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>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite fo

>Also it's not like Crimea annexation where the aggressor had local support. Although very much like Crimea, there will be practically zero popular appetite for igniting an open war between two nuclear armed nation states. We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution, but I would strongly doubt that military action will be responded to in kind by the west. A much more likely scenario is what we've seen play out in Hong Kong for the last 30 years.

javert 6y ago
> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.
- Flatcircle 6y ago
  Nuclear powers don't really have kinetic wars. I think the only one that happened was a small skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999. The Kargil War. Proxy wars are more likely. And even more likely than that, would be severe economic sanctions. Which in this instance would hit home to many more Americans than an actual war. If the invasion of Taiwan set in motion a series of escalating sanctions and freezes in trade, well that could get much worse than people think. A chain reaction of unseen consequences.
- aphextron 6y ago
  >"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.
  - riku_iki 6y ago
    > we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.
    - hilbertseries 6y ago
      > will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.
      - riku_iki 6y ago
        > The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa
        Redoubts 6y ago
        > can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. How can anyone take this seriously after early 2020’s hysteria around mask and ventilator construction
        hilbertseries 6y ago
        Gonna need a citation on that easily substituted. Ending trade with China would kill Apple for instance.
        6y ago
deleted 6y ago
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javert 6y ago

> We can only hope for a diplomatic resolution That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested. I hope for either no conflict at all, or for Taiwan's allies to help defend it.

Flatcircle 6y ago
Nuclear powers don't really have kinetic wars. I think the only one that happened was a small skirmish between India and Pakistan in 1999. The Kargil War. Proxy wars are more likely. And even more likely than that, would be severe economic sanctions. Which in this instance would hit home to many more Americans than an actual war. If the invasion of Taiwan set in motion a series of escalating sanctions and freezes in trade, well that could get much worse than people think. A chain reaction of unseen consequences.
aphextron 6y ago
>"That makes it seem like you want China to take Taiwan uncontested." I, like any sane person, would like to avoid WWIII. It's easy to play armchair general with no skin in the game. But the reality is that there would be no support in the US for sending American soldiers to die for Taiwan. Let alone the nuclear ramifications. If Beijing decides to take it, we will sit here and watch. The same way we do currently as they commit massive genocide in their own country.
- riku_iki 6y ago
  > we will sit here and watch I think there will be very significant economic escalation. US + EU and probably some local countries (India, Vietnam Indonesia) will just ban all Chinese trade, maybe force Japan and SK do the same. China may get some Taiwanese fabs, but it's only single cell in supply chain, and may be rendered useless without integration into global economy.
  - hilbertseries 6y ago
    > will just ban all Chinese trade This can’t be done without triggering a depression and causing massive shortages. The economies are too connected. We could add more sanctions, increase tariffs look at better trade deals to encourage buying non China. But the idea of just banning Chinese trade is fantasy.
    - riku_iki 6y ago
      > The economies are too connected US export to China represents only 6% of total (100B out of 1.5T) and import is 18% (439B out of 2.38T). Most of import is likely not critical and can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. Source of data: https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa https://oec.world/en/profile/country/usa
      - Redoubts 6y ago
        > can easily be substituted by domestic manufacturers, or manufacturers from other countries. How can anyone take this seriously after early 2020’s hysteria around mask and ventilator construction
      - hilbertseries 6y ago
        Gonna need a citation on that easily substituted. Ending trade with China would kill Apple for instance.
        6y ago

deleted 6y ago

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