4 ms·

Flu has an R0 of about 1.3, Rhinovirus has an R0 of around 2.7, and Covid is estimated to have an R0 of 2.7 or higher. So it makes sense that the measures we ha

Flu has an R0 of about 1.3, Rhinovirus has an R0 of around 2.7, and Covid is estimated to have an R0 of 2.7 or higher. So it makes sense that the measures we have taken have stopped the flu but not stopped covid or rhinovirus. Sources: https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-flu-facts-and-figures/ https://www.qps.com/2020/10/05/covid-19-versus-the-seasonal-... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2468042718300071 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246804271... https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891 https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1891

timr 6y ago
You are leaning way too hard on point estimates of R0. The way people estimate R0 is noisy, and the error bars on these estimates are significant. It's fairly pointless to take any two papers and compare the values as if they're precise. This literature review has estimates of R0 for flu running from 1.06-3.4, and rhinovirus running from 1.2-1.83: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v... Given the uncertainties involved, these ranges are effectively identical, with flu maybe being a bit more contagious.
- deleted 6y ago
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- codeulike 6y ago
  OK I've got a better idea: In the particular conditions we created in 2020, the Rhinovirus was better able to spread than the Flu. Why? Because people were on the lookout for fever (and other things like continuous cough etc). Flu causes fever, and anyone who got a fever and was sensibly-minded would self isolate at least for a few days until they got test results or until symptoms abated. Whereas Rhinovirus is much less likely to cause a fever, so people twig that they've 'just got a cold' and carry on going about their day. Especially for schoolkids - if they've got a fever, they're kept at home. If they've just got a snotty nose then they're likely to still go to school. So Rhiniovirus was able to fly under the radar whereas Flu wasn't.
  - timr 6y ago
    Could be. Covid is certainly more flu-like than rhinovirus-like. Kids were also not in school, and kids are historically a big spreader of influenza. I generally think people look for "fancy" explanations for the trends, when simpler explanations (i.e. people weren't going to the doctor) work just as well.

timr 6y ago

You are leaning way too hard on point estimates of R0. The way people estimate R0 is noisy, and the error bars on these estimates are significant. It's fairly pointless to take any two papers and compare the values as if they're precise. This literature review has estimates of R0 for flu running from 1.06-3.4, and rhinovirus running from 1.2-1.83: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020404v... Given the uncertainties involved, these ranges are effectively identical, with flu maybe being a bit more contagious.

deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
codeulike 6y ago
OK I've got a better idea: In the particular conditions we created in 2020, the Rhinovirus was better able to spread than the Flu. Why? Because people were on the lookout for fever (and other things like continuous cough etc). Flu causes fever, and anyone who got a fever and was sensibly-minded would self isolate at least for a few days until they got test results or until symptoms abated. Whereas Rhinovirus is much less likely to cause a fever, so people twig that they've 'just got a cold' and carry on going about their day. Especially for schoolkids - if they've got a fever, they're kept at home. If they've just got a snotty nose then they're likely to still go to school. So Rhiniovirus was able to fly under the radar whereas Flu wasn't.
- timr 6y ago
  Could be. Covid is certainly more flu-like than rhinovirus-like. Kids were also not in school, and kids are historically a big spreader of influenza. I generally think people look for "fancy" explanations for the trends, when simpler explanations (i.e. people weren't going to the doctor) work just as well.