles away while Chinese bases are literally right there. China's capital spending on military capabilities (new + direct research & development) is almost certainly higher than the United States which is burdened by personnel spending and world spanning commitments. China can afford to focus its gigantic military preparations on a single objective; its preparations are literally mind-blowing. As for when China will seek or threaten a military solution it depends on tradeoffs that only the leadership knows. Does China want a provocation to unify its society in a war? What margin of military superiority does it require to avoid long term economic damage to Taiwan's economic prospects? Will the world become more dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors or less? Most importantly, how does CCP view the benefits of ruling a unified China as opposed to the costs of a war?

hyperion2010 6y ago
I think you are forgetting that there are nuclear missile submarines within striking distance of every major Chinese city. This is a game of chicken, not a game of "who has better logistics."
- magicsmoke 6y ago
  I'm sure getting SF and LA nuked because the US lobbed a couple at Beijing and Shanghai first will play great with the electorate. It would also be the third time the US unilaterally used nuclear weapons first which I'm sure has no international political implications.
  - hyperion2010 6y ago
    After reading this I had a sad chuckle when I realized that as described these events would actually play pretty darned well with a large swath of the electorate :/
    - magicsmoke 6y ago
      Unfortunately, I can think of voter demographics that wouldn't mind having those four cities wiped off the map as well. We haven't had a total war in so long that we're like a child that doesn't know how much touching a hot stove could hurt.
- nradov 6y ago
  I doubt the US would launch a nuclear countervalue first strike against Chinese cities. A more likely scenario would be that the Chinese use a tactical nuclear weapon to knock out a US Navy carrier, and then the US retaliates against a Chinese military base, and then the situation escalates from there.
2OEH8eoCRo0 6y ago
Taiwan is 749km from Okinawa which houses III Marine Expeditionary Force

hyperion2010 6y ago

I think you are forgetting that there are nuclear missile submarines within striking distance of every major Chinese city. This is a game of chicken, not a game of "who has better logistics."

magicsmoke 6y ago
I'm sure getting SF and LA nuked because the US lobbed a couple at Beijing and Shanghai first will play great with the electorate. It would also be the third time the US unilaterally used nuclear weapons first which I'm sure has no international political implications.
- hyperion2010 6y ago
  After reading this I had a sad chuckle when I realized that as described these events would actually play pretty darned well with a large swath of the electorate :/
  - magicsmoke 6y ago
    Unfortunately, I can think of voter demographics that wouldn't mind having those four cities wiped off the map as well. We haven't had a total war in so long that we're like a child that doesn't know how much touching a hot stove could hurt.
nradov 6y ago
I doubt the US would launch a nuclear countervalue first strike against Chinese cities. A more likely scenario would be that the Chinese use a tactical nuclear weapon to knock out a US Navy carrier, and then the US retaliates against a Chinese military base, and then the situation escalates from there.

2OEH8eoCRo0 6y ago

Taiwan is 749km from Okinawa which houses III Marine Expeditionary Force