10 ms·

US Mortality Monitoring – Deaths, Excess, Z-Scores, State Map

47 points by benmarten 6y ago

tomcooks 6y ago
Would be interesting to also see top causes of those deaths
- boomboomsubban 6y ago
  Only one year but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:10_leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2015-USA.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:10_leading_causes_of_deat...
consp 6y ago
A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/
- cies 6y ago
  This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself, so I take that into account. The main problem I have with the US data (z-scores) is that they dont include 2018 which had a serious flu going around killing a lot. The Euromomo data does show that 2018 flu spike of mortality. And that puts things in perspective.
  - consp 6y ago
    Keep in mind the following: the flue spike was without any decent form of measures. We can do a lot to reduce those. Also note that while your anacdotal evidence is sad, it does not take into account that without those measures they might have been as badly off as well due to even more sick people being around at the same time. People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.
    - cies 6y ago
      > the flue spike was without any decent form of measures I agree flu vaccines are worthless. :) > People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse. Totally agree! But I'm just saying that the spike also contain collateral deaths (for lack of a better word). And yes it's totally anecdotal that I know two of those, and not know even one person who was even hospitalized from C19.
      - tialaramex 6y ago
        The effectiveness of seasonal Influenza vaccination depends on two things. First we have to guess which Influenza strains to vaccinate against, if we guess the wrong strains then it doesn't much matter that you're immune because you got a different strain anyway. Second the virus drifts even if we guess perfectly and it might evade the vaccine. When you get the jab, both these things are still hard or impossible to know, so as long as the side effects of vaccination remain very mild for almost everybody it's worth a shot (pun intended). Some years it works very well indeed. It's worth distinguishing between deaths due to measures imposed to manage the pandemic (which we could have hypothetically avoided by just allowing the pandemic to run its course, presumably killing millions more people) and those due to direct consequences of the pandemic which you can't avoid except by hypothesising "What if magically this virus didn't exist?". For example hospitals get overrun with patients and withdraw all but emergency care, resulting in excess deaths, but you can't wish that away. Or people are too scared of the virus to seek help so they die unnecessarily, again nowhere (except maybe China at the extreme?) told people "You must not leave your home to escape a violent partner" or "Don't call an ambulance if you have a heart attack, you might get infected" so those deaths aren't a result of a policy decision they're a consequence of the pandemic itself.
        ceejayoz 6y ago
        There's a third thing: Not enough people take it.
  - cycomanic 6y ago
    Well the interesting thing is that the Euromono data shows a similar trend as the US data, especially if including the 2018 data. The 15-44 year olds while essentially not affected by the 2018 flu did see a spike for covid. I think it would be interesting if the group could be further split up into 15-24 and 25-44 year olds, like the US data. Regarding the 2018 flu spike, putting things into perspective. I would say yes it does, because it shows how significantly bigger the spike for covid was/is.
    - cies 6y ago
      > significantly bigger In some cases. See the Euromomo z-index data per country. Some are unaffected by the flu and C19. Where flu kills tops 0.1% of a population, C19 seems to kill 0.8% at most.
  - jinjin2 6y ago
    > I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself If you look at the global rates of excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”) It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutdowns themselves have very low impact.
    - OnACoffeeBreak 6y ago
      I don't think we have the data to answer the question posed by the grandparent comment. Lifespans have likely been reduced by response to the pandemic. Those whose lifespans have been reduced are still alive and are not showing up in death statistics today. For example, my grandmother-in-law was selfsufficient before the pandemic. During the pandemic she pretty much stayed in her apartment which resulted in significant loss of mobility. We're not sure whether she'll regain her selfsufficiency, which will probably result in her dying sooner rather than later.
      - JimTheMan 6y ago
        That's very sad to here about your grandmother in law. I too definitely felt an impact of lockdown, it's not zero impact at all. However looking at other places in the world (not Australia) that had ineffective measures, it's like comparing certain death for a large swathe of the population vs reduced quality of life that many, but not all will recover from.
    - rimliu 6y ago
      We (Lithuania) had a very early and strict shutdow last year and fared wery well during the first wave. We are going into the fifth month of the very strict shutdown during the second wave and we have tons of excess deaths.
throwaway13337 6y ago
According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group. That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?
- usr1106 6y ago
  My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group. But my statistics math is on a very basic level...
  - enkid 6y ago
    That's not what excess deaths mean. Excess deaths is number of deaths above previous years average. It has nothing to do with age, other than tracking who has died at what age.
    - rimliu 6y ago
      True, but it will be interesting to see if there is reduction of the excess deaths next year. A. k. a. The harvesting theory.
    - usr1106 6y ago
      So why would you not be able to categorize excess death into age groups? Last period 100 70 - 90 years old died. This period 110. If they died only a fraction of the period earlier, they would have shown up in the same category anyway with some probability. This period 5 20-40 years old died, this year 10 Normally they would have died decades later, so they would have not shown up in this category during the period. (Of course with small numbers statisical relevance decreases. But I have understood in countries with many covid deaths in elderly care excess deaths for high age categories did not increase that much over a year.) This would show a 10% increase in the older group, but a 50% increase in the younger group. Of course
thomasfromcdnjs 6y ago
I don't really get these excess death calculations. Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough. Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?) The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population) Then you have to choose a range for your generation 50-80 year olds etc If Covid kills a large proportion over 80, and your range for generations is 50-79, the data would be completely off yet again. There must be a lot more facets to take into consideration. I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing? It would be nice to put my money where my mouth is and actually just do my own study. But can't think of a country who would have reliable stats going back 60 years on death tallies. (Semi relevant paper on looking at ageing population stats -> https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/494025 https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/494025)
- altacc 6y ago
  Over 60 years you would have to account for the many other factors that also affected mortality, for example better healthcare. That would increase the statistical error and reduce the validity of the results. And it isn't really necessary as long as your baseline contains enough data to be able to prove statistically differences from your comparison groups. Generations are taken into account by splitting the results by age and not looking back too many years, as even with flu, cold winters, etc... life expectancy still changes slowly.
- tumetab1 6y ago
  > I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing? I think you're just missing the definition of "excess death", it's literally how much more deaths were registered against an average of the last years. It's just a basic indicator that indicates that something has happened and further investigation is required to clarify the reasons. If the "excess deaths" was raised because the "baby boomers" generation was dying off a further investigation would be required to identify that.
  - thomasfromcdnjs 6y ago
bjourne 6y ago
Does anyone know where to find death statistics for the US for years prior to 2020? Apparently, 3,436,576 persons died in 2020, but what was the totals for 2010 to 2019?
- galangalalgol 6y ago
  The cdc fluview mortality page. You have to download it as csv, the web plots are flu and pnumonia eatimates. One interesting observation is that the extra deaths during the pandemic are only a third of the deaths attributed to covid. That implies that two thirds of the covid deaths would have been expected anyway last year without covid?
  - labatyd 6y ago
    Above 70, the death rate starts to skyrocket naturally. This was also one of the highest risk groups for COVID. A lot of people who were likely to fall down and die or have a stroke/heart attack and never recover instead caught COVID and died a few months earlier. Remember to hug your parents/grandparents as life is short and none of us is promised tomorrow.
  - nibsfive 6y ago
    That's accurate of other countries. Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero.
    - andybak 6y ago
      > Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero. The data in this post seems to contradict that so you would need to specifically address that. The fact you said "zero" rather than some small amount gives me some doubt you are debating in good faith.
- protomyth 6y ago
  https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fnchs%2Fdeaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https... Is a good starting point. CDC is the keeper of those stats in the US.
phkahler 6y ago
I dont doubt Covid has caused a bunch of these deaths, particularly in the first wave. But it would be nice to break out suicides and overdoses, as mental health issues are on the rise as a result of lockdowns and the economic fallout.
- londons_explore 6y ago
  The fact that the 0-24 age range (typically dominated by car accidents and suicides) doesn't see much change suggests that the effect you are suggesting is small or nonexistent.
  - tremon 6y ago
    Your argument doesn't prove that. Using that logic, given that we (collectively) make much fewer car miles due to the lockdowns, we should see a downward change in that age range. Since we don't see a change, that may mean that suicides are on the rise, offsetting the reduction in traffic fatalities.
- Taniwha 6y ago
  Here in NZ during our much harsher, but only 6 weeks, lockdown we had a small number of covid deaths, but they were eclipsed by the drop in the road toll - thru 2020 the almost lack of a flu season due to the covid precautions meant a further drop in the annual death rate.
  - tantalor 6y ago
    "road toll"? Is that an idiom or do you mean fees charged to drivers?
    - ceejayoz 6y ago
      "The death toll incurred by driving on roads".
      - 6y ago
sega_sai 6y ago
And here is the excess mortality data for all countries https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/main/img/all-countries.png https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/ma... from https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality
ArkanExplorer 6y ago
Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?
- labatyd 6y ago
  The quality and trustworthiness of that data will vary from very high to we know for a fact its made up.
- ciceryadam 6y ago
  A journalist in Slovakia did a comparison of current weekly deaths vs extreme values for 2000-2019: https://dennikn.sk/2304197/prehliadli-sme-mozno-az-styritisic-obeti-pandemie-ukazuju-nadmerne-umrtia-zda-sa-ze-vrchol-mame-za-sebou/ https://dennikn.sk/2304197/prehliadli-sme-mozno-az-styritisi... - the grey dotted dash line is the extreme values for the last 2 decades, red line is the current deaths, black dotted dash line is the threshold of standard deviation. The most extreme value in the last 2 decades was 1411 deaths per week, last week of 2020 had 2059 deaths per week.
  - ArkanExplorer 6y ago
    These weekly death stats are not useful because if no one dies in week 1, but everyone dies instead in week 2 (plus those who would have died anyway in week 2), it will show week 2 as being catastrophic, and everyone will just ignore week 1. We need the raw annual data which basically removes this noise.
    - mrow84 6y ago
      If you look at the chart the death in 2020/2021 are well outside the extremal values for the previous two decades, and the "mass" contained there is much larger than the cumulative discrepancies for earlier in 2020. At that level of signal I don't think the weekly data can be dismissed as not useful.

47 points by benmarten 6y ago

tomcooks 6y ago

Would be interesting to also see top causes of those deaths

boomboomsubban 6y ago
Only one year but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:10_leading_causes_of_death_by_age_group_2015-USA.pdf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:10_leading_causes_of_deat...

consp 6y ago

A similar page for Europe: https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/ https://euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/

cies 6y ago
This is what I've been looking at a lot lately. I dont trust any data related to PCR-tests, as those tests are not one but many tests. The number of cycles used, and the number of chains looked for is different from PCR to PCR making their results useless for me as an interested outsider who wants to do some calculations. Hence I turn to excess all cause mortality as my main figure. I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself, so I take that into account. The main problem I have with the US data (z-scores) is that they dont include 2018 which had a serious flu going around killing a lot. The Euromomo data does show that 2018 flu spike of mortality. And that puts things in perspective.
- consp 6y ago
  Keep in mind the following: the flue spike was without any decent form of measures. We can do a lot to reduce those. Also note that while your anacdotal evidence is sad, it does not take into account that without those measures they might have been as badly off as well due to even more sick people being around at the same time. People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse.
  - cies 6y ago
    > the flue spike was without any decent form of measures I agree flu vaccines are worthless. :) > People easily blame measures but forget that the alternative might be even worse. Totally agree! But I'm just saying that the spike also contain collateral deaths (for lack of a better word). And yes it's totally anecdotal that I know two of those, and not know even one person who was even hospitalized from C19.
    - tialaramex 6y ago
      The effectiveness of seasonal Influenza vaccination depends on two things. First we have to guess which Influenza strains to vaccinate against, if we guess the wrong strains then it doesn't much matter that you're immune because you got a different strain anyway. Second the virus drifts even if we guess perfectly and it might evade the vaccine. When you get the jab, both these things are still hard or impossible to know, so as long as the side effects of vaccination remain very mild for almost everybody it's worth a shot (pun intended). Some years it works very well indeed. It's worth distinguishing between deaths due to measures imposed to manage the pandemic (which we could have hypothetically avoided by just allowing the pandemic to run its course, presumably killing millions more people) and those due to direct consequences of the pandemic which you can't avoid except by hypothesising "What if magically this virus didn't exist?". For example hospitals get overrun with patients and withdraw all but emergency care, resulting in excess deaths, but you can't wish that away. Or people are too scared of the virus to seek help so they die unnecessarily, again nowhere (except maybe China at the extreme?) told people "You must not leave your home to escape a violent partner" or "Don't call an ambulance if you have a heart attack, you might get infected" so those deaths aren't a result of a policy decision they're a consequence of the pandemic itself.
      - ceejayoz 6y ago
        There's a third thing: Not enough people take it.
- cycomanic 6y ago
  Well the interesting thing is that the Euromono data shows a similar trend as the US data, especially if including the 2018 data. The 15-44 year olds while essentially not affected by the 2018 flu did see a spike for covid. I think it would be interesting if the group could be further split up into 15-24 and 25-44 year olds, like the US data. Regarding the 2018 flu spike, putting things into perspective. I would say yes it does, because it shows how significantly bigger the spike for covid was/is.
  - cies 6y ago
    > significantly bigger In some cases. See the Euromomo z-index data per country. Some are unaffected by the flu and C19. Where flu kills tops 0.1% of a population, C19 seems to kill 0.8% at most.
- jinjin2 6y ago
  > I personally know 2 people that had their lives shortened by the measures instead of the virus itself If you look at the global rates of excess deaths: https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386938 https://www.ft.com/content/a2901ce8-5eb7-4633-b89c-cbdf5b386... (look under “Death rates”) It looks like the countries that had early and hard shutdowns (like Denmark and S. Korea), had almost zero excess deaths. Which at least to me seems to indicate that the shutdowns themselves have very low impact.
  - OnACoffeeBreak 6y ago
    I don't think we have the data to answer the question posed by the grandparent comment. Lifespans have likely been reduced by response to the pandemic. Those whose lifespans have been reduced are still alive and are not showing up in death statistics today. For example, my grandmother-in-law was selfsufficient before the pandemic. During the pandemic she pretty much stayed in her apartment which resulted in significant loss of mobility. We're not sure whether she'll regain her selfsufficiency, which will probably result in her dying sooner rather than later.
    - JimTheMan 6y ago
      That's very sad to here about your grandmother in law. I too definitely felt an impact of lockdown, it's not zero impact at all. However looking at other places in the world (not Australia) that had ineffective measures, it's like comparing certain death for a large swathe of the population vs reduced quality of life that many, but not all will recover from.
  - rimliu 6y ago
    We (Lithuania) had a very early and strict shutdow last year and fared wery well during the first wave. We are going into the fifth month of the very strict shutdown during the second wave and we have tons of excess deaths.

throwaway13337 6y ago

According to this, the percentage-wise deviation from normal range the last year has been worst for 25-44 year olds. Absolute number of deaths is, of course, higher for the elderly. But the relative change is biggest in that age group. That's a rather different narrative than I've heard. I wonder what could explain it? Secondary issues related to but not covid?

usr1106 6y ago
My explanation has been that many of the elderly who died from covid did not have much live expectation left because they had suffered multiple diseases already. So in excess deaths they don't show that big, even though there were many cases. But the 25-44 olds would still have decades left, so every death makes a greater impact on excess deaths of their age group. But my statistics math is on a very basic level...
- enkid 6y ago
  That's not what excess deaths mean. Excess deaths is number of deaths above previous years average. It has nothing to do with age, other than tracking who has died at what age.
  - rimliu 6y ago
    True, but it will be interesting to see if there is reduction of the excess deaths next year. A. k. a. The harvesting theory.
  - usr1106 6y ago
    So why would you not be able to categorize excess death into age groups? Last period 100 70 - 90 years old died. This period 110. If they died only a fraction of the period earlier, they would have shown up in the same category anyway with some probability. This period 5 20-40 years old died, this year 10 Normally they would have died decades later, so they would have not shown up in this category during the period. (Of course with small numbers statisical relevance decreases. But I have understood in countries with many covid deaths in elderly care excess deaths for high age categories did not increase that much over a year.) This would show a 10% increase in the older group, but a 50% increase in the younger group. Of course

thomasfromcdnjs 6y ago

I don't really get these excess death calculations. Surely just looking at the past 5 years is not enough. Wouldn't you at least have to take into account generations? (ageing populations) (So maybe 60 years of data?) The linked graphs could easily just represent an older generation dying off. (Even the humps could just be regular flu seasons for an ageing population) Then you have to choose a range for your generation 50-80 year olds etc If Covid kills a large proportion over 80, and your range for generations is 50-79, the data would be completely off yet again. There must be a lot more facets to take into consideration. I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing? It would be nice to put my money where my mouth is and actually just do my own study. But can't think of a country who would have reliable stats going back 60 years on death tallies. (Semi relevant paper on looking at ageing population stats -> https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/494025 https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/494025)

altacc 6y ago
Over 60 years you would have to account for the many other factors that also affected mortality, for example better healthcare. That would increase the statistical error and reduce the validity of the results. And it isn't really necessary as long as your baseline contains enough data to be able to prove statistically differences from your comparison groups. Generations are taken into account by splitting the results by age and not looking back too many years, as even with flu, cold winters, etc... life expectancy still changes slowly.
tumetab1 6y ago
> I feel like those graphs quite statistically weak. What am I missing? I think you're just missing the definition of "excess death", it's literally how much more deaths were registered against an average of the last years. It's just a basic indicator that indicates that something has happened and further investigation is required to clarify the reasons. If the "excess deaths" was raised because the "baby boomers" generation was dying off a further investigation would be required to identify that.
- thomasfromcdnjs 6y ago

bjourne 6y ago

Does anyone know where to find death statistics for the US for years prior to 2020? Apparently, 3,436,576 persons died in 2020, but what was the totals for 2010 to 2019?

galangalalgol 6y ago
The cdc fluview mortality page. You have to download it as csv, the web plots are flu and pnumonia eatimates. One interesting observation is that the extra deaths during the pandemic are only a third of the deaths attributed to covid. That implies that two thirds of the covid deaths would have been expected anyway last year without covid?
- labatyd 6y ago
  Above 70, the death rate starts to skyrocket naturally. This was also one of the highest risk groups for COVID. A lot of people who were likely to fall down and die or have a stroke/heart attack and never recover instead caught COVID and died a few months earlier. Remember to hug your parents/grandparents as life is short and none of us is promised tomorrow.
- nibsfive 6y ago
  That's accurate of other countries. Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero.
  - andybak 6y ago
    > Excess death outside of 75+ people who had a few more years left is zero. The data in this post seems to contradict that so you would need to specifically address that. The fact you said "zero" rather than some small amount gives me some doubt you are debating in good faith.
protomyth 6y ago
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cdc.gov%2Fnchs%2Fdeaths.htm https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/deaths.htm?CDC_AA_refVal=https... Is a good starting point. CDC is the keeper of those stats in the US.

phkahler 6y ago

I dont doubt Covid has caused a bunch of these deaths, particularly in the first wave. But it would be nice to break out suicides and overdoses, as mental health issues are on the rise as a result of lockdowns and the economic fallout.

londons_explore 6y ago
The fact that the 0-24 age range (typically dominated by car accidents and suicides) doesn't see much change suggests that the effect you are suggesting is small or nonexistent.
- tremon 6y ago
  Your argument doesn't prove that. Using that logic, given that we (collectively) make much fewer car miles due to the lockdowns, we should see a downward change in that age range. Since we don't see a change, that may mean that suicides are on the rise, offsetting the reduction in traffic fatalities.
Taniwha 6y ago
Here in NZ during our much harsher, but only 6 weeks, lockdown we had a small number of covid deaths, but they were eclipsed by the drop in the road toll - thru 2020 the almost lack of a flu season due to the covid precautions meant a further drop in the annual death rate.
- tantalor 6y ago
  "road toll"? Is that an idiom or do you mean fees charged to drivers?
  - ceejayoz 6y ago
    "The death toll incurred by driving on roads".
    - 6y ago

sega_sai 6y ago

And here is the excess mortality data for all countries https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/main/img/all-countries.png https://raw.githubusercontent.com/dkobak/excess-mortality/ma... from https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality https://github.com/dkobak/excess-mortality

ArkanExplorer 6y ago

Does anyone have a list of all countries with annual deaths in 2020, vs prior years for the past decade? Surely the best way to examine the true impact of COVID is to understand the raw death figures, particularly if there were factors such as weak 2019 flu seasons/deaths which may have contributed to mortality displacement?

labatyd 6y ago
The quality and trustworthiness of that data will vary from very high to we know for a fact its made up.
ciceryadam 6y ago
A journalist in Slovakia did a comparison of current weekly deaths vs extreme values for 2000-2019: https://dennikn.sk/2304197/prehliadli-sme-mozno-az-styritisic-obeti-pandemie-ukazuju-nadmerne-umrtia-zda-sa-ze-vrchol-mame-za-sebou/ https://dennikn.sk/2304197/prehliadli-sme-mozno-az-styritisi... - the grey dotted dash line is the extreme values for the last 2 decades, red line is the current deaths, black dotted dash line is the threshold of standard deviation. The most extreme value in the last 2 decades was 1411 deaths per week, last week of 2020 had 2059 deaths per week.
- ArkanExplorer 6y ago
  These weekly death stats are not useful because if no one dies in week 1, but everyone dies instead in week 2 (plus those who would have died anyway in week 2), it will show week 2 as being catastrophic, and everyone will just ignore week 1. We need the raw annual data which basically removes this noise.
  - mrow84 6y ago
    If you look at the chart the death in 2020/2021 are well outside the extremal values for the previous two decades, and the "mass" contained there is much larger than the cumulative discrepancies for earlier in 2020. At that level of signal I don't think the weekly data can be dismissed as not useful.