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>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general w
by aphextron 6y ago
>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested."
I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII.
It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.
- riku_iki 6y ago> we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.
- hilbertseries 6y ago> will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.
- riku_iki 6y ago> The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa
- Redoubts 6y ago> can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. How can anyone take this seriously after early 2020’s hysteria around mask and ventilator construction
- hilbertseries 6y agoGonna need a citation on that easily substituted. Ending trade with China would kill Apple for instance.
- riku_iki 6y agohttps://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/made-in-india-iphone-12-to-hit-stores-in-april-may/story/433473.html https://www.businesstoday.in/technology/news/made-in-india-i...
- randmeerkat 6y agoI believe there would be strong domestic support in the US for committing the full strength of the US military to Taiwan’s defense. It’s not sending American soldiers to die for for Taiwan, its sending American soldiers to fight for western values and allies that America is legally obligated to defend.
- deleted 6y ago[deleted]
- FpUser 6y agoThere is no legal obligation to defend Taiwan. And all obligations are as good as nothing until there is an enforcement present. Good luck trying to enforce US. >"fight for western values" - you mean risking WWIII to make sure that few fat cats do not loose their investments? How's that protection of western values went in places like Yemen?
- powersnail 6y agoWell, to take TW, Mainland must send navy, which is easily intercepted by US. The island isn’t actually that close to the mainland. This is different from the human rights issues in China where the PLA is already there. Call me optimistic, but the mere risk of US involvement is enough to deter a military takeover.
- kelnos 6y ago> Well, to take TW, Mainland must send navy, which is easily intercepted by US. The island isn’t actually that close to the mainland. Taiwan is a little over 100km off the coast of mainland China. That's nothing, and the Chinese navy could easily get there without any interference from anyone. They wouldn't even have to; if they just wanted to cause damage, they could start firing missiles from the mainland without sending any ships or planes.
- adrianmonk 6y ago> no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan There could also be support in the US for keeping China from expanding its power to the point where it can rival the US. That is, fighting against China rather than for Taiwan. I'm not saying that would necessarily be enough either, but people are more willing to die to protect their own country's interests than to help someone else. EDIT: Not sure of the reason for downvotes. I'm not advocating for this. I'm just saying it is something that could happen. To the extent that American soldiers went to Korea and Vietnam willingly, it wasn't because they wanted to help the people there. It was because they wanted to stop the USSR.
- nradov 6y agoThere are powerful voices working behind the scenes within the US military industrial complex who believe that an eventual conflict with China is inevitable. So they would prefer to provoke that conflict sooner rather than wait for China to grow stronger. (I don't agree with this approach, I'm just pointing out that it is one school of thought.)
- whoooooo123 6y agoSource? Where can I read more about these "powerful voices"?
- randmeerkat 6y agoI’ve noticed the downvotes too, it’s happened anytime I’ve said anything critical of China, even if it was constructive.
- nradov 6y agoRegardless of US public opinion, if an invasion starts then the US Navy will likely get involved. It might be very limited to start, but inevitably there will be an incident with significant US casualties. And then we'll retaliate and the conflict will escalate.
- slowmovintarget 6y agoAnd while we've been asleep focusing on tearing ourselves apart with political divides, China's been preparing for exactly that. The reason war is likely is because they're ready for it. They think like Go players, not like Chess players.
- javert 6y agoThis seems like a snide, evasive response. I prefer honest and direct.
- newsclues 6y agoI think the United States could mobilize gamers to go to war for TSMC and Taiwan
- whoooooo123 6y agoSo at what point should the West get involved? Do you think that China is going to stop after it takes Taiwan?