6 ms·

This reads more like consultants writing their FUD into a press release than actual news. I know that people and companies invested heavily in real estate are d

This reads more like consultants writing their FUD into a press release than actual news. I know that people and companies invested heavily in real estate are disappointed by this, but no amount of astroturfing is going to re-create the world of 2019. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm business labor productivity rose by over 10% over the course of 2020, despite the fact that most of us are working from home. (Source: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf) Companies that want to waste huge sums of money on offices are going to have to compete with companies that don't abuse their employees, doing the same thing for less. We're obviously not going back to how things were before.

marcus_holmes 6y ago
Yeah, but they're surveying CEO's. CEO's want all the little people back in the office so they can have their minions back.
- trhway 6y ago
  You look at a multi-day Slack discussion with big architects and PMs without any progress... In the old days it would be a series of important meetings where those important people would be making important face and saying important sounding words. There would still be no progress, yet there would be the feeling like the progress is being made. Slack makes it so obvious. We're definitely going back to offices :)
  - helge9210 6y ago
    > You look at a multi-day Slack discussion with big architects and PMs without any progress... This. Written communication makes it obvious that some people have nothing meaningful to say it have trouble with reading comprehension.
- trhway 6y ago
  and even more important aspect - without offices there isn't jet-setting across the world nor fat expense accounts. The only thing left for CEOs and all the other execs is to actually do their job which is their least favorite activity and which they usually are hardly capable at performing.
- goatinaboat 6y ago
  CEO's want all the little people back in the office so they can have their minions back. Management have no idea as noted here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26547499 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26547499
bhupy 6y ago
> According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm business labor productivity rose by over 10% over the course of 2020, despite the fact that most of us are working from home. I’d push back on this claim with another piece of relevant data: employee mental health has plunged [1][2]. While it’s true that productivity has increased, it’s not obvious that this is sustainable. [1] https://www.hibob.com/blog/covid-19-employee-wellness-survey/ https://www.hibob.com/blog/covid-19-employee-wellness-survey... [2] https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/both-remote-and-on-site-workers-are-grappling-with-serious-mental-health-consequences-of-covid-19/ https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/both-remote-and-on-site-wor...
- cl0ckt0wer 6y ago
  So employers get a productivity boost and cost savings if they sacrifice their employee's mental health? I'd love to believe we live in a world where that would stop them.
  - bhupy 6y ago
    I mean, the technology industry (especially FAANG) aren’t exactly known for sacrificing long-term growth for the sake of short-term penny-pinching in the context of employee happiness. Any company that (pre-COVID) had a proclivity to sacrifice short-term profits by providing free food and other generous onsite perks is probably also a company that might choose to scrap plans to cut back on offices if doing so has a positive impact on their employees’ mental health.
- daggerdrone 6y ago
  Also, it is possible that employees were putting in extra effort so that they won't be one getting laid off in case their company decides to do a layoff. It was a scary environment in the beginning with a layoff being announced almost every day.
- jsight 6y ago
  I'm not sure that I'd correlate remote work with that during a year like this last one.
- 6y ago
wbl 6y ago
The productivity numbers, unlike inflation, don't compensate for basket shifts. So if people stop putting on low productivity things like plays productivity rises but it isn't real.
fractionalhare 6y ago
Your cited source also shows 10.9% more hours worked and only 0.8% more hourly compensation (and -1.6% real compensation) comparing Q4 2019 to Q4 2020. Does the data show whether people are more productive because they are happier living more flexible lives at home, or because they simply have worse work life balance? Does it show whether these changes are roughly homogenous, or if there are pockets swinging up (down) the mean hours worked (compensation)? What's the variance? You can levy a dozen counterfactuals at the use of BLS data like this to support permanent WFH. The analysis needs to be way more holistic and BLS figures aren't nuanced enough.
pxue 6y ago
There arent any real study on work place transition, productivity, and overall AVERAGE health of employees had been conducted. Even on the smallest scale of sample size, I thrived during the work from home year, yet my SO can't wait to get back to office work where they can socialize with coworkers face to face. Any call for either OR are dramatically overweightted.
canada_dry 6y ago
It reminds me of how large suit retailers funded "research" regarding 'casual Fridays'. According to them it was just a fad that would soon die. Companies that were quick to embrace open concept office space and cubicles to save expenses are surely going to take advantage of this new paradigm.
justapassenger 6y ago
It’s not most trustworthy when you accuse someone of lying and then proceeded to cherry pick single statistic, that’s not even from carefully controlled study designed to answer those questions.
mcclung 6y ago
First thing I thought was "press hit." (http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html) I've been expecting that certain groups (people who own commercial real estate, for example), were going to want to us all back in our cubicles. Not sure I'm right, of course, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of years.
twelve40 6y ago
One question though. Tools to work fully remote have been around for at least 20 years now. Want to work from Montana in 2001? Webex, messengers, version control, DSL internet, everything has been there for decades. We also have precedents of major projects (say, open source) shipped by distributed teams since that long, too. Yet, pre-Covid very, very few companies have actually figured out remote. Why? Is it because companies are slow and stupid? Google doesn't seem stupid. Why have they been paying $500k comp in the Bay Area all this time when Tennessee or India were right there all along? Maybe they took special pleasure in pointlessly overpaying and abusing their employees, as you call it?
- goatinaboat 6y ago
  Tools to work fully remote have been around for at least 20 years now. Want to work from Montana in 2001? Longer. Guy I know was perfectly happily WFH running X11 over dual-bonded ISDN a decade before that!
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- helge9210 6y ago
  > Want to work from Montana in 2001? Webex, messengers, version control, DSL internet, everything has been there for decades I started WFH the moment DSL became available in my area in 2003. Was switching to WFH at every work place over commute became unbearable.
- matwood 6y ago
  I think it's hard to use FAANGs for general trends like this. Google for example in part hires people to keep them from going elsewhere or building a competing company. One of Google's big perks to lure these people is all of the onsite amenities. Google and the other big tech companies are unique in a lot of ways, and in no way represent the average company in the US or even in tech though. What will be interesting is if WFH (I like to say Freedom of Work) continues to take hold, will companies like Google have to adjust or be ok missing out on employees?

marcus_holmes 6y ago

Yeah, but they're surveying CEO's. CEO's want all the little people back in the office so they can have their minions back.

trhway 6y ago
You look at a multi-day Slack discussion with big architects and PMs without any progress... In the old days it would be a series of important meetings where those important people would be making important face and saying important sounding words. There would still be no progress, yet there would be the feeling like the progress is being made. Slack makes it so obvious. We're definitely going back to offices :)
- helge9210 6y ago
  > You look at a multi-day Slack discussion with big architects and PMs without any progress... This. Written communication makes it obvious that some people have nothing meaningful to say it have trouble with reading comprehension.
trhway 6y ago
and even more important aspect - without offices there isn't jet-setting across the world nor fat expense accounts. The only thing left for CEOs and all the other execs is to actually do their job which is their least favorite activity and which they usually are hardly capable at performing.
goatinaboat 6y ago
CEO's want all the little people back in the office so they can have their minions back. Management have no idea as noted here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26547499 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26547499

bhupy 6y ago

> According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm business labor productivity rose by over 10% over the course of 2020, despite the fact that most of us are working from home. I’d push back on this claim with another piece of relevant data: employee mental health has plunged [1][2]. While it’s true that productivity has increased, it’s not obvious that this is sustainable. [1] https://www.hibob.com/blog/covid-19-employee-wellness-survey/ https://www.hibob.com/blog/covid-19-employee-wellness-survey... [2] https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/both-remote-and-on-site-workers-are-grappling-with-serious-mental-health-consequences-of-covid-19/ https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/both-remote-and-on-site-wor...

cl0ckt0wer 6y ago
So employers get a productivity boost and cost savings if they sacrifice their employee's mental health? I'd love to believe we live in a world where that would stop them.
- bhupy 6y ago
  I mean, the technology industry (especially FAANG) aren’t exactly known for sacrificing long-term growth for the sake of short-term penny-pinching in the context of employee happiness. Any company that (pre-COVID) had a proclivity to sacrifice short-term profits by providing free food and other generous onsite perks is probably also a company that might choose to scrap plans to cut back on offices if doing so has a positive impact on their employees’ mental health.
daggerdrone 6y ago
Also, it is possible that employees were putting in extra effort so that they won't be one getting laid off in case their company decides to do a layoff. It was a scary environment in the beginning with a layoff being announced almost every day.
jsight 6y ago
I'm not sure that I'd correlate remote work with that during a year like this last one.
6y ago

wbl 6y ago

The productivity numbers, unlike inflation, don't compensate for basket shifts. So if people stop putting on low productivity things like plays productivity rises but it isn't real.

fractionalhare 6y ago

Your cited source also shows 10.9% more hours worked and only 0.8% more hourly compensation (and -1.6% real compensation) comparing Q4 2019 to Q4 2020. Does the data show whether people are more productive because they are happier living more flexible lives at home, or because they simply have worse work life balance? Does it show whether these changes are roughly homogenous, or if there are pockets swinging up (down) the mean hours worked (compensation)? What's the variance? You can levy a dozen counterfactuals at the use of BLS data like this to support permanent WFH. The analysis needs to be way more holistic and BLS figures aren't nuanced enough.

pxue 6y ago

There arent any real study on work place transition, productivity, and overall AVERAGE health of employees had been conducted. Even on the smallest scale of sample size, I thrived during the work from home year, yet my SO can't wait to get back to office work where they can socialize with coworkers face to face. Any call for either OR are dramatically overweightted.

canada_dry 6y ago

It reminds me of how large suit retailers funded "research" regarding 'casual Fridays'. According to them it was just a fad that would soon die. Companies that were quick to embrace open concept office space and cubicles to save expenses are surely going to take advantage of this new paradigm.

justapassenger 6y ago

It’s not most trustworthy when you accuse someone of lying and then proceeded to cherry pick single statistic, that’s not even from carefully controlled study designed to answer those questions.

mcclung 6y ago

First thing I thought was "press hit." (http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html http://www.paulgraham.com/submarine.html) I've been expecting that certain groups (people who own commercial real estate, for example), were going to want to us all back in our cubicles. Not sure I'm right, of course, but it'll be interesting to see how this plays out over the next couple of years.

twelve40 6y ago

One question though. Tools to work fully remote have been around for at least 20 years now. Want to work from Montana in 2001? Webex, messengers, version control, DSL internet, everything has been there for decades. We also have precedents of major projects (say, open source) shipped by distributed teams since that long, too. Yet, pre-Covid very, very few companies have actually figured out remote. Why? Is it because companies are slow and stupid? Google doesn't seem stupid. Why have they been paying $500k comp in the Bay Area all this time when Tennessee or India were right there all along? Maybe they took special pleasure in pointlessly overpaying and abusing their employees, as you call it?

goatinaboat 6y ago
Tools to work fully remote have been around for at least 20 years now. Want to work from Montana in 2001? Longer. Guy I know was perfectly happily WFH running X11 over dual-bonded ISDN a decade before that!
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
helge9210 6y ago
> Want to work from Montana in 2001? Webex, messengers, version control, DSL internet, everything has been there for decades I started WFH the moment DSL became available in my area in 2003. Was switching to WFH at every work place over commute became unbearable.
matwood 6y ago
I think it's hard to use FAANGs for general trends like this. Google for example in part hires people to keep them from going elsewhere or building a competing company. One of Google's big perks to lure these people is all of the onsite amenities. Google and the other big tech companies are unique in a lot of ways, and in no way represent the average company in the US or even in tech though. What will be interesting is if WFH (I like to say Freedom of Work) continues to take hold, will companies like Google have to adjust or be ok missing out on employees?