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VW brand joins Audi in ending combustion engine development

145 points by reddotX 6y ago

arethuza 6y ago
This just sounds like VW Group have made a strategic decision to stop ICE development and they are letting each subsidiary announce it separately. Perhaps Porsche, Bugatti and Lamborghini will take longest to admit it? Edit: VW Group already has a huge range of petrol engines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_petrol_engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_petro...
- moooo99 6y ago
  VW already has a huge range of ICEs in their portfolio which are shared among their subsidiaries, especially VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda. Even if they all stop ICE development now, they have probably 5+ years until their engines would be out of date, so it makes absolute sense to shift their development focus to electronic drivetrains and use the products you already have on hand.
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Certainly a better option to spend money in short term. While there is very little one can improve about electric drivetrain, because even a highschooler can make a 90% efficient one, acing the manufacturing still needs huge "experience cost."
    - moooo99 6y ago
      While an electric drivetrain is relatively simple at its concept, the challenges usually arise when you plan on building millions of that presumably simple drive train. I work at a bit automative supplier and see the thought that is required for building a seemingly simple component on a huge scale while ensuring high quality and safety. Designing the product is one thing, but designing it in a way where it can be built efficiently and mets a certain quality standard is where it gets difficult. And that is exactly the part where Tesla is struggling and where VW can make an investment that has a significant impact.
- oblio 6y ago
  Well, it's a huge decision and my guess is that they want to have as much exposure as they can get from this decision. They're the world's second largest automaker (and they tend to switch places with the first one, Toyota, periodically): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#By_manufacturer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#By_manufac... And they've just announced they're going to invest $86 bn in electric vehicles over the next 5 years: https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-strategy-idUSKBN27T24O https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-strategy-idUSKBN2... They've just launched a modular electric platform that will probably be used in tens if not hundreds of new models (in the US only VW ID.4 has been launched so far).
  - agumonkey 6y ago
    I wonder how much improvements EV will see now that capitals are going into it hard. Beside economy of scale.. really new battery chemistry, induction motor efficiency etc
    - oblio 6y ago
      Motors? Probably not much, their theoretical efficiency is super high and the practical one is reasonably close. Batteries chemistry, battery management through software are the main targets. To really beat ICEs we need something like 15-20% more battery capacity per weight and per volume (so both smaller and lighter batteries), faster charging, more charging cycles, less battery capacity loss over time, in about this order. And at least half this capital should go into infrastructure, in my opinion, primarily charging, better/smarter grid.
      - kube-system 6y ago
        Infrastructure is the most important part, IMO. For widespread adoption, EV charging will have to be just as convenient as gas vehicles. They've gotten a lot better in recent years, but there's still a lot of holes.
        anonymfus 6y ago
- _fat_santa 6y ago
  Yeah, this title makes it sound like they are different entities. Audi is under the VW group, basically the same company, with different branding and product offering. > Perhaps Porsche, Bugatti and Lamborghini will take longest to admit it? Porsche will be the first, as they have the Taycan, the platform is already being exported to Audi and (my guess) will be the basis of a next gen Lamborghini. Bugatti is in a completely different plane of existence though. I'm not sure what will happen with Bugatti but I'm almost certain they will be sold. As a small volume manufacturer they should still be able to keep producing ICE engines. Their 16.4L W16 is practically a work of art. And because they are that special, it will be easiest for Bugatti to divorce from VW Group.
  - r00t4ccess 6y ago
    Porsche keeps saying the 911 will never be electric so they are just making new cars to be electric.
    - firecall 6y ago
      It’s odd they say that. You’d think that at some point ICE will be no more, and then what? Porsche kill the 911 brand? Doesn’t seem likely. I’ve owned a couple of 911s and I’d happily own an electric one!
      - kwhitefoot 6y ago
        It already exists, though not from Porsche: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs
      - Zigurd 6y ago
        An electric 911 would not still be a 911. The 911 is defined by engine placement and configuration. I think they are acknowledging that their customers would regard an electric 911 as a travesty.
        oblio 6y ago
- nashashmi 6y ago
  They should open up the patents. And let other engine developers take advantage of their developments this far.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Very bad for Formuna-* races I guess. VW was bankrolling engine development for a big portion of Formulas race teams.
  - Shivetya 6y ago
    Racing will move on to new technologies and hopefully drive development that enters the mainstream just as it does today for combustion engines
    - baybal2 6y ago
      Electric powertrain is boring. You get 98.5% efficient electric motor with any amount of torque you want. Or you get another 98.5% efficient electric motor with any amount of torque you want. That's about all differentiating features.
      - bayindirh 6y ago
        > Electric powertrain is boring. Tell this to Formula-e teams which found out that even a 1.5 degree difference in magnet placement can effect performance characteristics of motors tremendously. Similarly, thermal management of the same motors change their power characteristics enormously. They're trying to simulate and optimize these things in that boring cable spaghetti.
        rad_gruchalski 6y ago
        Good luck entering a 24h race with an ev. Hydrogen is definitely a better platform for that.
        bayindirh 6y ago
        If there's something I learnt over the years about any technology is making big claims about any technology is very risky. A small invention/progress/optimization would change everything about that technology. I'd rather have my popcorn and watch the competition.
- sgt 6y ago
  Probably a technicality, but Porsche actually owns VW Group, which again owns Porsche cars, Audi etc
  - arethuza 6y ago
    Isn't that a different Porsche company though? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche The latter is a 100% owned subsidiary of VW AG which has Porsche SE as the largest shareholder? i.e. Porsche the company that makes the cars is a subsidiary of VW Group which is then partially owned by Porsche SE which is a holding company.
    - sgt 6y ago
      Yeah, but the "true" Porsche, if you will.
- odiroot 6y ago
  I heard in Handelsblatt's podcast a few weeks ago that new Porsche CEO (?) was already planning for it. They're thinking how to introduce "wow factor" to electric cars. They don't want to be just another Tesla. Apparently Porsche was always about being "exclusive".
- jillesvangurp 6y ago
  The writing is on the wall. Most manufacturers are at this point actively milking their sunk investment in ICE for as long as they can while simultaneously developing their EV strategy without killing their ICE strategy. A few have woken up to the notion that this is a losing strategy and that they need to go all in on EV. Basically the market is split between compliance vehicles, limited production EVs also available in ICE or hybrid configuration, or 100% EV only cars. The latter tend to have superior cost margins, performance, etc. VW basically is doing the latter and is now announcing the status quo that, yes, VW/Audi/Porsche ICE development is dead as a door nail. Porsche sales are already dominated by their EV sales and growing quite nicely. I think the Audi eTron is also considered a success at this point. In Germany, an added dimension is that the unions are waking up to the notion that their companies need to change in order for their members to stay employed. Anyone employed in ICE production lines is worrying about when (not if) they will be layed off. There seem to be regular announcements from all German manufacturers about layoff rounds. So, this is very real for them. VW has been converting factories to battery and EV production over the last years and they are ramping up volume production to probably surpass Tesla pretty soon in terms of volume sales. Considering the ID.3 only launched summer last year, that's impressive. I think BMW and Daimler are getting worried about their position in the market at this point (or at least they should be). So, unions understandably want to see realistic plans for the future from these companies. As opposed to e.g. BMW waffling about hybrids as "the future" so they don't have to talk about not having a lot of EV production or a plan for fixing that.
  - lagadu 6y ago
    > Porsche sales are already dominated by their EV sales and growing quite nicely. Source on this? Because in 2020 the Taycan line sold less than the 718, 911 and Cayenne lines[0]. [0]https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/company/porsche-deliveries-2020-worldwide-23368.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/company/porsche-deliver...
    - jillesvangurp 6y ago
      I was talking about their growth more than absolute volume. VW also still has a lot of legacy sales. And of course they will need that for a while. But their growth is coming from EVs.
blunte 6y ago
I’m pleased with this, but it does remind me of Red Barchetta by Rush.
- mtmail 6y ago
  I looked it up "The song's lyrics tell a story set in a future in which many classes of vehicles have been banned by a "Motor Law."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Barchetta https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Barchetta
  - oblio 6y ago
    This has been happening for almost 3 decades: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards Hardly super visionary :-)
    - Corrado 6y ago
      >Hardly super visionary :-) I don't know about that. Red Barchetta was written in 1981 and that law didn't arrive until 1992. 10 years seems pretty visionary to me. :)
loremipsium 6y ago
first scrapping old but reliable cars with cash incentives to buy "clean" diesel. Then dieselgate pushing for gasoline powered cars and getting pennies on the dollar back. Now killing ICE alltogether. Not going to buy VW Group cars anytime soon.
- oblio 6y ago
  > Now killing ICE all together. The writing is on the wall. In Europe several big cities as well as countries have announced that they'll ban diesel engines in about 10 years, max. Some have announced that they'll ban all ICE cars in about 15-20 years.
  - patrickk 6y ago
    Even bigger than the city by city ban is the huge, and ever more demanding EU commission fines on car makers, measured by grams of CO2 averaged across the fleet. So what's happening is VW is trying to get ahead of the enormous fines which will make it impossible to keep selling larger sized ICE cars in the EU (e.g. SUVs which are becoming ever more popular in Europe). > According to the EU, fleet emissions in 2018 were 120g/km, which means automakers need a 21 percent reduction overall to avoid fines that could total as much as 33 billion euros this year, according to some estimates. Each gram over the limit, per vehicle, will cost automakers 95 euros. > Each automaker has a different target, based on the average mass of the vehicles they sell, and only 95 percent of sales are measured in 2020, meaning that some high-polluting cars won't count. Even so, analyst ISI Evercore has warned that the "2020-21 CO2 regulation poses the biggest risk to the auto industry in recent memory." Source: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/how-automakers-plan-avoid-co2-fines-europe https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/how-automakers-plan-a... EDIT: Some countries, e.g. Ireland[1] and the UK[2], have decided to ban all new ICE cars completely from 2030. [1] https://www.newstalk.com/news/electric-vehicle-ownership-should-be-looked-at-from-an-equity-point-of-view-says-expert-1117366 https://www.newstalk.com/news/electric-vehicle-ownership-sho... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/the-uk-plans-to-ban-sales-of-diesel-and-petrol-cars-from-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/the-uk-plans-to-ban-sales-of...
  - IneffablePigeon 6y ago
mberning 6y ago
They said development. Not production or sales. Truth be told all the low hanging fruit with combustion engines was gobbled up back in the 80s and 90s with the advent of EFI. Since then it has been diminishing returns. The engines of today are about as clean as they could be without an insane amount of additional development. These manufacturers will be happy to keep selling their current ICE engines for years to come and devote the lions share of their R&D budgets to electrification efforts.
- prox 6y ago
  A lot of work in this field afaik is about finding new materials or using more common materials to do the same thing. Getting more R&D in this field early is definitely worth the pay off, and the right time as well.
apercu 6y ago
On one hand I'm sorry to see the tooling and expertise disappear. But perhaps it's (long past) time?
- s_dev 6y ago
  It hasn't disappered -- it will be preserved because it's important. The tooling will exist in automotive museums and the expertise will reside in engineering historians and engineering academics -- the first tractor engines are generally still the learning tools for many undergrads. That knowledge just shifts from working proffessionals to another group in society.
  - Kinrany 6y ago
    Why is it important? Where would the incentive come from? Who would be actually interested in still being able to invent new engines?
Theodores 6y ago
The wording of the article title gives the impression that they will stick with the engines they have got. Really they are just going to develop the engines they have and not design from scratch any new engines. A new engine from scratch rarely happens. Many engines can be traced back decades with there never being a new design, just iterative improvement. Can anyone think of a new engine developed from scratch? Without any parts carried over? I suppose this happened when VW built the Veyron.
- Mauricebranagh 6y ago
  In the 1980's when I was in college one of GM's main engines in the UK was basically a 1930's design (updated slightly over the years).
- valuearb 6y ago
  Yea this title is total click bait.
- RickHull 6y ago
  The VR6 from VW was introduced in 1991. I'm sure you can point to lineage with earlier designs, but it's a unique design. The Freevalve design from Koenigsegg also comes to mind.
dmitriid 6y ago
Grain of salt and all that: > In an exclusive interview, brand CEO Ralf Brandstätter said, “At the moment, I do not expect a completely new engine family to be launched.” Still, he wants to develop the engines currently in use and prepare them for new emissions standards such as Euro 7 So no, they are not ending ICE development. They continue development. As to what "a new family of ICE" means is anyone's guess. An, of course, this: > Depending on which regulations are ultimately applied, the outlook for internal combustion engines could change dramatically once again So, ending, but not really ending, and the outlook may change again.
- oblio 6y ago
  ICE families/generations are quite well defined if you follow automotive news.
- kube-system 6y ago
  > As to what "a new family of ICE" means is anyone's guess. It's exactly what he said. Modern engine-families are typically developed as somewhat of a modular platform. Then, there are several or even dozens of variations of that platform for various needs, some with different emissions accessories, some with varying displacements, compression ratios, valve/spark timings, etc. For a tech analogy: it's similar to how CPU manufacturers design a core architecture and then give you varying numbers of cores, cache, thermal designs, feature sets, etc.
- barkingcat 6y ago
  "a new family of ICE" is not as confusing as you might think. Automotive engines have clearly defined generations and families of development. You can think of "new family of ICE" as the equivalent of processor instruction sets. A common "new family of instruction sets" would be something like the development of the AMD x86-64 64 bit instruction sets on top of the original 32 bit x86 set. A smaller "subfamily" or "development" can mean the addition of a new family of SIMD or something like AVX512, etc. However, the processor family is still an offshoot of x86 then x86-64, etc. In car automotive engines, it's exactly the same process. An ICE engine family can be in use for well over 20 years undergoing iterative improvements. VW will not continue to push the automotive equivalent of developing new instruction sets for the x64 processor. postmark: some examples of past "families of development" in internal combustion engines: carburator -> fuel injection; development of the supercharger and turbocharger, and making engines strong enough to withstand pressures from undergoing forced induction; hybridization - adding a battery to the drive train; etc All of these would be seen as major "ICE new families" - and for example in the VW and Audi world, you would see "families" of engines that would have, for example, a turbo on the engine in a particular model year, vs naturally aspirated only from the past model year car, etc. In VW, one major family is the VR6 - it's an innovation specific and proprietary to VW alone, and it's been around since 1991, and still in production - you see them still on new generation VW Atlas as a base engine option - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VR6_engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VR6_engine - that's a 30 year run for an "engine family". The Bugatti Veyron uses 2 VR8 bolted together to make a W16 engine - this is the same VR engine family technology taken to the extreme edges of performance. VW will no longer develop another internal combustion engine family in the way they kick started the "VR6" project back in the 90's.
innagadadavida 6y ago
Are there any large companies considering doing a turbine electric hybrid? Plain turbine cars were actually done 50 years ago and Jay Leno’s garage has one and he’s actually built one. Even one of Tesla’s co-founder (Ian Wright) has a startup doing this. One advantage is that it can burn any fuel - hydrogen included. This can be practical for larger vehicles especially.
rurban 6y ago
That would be news to me that VW actually had any engine in development by themselves. Last thing I heard were small customizations in their racing department. Before they could announce ending any engine development, wouldn't they need to start one before?
nabla9 6y ago
What's going on? Volkswagen AG (VOW) +199% in 12 month, +10,91% today. Porsche (PAH3) +177,86% in 12 month, +8,50% today.
- oblio 6y ago
  They've announced huge EV plans. Like "bet the farm" plans. In US it's not as visible because of Musk's Reality Distortion Field.
- durnygbur 6y ago
  DACH countries are jelous of Tesla. Soon even children in post-Communist countries will be forced to work for German automotive industry, skipping any education. No other opportunities will be available. (Meantime MS, G, and Big Four salesfolks are hysterical to sell them "The Cloud")
- arethuza 6y ago
  Worth noting that PAH3 appears to be Porsche SE - the holdings company that is the largest shareholder in VOW, not the Porsche company that makes the cars - which is 100% owned by Volkswagen AG (VOW). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE
- ike77 6y ago
  COVID... They are "only" up 27% from 14 month ago.
- vishnugupta 6y ago
  Yeah, there's a chance VW are playing this to the market. As a commenter opined in another thread; new engines are rarely developed anyway and they stated that they will continue to iterate over current set of engines. Note that there's no word about VW's EV plans besides this line "None of the executives specified a definite date for when they would exclusively produce electric vehicles". There's also this line "Completely new engines were unlikely, he said.". Seems like a planted PR piece by VW to further fuel the stock price momentum.
bookmarkable 6y ago
I'm a Tesla fan and love "electro-mods" - classics outfitted with battery packs - but this seems premature to me. There is 100 years of knowledge of these engines and moving to battery tech does not require quitting ICE entirely.
- capableweb 6y ago
  A cursory glance at the article would reveal that they are not completely ending the development either, only development of new "engine families". > "At the moment, I do not expect a completely new engine family to be launched." Still, he wants to develop the engines currently in use and prepare them for new emissions standards such as Euro 7
- oblio 6y ago
  What did you think was going to happen, though? :-) If EVs become good enough, investing in ICE at previous levels is unsustainable. Plus we have a ton of cool tech that's barely used today (steam engines, for examples). That's why we have museums.
  - mbrodersen 6y ago
    Steam turbines are used everywhere today. Inside power plants, nuclear submarines etc. etc.
- Retric 6y ago
  They will still use ICE and do ICE R&D. “Further developments of the existing units” will continue.
matthewfelgate 6y ago
I'm a big fan of electrics cars, but maybe the demise of the ICE is greatly exaggerated? I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time.
- pornel 6y ago
  Even if all ICE production stopped today, we'd have existing cars on the roads for a while. As EV production ramps up, they should get cheaper due to economies of scale and the technology maturing. Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful, but that's also a chicken-egg problem that will solve itself. EVs already have significantly lower per-mile cost, so it's only the initial cost that's higher. I think we're not far off from the initial cost falling low enough that it won't make sense to buy new ICE, and then adoption will accelerate rapidly. Look at smartphones. There was a time when they were expensive toys and almost nobody had them, until they reached a tipping point.
  - cptskippy 6y ago
    > Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful In what sense?
- bryanlarsen 6y ago
  You're already wrong. Electric cars already dominate the sub-$5000 car market in China.
  - ike77 6y ago
    But China's sub-$5000 cars are far from western safety standard They are even far from Chinese ones, but the government is looking in another direction to give the time to the industry to ramp up. And Chinese EVs that are up to safety standards are not cheap. So I'm not sure your comparison is valid.
- srg0 6y ago
  > I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time. Various reports estimate electric vehicle cost parity to be achieved around 2025 for small cars, and around 2028 for SUVs (source: theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV_cost_2020_2030_20190401.pdf) Used ICE cars will probably remain a cheaper option for another 10 years.
mymythisisthis 6y ago
China will produce most of the ICE vehicles. VW will simply buy a Chinese company, and hide behind a new 'brand'. It's cheaper to make things in China, ICE engines haven't changed much in two decades. Also, ICE engines aren't going anywhere, it'll just be too hard to make money building them, as China ramps up production. Much like N.America lost out to Japanese cars in the 1980s, now they'll lose out to Chinese ones.
- MagnumOpus 6y ago
  Automotive tariffs are literally made to prevent exactly that. And shipping costs for 2-tonne hunks of steel are substantial enough, far more so than for consumer electronics.
marcodiego 6y ago
An electric motor is way simpler than an ICE. Even controlling it electronically to increase its performance, efficiency and response should be easily doable with simple MCU's. There's no reason we should accept electric cars with complex computers running complex unfixable proprietary software that only the vendor has access to the source code and is updated over-the-air without owner's consenting. Cars may become the next walled garden.
- chrisseaton 6y ago
  > There's no reason we should accept electric cars with complex computers running complex unfixable proprietary software that only the vendor has access to the source code and is updated over-the-air without owner's consenting. All the other systems in the car require sophisticated integrated computers and sensors - automatic breaking, cruise control, speed limiting, suspension management - it's not just about the motors. I'm not sure there's any way to put the genie back in the bottle?
  - zelon88 6y ago
    There totally is. All of those sensors are pretty standard fair. If someone made an open source control unit that allowed a technician to calibrate these sensors there is no reason they cannot be universal. Or at least plug and play to a certain extent. Look at a MAF sensor: it's just a heating element and a temperature probe. If you could calibrate the resistance of the heating element to known temperature; the sensors themselves all behave the same. Electric motors are a little different depending on specification but realistically the software could come prepared for any motor providing the end user sets it up. Personally I've always wondered why cars have 3 or 4 LCD screens and I still have to see the dealer to find out why my check engine light came on. I'm one of those shade tree mechanics who would be able to handle the technical jargon.
    - tsss 6y ago
      There are regulatory reasons. In Germany all the functional parts of your car have to be certified, often for that specific vehicle and in combination with other parts. To a certain degree that's definitely necessary. I don't want people downloading bugged amateur software that will make the gas pedal stuck and drive into a crowd because they thought it would give them an additional 5 horsepower. This may sound foreign to the typical American who is allowed to drive around in a rusty mad-max vehicle with failing brakes and DIY body work that will impale any pedestrian unlucky enough to cross its path.
ZeroCool2u 6y ago
I can't help recall that scene in the iRobot movie with Will Smith where he pulls an ICE motorcycle out of storage and the other person he's with reacts with incredulity at the idea of sitting on top of explosions. It was mildly amusing back then (2004), now it seems inevitable. Also, if you haven't read the books, the iRobot stories are great. A quick read and maybe even a good exercise in humility for folks.
- jammaloo 6y ago
  Seconded on the iRobot stores. The movie is very loosely based on the book. The book is a collection of stories of debugging strange robot behaviour.
nindalf 6y ago
> Depending on which regulations are ultimately applied, the outlook for internal combustion engines could change dramatically once again – all the way to a scenario that makes it almost impossible to still register internal combustion engines after 2025 This is prescient. Government regulations in this particular area will continue to be revised as it becomes clearer that the shift to electric cars is happening rapidly, and it's obvious that this is the only lever in the fight against climate change. We wouldn't even know where to start when it comes to tackling the emissions from steel and cement (1/3rd of all greenhouse emissions). In September 2020 California banned the sale of ICE cars past 2035. In a couple of years, that'll change to 2030 or sooner. Most car manufacturers know this and some, like VW, are planning accordingly.
- germinalphrase 6y ago
  Bill Gates has been running around saying that we simply won’t tackle steel and cement, so we need to go hard on everything else to compensate/get to net zero.
  - SEJeff 6y ago
    But Bill Gates is incorrect. The Cement industry has a plan that they think can lower cement production greenhouse gasses by 40-80%. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cement-producers-are-developing-a-plan-to-reduce-co2-emissions/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cement-producers-...
    - nindalf 6y ago
      I upvoted you but you vastly overstate what that link actually says - this 40-80% estimate is from a process that doesn't exist yet. They might discover/invent this process but there's nothing to indicate that they will. As the headline says "they are developing a plan", kinda like how people are developing a plan to power society with fusion reactors. - Right now, cement works. It's worked for 200 years. There is no incentive or pressure to change. Carbon credits specifically carve out exceptions for cement, so the cost of polluting isn't borne by them. - Even if money was found to create a new competing substance that polluted less, it wouldn't be trusted as much as cement is with it's 200 year track record. What I'm getting from this article is that there is no change afoot in the cement industry. At best the energy they use might come from cleaner sources but that it's it. At it's heart it will still remain CaCO3 → CaO + CO2
mellosouls 6y ago
"VW makes vague promise." None of the executives specified a definite date for when they would exclusively produce electric vehicles. Previous targets saw the VW Group launching the last combustion engine platform in 2026, then running until 2040.
programmertote 6y ago
I'm 100% for doing everything we can to reducing the environmental impact of ICEs. I try to live minimally and reuse everything I can everyday to reduce my personal (negative) impact on the environment. With that said, I can't help but wonder if the significant majority of our cars become EVs and the batteries for them are made using rare earth metals and more importantly, are recycled poorly afterward, what's the added benefit of switching to EVs (in other words, what's the sweet spot like how many years would one need to use his/her EV to offset the environmental impact of batteries used in EV)? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_aspects_of_the_electric_car https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_aspects_of_the_e... If anyone has a credible study comparing on the net positive impact on the environment by transitioning to all EVs compared to say ICE, I'd love to read that. Thanks in advance!
- mmmBacon 6y ago
  I think you bring up a good point about auto recycling generally. There is a large industry in the US that recycles cars and car parts. About 80% of a car can be recycled. I wonder how the move to electric vehicles will impact a car’s overall recyclability.
  - ben-schaaf 6y ago
    If lead acid batteries are anything to go by the recyclability is only going to go up. Lead acid batteries are essentially a fully circular economy and have a stupid high recycle rate.
    - mmmBacon 6y ago
      I am not sure the lead-acid battery is a good analog. Lead acid batteries are very simple constructions and therefore easy to recycle. There is also economic incentive to recycle an old battery core as you get a lower price on a new battery when you turn in a battery for recycling. I’m no expert but seems like the process of recycling lithium cells is relatively complex. Seems also that electric motors are more difficult to recycle as well and the market for recycling them is also much less mature.
Laarlf 6y ago
Honestly a lost opportunity. Hydrogen, lean running ICE engines with ethanol, opposed piston engines are all really doable options to offer ICE engines. Which are still important for higher speed travel and places where you can’t charge at night. Especially in Germany the charging problem exists and won’t be fixed for many years. The cars are constantly getting older here. And I can see why.

145 points by reddotX 6y ago

This just sounds like VW Group have made a strategic decision to stop ICE development and they are letting each subsidiary announce it separately. Perhaps Porsche, Bugatti and Lamborghini will take longest to admit it? Edit: VW Group already has a huge range of petrol engines: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_petrol_engines https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Volkswagen_Group_petro...

moooo99 6y ago
VW already has a huge range of ICEs in their portfolio which are shared among their subsidiaries, especially VW, Audi, Seat and Skoda. Even if they all stop ICE development now, they have probably 5+ years until their engines would be out of date, so it makes absolute sense to shift their development focus to electronic drivetrains and use the products you already have on hand.
- baybal2 6y ago
  Certainly a better option to spend money in short term. While there is very little one can improve about electric drivetrain, because even a highschooler can make a 90% efficient one, acing the manufacturing still needs huge "experience cost."
  - moooo99 6y ago
    While an electric drivetrain is relatively simple at its concept, the challenges usually arise when you plan on building millions of that presumably simple drive train. I work at a bit automative supplier and see the thought that is required for building a seemingly simple component on a huge scale while ensuring high quality and safety. Designing the product is one thing, but designing it in a way where it can be built efficiently and mets a certain quality standard is where it gets difficult. And that is exactly the part where Tesla is struggling and where VW can make an investment that has a significant impact.
oblio 6y ago
Well, it's a huge decision and my guess is that they want to have as much exposure as they can get from this decision. They're the world's second largest automaker (and they tend to switch places with the first one, Toyota, periodically): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#By_manufacturer https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Automotive_industry#By_manufac... And they've just announced they're going to invest $86 bn in electric vehicles over the next 5 years: https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-strategy-idUSKBN27T24O https://www.reuters.com/article/volkswagen-strategy-idUSKBN2... They've just launched a modular electric platform that will probably be used in tens if not hundreds of new models (in the US only VW ID.4 has been launched so far).
- agumonkey 6y ago
  I wonder how much improvements EV will see now that capitals are going into it hard. Beside economy of scale.. really new battery chemistry, induction motor efficiency etc
  - oblio 6y ago
    Motors? Probably not much, their theoretical efficiency is super high and the practical one is reasonably close. Batteries chemistry, battery management through software are the main targets. To really beat ICEs we need something like 15-20% more battery capacity per weight and per volume (so both smaller and lighter batteries), faster charging, more charging cycles, less battery capacity loss over time, in about this order. And at least half this capital should go into infrastructure, in my opinion, primarily charging, better/smarter grid.
    - kube-system 6y ago
      Infrastructure is the most important part, IMO. For widespread adoption, EV charging will have to be just as convenient as gas vehicles. They've gotten a lot better in recent years, but there's still a lot of holes.
      - anonymfus 6y ago
_fat_santa 6y ago
Yeah, this title makes it sound like they are different entities. Audi is under the VW group, basically the same company, with different branding and product offering. > Perhaps Porsche, Bugatti and Lamborghini will take longest to admit it? Porsche will be the first, as they have the Taycan, the platform is already being exported to Audi and (my guess) will be the basis of a next gen Lamborghini. Bugatti is in a completely different plane of existence though. I'm not sure what will happen with Bugatti but I'm almost certain they will be sold. As a small volume manufacturer they should still be able to keep producing ICE engines. Their 16.4L W16 is practically a work of art. And because they are that special, it will be easiest for Bugatti to divorce from VW Group.
- r00t4ccess 6y ago
  Porsche keeps saying the 911 will never be electric so they are just making new cars to be electric.
  - firecall 6y ago
    It’s odd they say that. You’d think that at some point ICE will be no more, and then what? Porsche kill the 911 brand? Doesn’t seem likely. I’ve owned a couple of 911s and I’d happily own an electric one!
    - kwhitefoot 6y ago
      It already exists, though not from Porsche: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJLdzRJdKrs
    - Zigurd 6y ago
      An electric 911 would not still be a 911. The 911 is defined by engine placement and configuration. I think they are acknowledging that their customers would regard an electric 911 as a travesty.
      - oblio 6y ago
nashashmi 6y ago
They should open up the patents. And let other engine developers take advantage of their developments this far.
baybal2 6y ago
Very bad for Formuna-* races I guess. VW was bankrolling engine development for a big portion of Formulas race teams.
- Shivetya 6y ago
  Racing will move on to new technologies and hopefully drive development that enters the mainstream just as it does today for combustion engines
  - baybal2 6y ago
    Electric powertrain is boring. You get 98.5% efficient electric motor with any amount of torque you want. Or you get another 98.5% efficient electric motor with any amount of torque you want. That's about all differentiating features.
    - bayindirh 6y ago
      > Electric powertrain is boring. Tell this to Formula-e teams which found out that even a 1.5 degree difference in magnet placement can effect performance characteristics of motors tremendously. Similarly, thermal management of the same motors change their power characteristics enormously. They're trying to simulate and optimize these things in that boring cable spaghetti.
      - rad_gruchalski 6y ago
        Good luck entering a 24h race with an ev. Hydrogen is definitely a better platform for that.
        bayindirh 6y ago
        If there's something I learnt over the years about any technology is making big claims about any technology is very risky. A small invention/progress/optimization would change everything about that technology. I'd rather have my popcorn and watch the competition.
sgt 6y ago
Probably a technicality, but Porsche actually owns VW Group, which again owns Porsche cars, Audi etc
- arethuza 6y ago
  Isn't that a different Porsche company though? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche The latter is a 100% owned subsidiary of VW AG which has Porsche SE as the largest shareholder? i.e. Porsche the company that makes the cars is a subsidiary of VW Group which is then partially owned by Porsche SE which is a holding company.
  - sgt 6y ago
    Yeah, but the "true" Porsche, if you will.
odiroot 6y ago
I heard in Handelsblatt's podcast a few weeks ago that new Porsche CEO (?) was already planning for it. They're thinking how to introduce "wow factor" to electric cars. They don't want to be just another Tesla. Apparently Porsche was always about being "exclusive".
jillesvangurp 6y ago
The writing is on the wall. Most manufacturers are at this point actively milking their sunk investment in ICE for as long as they can while simultaneously developing their EV strategy without killing their ICE strategy. A few have woken up to the notion that this is a losing strategy and that they need to go all in on EV. Basically the market is split between compliance vehicles, limited production EVs also available in ICE or hybrid configuration, or 100% EV only cars. The latter tend to have superior cost margins, performance, etc. VW basically is doing the latter and is now announcing the status quo that, yes, VW/Audi/Porsche ICE development is dead as a door nail. Porsche sales are already dominated by their EV sales and growing quite nicely. I think the Audi eTron is also considered a success at this point. In Germany, an added dimension is that the unions are waking up to the notion that their companies need to change in order for their members to stay employed. Anyone employed in ICE production lines is worrying about when (not if) they will be layed off. There seem to be regular announcements from all German manufacturers about layoff rounds. So, this is very real for them. VW has been converting factories to battery and EV production over the last years and they are ramping up volume production to probably surpass Tesla pretty soon in terms of volume sales. Considering the ID.3 only launched summer last year, that's impressive. I think BMW and Daimler are getting worried about their position in the market at this point (or at least they should be). So, unions understandably want to see realistic plans for the future from these companies. As opposed to e.g. BMW waffling about hybrids as "the future" so they don't have to talk about not having a lot of EV production or a plan for fixing that.
- lagadu 6y ago
  > Porsche sales are already dominated by their EV sales and growing quite nicely. Source on this? Because in 2020 the Taycan line sold less than the 718, 911 and Cayenne lines[0]. [0]https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/company/porsche-deliveries-2020-worldwide-23368.html https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021/company/porsche-deliver...
  - jillesvangurp 6y ago
    I was talking about their growth more than absolute volume. VW also still has a lot of legacy sales. And of course they will need that for a while. But their growth is coming from EVs.

blunte 6y ago

I’m pleased with this, but it does remind me of Red Barchetta by Rush.

mtmail 6y ago
I looked it up "The song's lyrics tell a story set in a future in which many classes of vehicles have been banned by a "Motor Law."" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Barchetta https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Barchetta
- oblio 6y ago
  This has been happening for almost 3 decades: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards Hardly super visionary :-)
  - Corrado 6y ago
    >Hardly super visionary :-) I don't know about that. Red Barchetta was written in 1981 and that law didn't arrive until 1992. 10 years seems pretty visionary to me. :)

loremipsium 6y ago

first scrapping old but reliable cars with cash incentives to buy "clean" diesel. Then dieselgate pushing for gasoline powered cars and getting pennies on the dollar back. Now killing ICE alltogether. Not going to buy VW Group cars anytime soon.

oblio 6y ago
> Now killing ICE all together. The writing is on the wall. In Europe several big cities as well as countries have announced that they'll ban diesel engines in about 10 years, max. Some have announced that they'll ban all ICE cars in about 15-20 years.
- patrickk 6y ago
  Even bigger than the city by city ban is the huge, and ever more demanding EU commission fines on car makers, measured by grams of CO2 averaged across the fleet. So what's happening is VW is trying to get ahead of the enormous fines which will make it impossible to keep selling larger sized ICE cars in the EU (e.g. SUVs which are becoming ever more popular in Europe). > According to the EU, fleet emissions in 2018 were 120g/km, which means automakers need a 21 percent reduction overall to avoid fines that could total as much as 33 billion euros this year, according to some estimates. Each gram over the limit, per vehicle, will cost automakers 95 euros. > Each automaker has a different target, based on the average mass of the vehicles they sell, and only 95 percent of sales are measured in 2020, meaning that some high-polluting cars won't count. Even so, analyst ISI Evercore has warned that the "2020-21 CO2 regulation poses the biggest risk to the auto industry in recent memory." Source: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/how-automakers-plan-avoid-co2-fines-europe https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/how-automakers-plan-a... EDIT: Some countries, e.g. Ireland[1] and the UK[2], have decided to ban all new ICE cars completely from 2030. [1] https://www.newstalk.com/news/electric-vehicle-ownership-should-be-looked-at-from-an-equity-point-of-view-says-expert-1117366 https://www.newstalk.com/news/electric-vehicle-ownership-sho... [2] https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/the-uk-plans-to-ban-sales-of-diesel-and-petrol-cars-from-2030.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/18/the-uk-plans-to-ban-sales-of...
- IneffablePigeon 6y ago

mberning 6y ago

They said development. Not production or sales. Truth be told all the low hanging fruit with combustion engines was gobbled up back in the 80s and 90s with the advent of EFI. Since then it has been diminishing returns. The engines of today are about as clean as they could be without an insane amount of additional development. These manufacturers will be happy to keep selling their current ICE engines for years to come and devote the lions share of their R&D budgets to electrification efforts.

prox 6y ago
A lot of work in this field afaik is about finding new materials or using more common materials to do the same thing. Getting more R&D in this field early is definitely worth the pay off, and the right time as well.

apercu 6y ago

On one hand I'm sorry to see the tooling and expertise disappear. But perhaps it's (long past) time?

s_dev 6y ago
It hasn't disappered -- it will be preserved because it's important. The tooling will exist in automotive museums and the expertise will reside in engineering historians and engineering academics -- the first tractor engines are generally still the learning tools for many undergrads. That knowledge just shifts from working proffessionals to another group in society.
- Kinrany 6y ago
  Why is it important? Where would the incentive come from? Who would be actually interested in still being able to invent new engines?

Theodores 6y ago

The wording of the article title gives the impression that they will stick with the engines they have got. Really they are just going to develop the engines they have and not design from scratch any new engines. A new engine from scratch rarely happens. Many engines can be traced back decades with there never being a new design, just iterative improvement. Can anyone think of a new engine developed from scratch? Without any parts carried over? I suppose this happened when VW built the Veyron.

Mauricebranagh 6y ago
In the 1980's when I was in college one of GM's main engines in the UK was basically a 1930's design (updated slightly over the years).
valuearb 6y ago
Yea this title is total click bait.
RickHull 6y ago
The VR6 from VW was introduced in 1991. I'm sure you can point to lineage with earlier designs, but it's a unique design. The Freevalve design from Koenigsegg also comes to mind.

dmitriid 6y ago

Grain of salt and all that: > In an exclusive interview, brand CEO Ralf Brandstätter said, “At the moment, I do not expect a completely new engine family to be launched.” Still, he wants to develop the engines currently in use and prepare them for new emissions standards such as Euro 7 So no, they are not ending ICE development. They continue development. As to what "a new family of ICE" means is anyone's guess. An, of course, this: > Depending on which regulations are ultimately applied, the outlook for internal combustion engines could change dramatically once again So, ending, but not really ending, and the outlook may change again.

oblio 6y ago
ICE families/generations are quite well defined if you follow automotive news.
kube-system 6y ago
> As to what "a new family of ICE" means is anyone's guess. It's exactly what he said. Modern engine-families are typically developed as somewhat of a modular platform. Then, there are several or even dozens of variations of that platform for various needs, some with different emissions accessories, some with varying displacements, compression ratios, valve/spark timings, etc. For a tech analogy: it's similar to how CPU manufacturers design a core architecture and then give you varying numbers of cores, cache, thermal designs, feature sets, etc.
barkingcat 6y ago
"a new family of ICE" is not as confusing as you might think. Automotive engines have clearly defined generations and families of development. You can think of "new family of ICE" as the equivalent of processor instruction sets. A common "new family of instruction sets" would be something like the development of the AMD x86-64 64 bit instruction sets on top of the original 32 bit x86 set. A smaller "subfamily" or "development" can mean the addition of a new family of SIMD or something like AVX512, etc. However, the processor family is still an offshoot of x86 then x86-64, etc. In car automotive engines, it's exactly the same process. An ICE engine family can be in use for well over 20 years undergoing iterative improvements. VW will not continue to push the automotive equivalent of developing new instruction sets for the x64 processor. postmark: some examples of past "families of development" in internal combustion engines: carburator -> fuel injection; development of the supercharger and turbocharger, and making engines strong enough to withstand pressures from undergoing forced induction; hybridization - adding a battery to the drive train; etc All of these would be seen as major "ICE new families" - and for example in the VW and Audi world, you would see "families" of engines that would have, for example, a turbo on the engine in a particular model year, vs naturally aspirated only from the past model year car, etc. In VW, one major family is the VR6 - it's an innovation specific and proprietary to VW alone, and it's been around since 1991, and still in production - you see them still on new generation VW Atlas as a base engine option - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VR6_engine https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VR6_engine - that's a 30 year run for an "engine family". The Bugatti Veyron uses 2 VR8 bolted together to make a W16 engine - this is the same VR engine family technology taken to the extreme edges of performance. VW will no longer develop another internal combustion engine family in the way they kick started the "VR6" project back in the 90's.

innagadadavida 6y ago

Are there any large companies considering doing a turbine electric hybrid? Plain turbine cars were actually done 50 years ago and Jay Leno’s garage has one and he’s actually built one. Even one of Tesla’s co-founder (Ian Wright) has a startup doing this. One advantage is that it can burn any fuel - hydrogen included. This can be practical for larger vehicles especially.

rurban 6y ago

That would be news to me that VW actually had any engine in development by themselves. Last thing I heard were small customizations in their racing department. Before they could announce ending any engine development, wouldn't they need to start one before?

nabla9 6y ago

What's going on? Volkswagen AG (VOW) +199% in 12 month, +10,91% today. Porsche (PAH3) +177,86% in 12 month, +8,50% today.

oblio 6y ago
They've announced huge EV plans. Like "bet the farm" plans. In US it's not as visible because of Musk's Reality Distortion Field.
durnygbur 6y ago
DACH countries are jelous of Tesla. Soon even children in post-Communist countries will be forced to work for German automotive industry, skipping any education. No other opportunities will be available. (Meantime MS, G, and Big Four salesfolks are hysterical to sell them "The Cloud")
arethuza 6y ago
Worth noting that PAH3 appears to be Porsche SE - the holdings company that is the largest shareholder in VOW, not the Porsche company that makes the cars - which is 100% owned by Volkswagen AG (VOW). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porsche_SE
ike77 6y ago
COVID... They are "only" up 27% from 14 month ago.
vishnugupta 6y ago
Yeah, there's a chance VW are playing this to the market. As a commenter opined in another thread; new engines are rarely developed anyway and they stated that they will continue to iterate over current set of engines. Note that there's no word about VW's EV plans besides this line "None of the executives specified a definite date for when they would exclusively produce electric vehicles". There's also this line "Completely new engines were unlikely, he said.". Seems like a planted PR piece by VW to further fuel the stock price momentum.

bookmarkable 6y ago

I'm a Tesla fan and love "electro-mods" - classics outfitted with battery packs - but this seems premature to me. There is 100 years of knowledge of these engines and moving to battery tech does not require quitting ICE entirely.

capableweb 6y ago
A cursory glance at the article would reveal that they are not completely ending the development either, only development of new "engine families". > "At the moment, I do not expect a completely new engine family to be launched." Still, he wants to develop the engines currently in use and prepare them for new emissions standards such as Euro 7
oblio 6y ago
What did you think was going to happen, though? :-) If EVs become good enough, investing in ICE at previous levels is unsustainable. Plus we have a ton of cool tech that's barely used today (steam engines, for examples). That's why we have museums.
- mbrodersen 6y ago
  Steam turbines are used everywhere today. Inside power plants, nuclear submarines etc. etc.
Retric 6y ago
They will still use ICE and do ICE R&D. “Further developments of the existing units” will continue.

matthewfelgate 6y ago

I'm a big fan of electrics cars, but maybe the demise of the ICE is greatly exaggerated? I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time.

pornel 6y ago
Even if all ICE production stopped today, we'd have existing cars on the roads for a while. As EV production ramps up, they should get cheaper due to economies of scale and the technology maturing. Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful, but that's also a chicken-egg problem that will solve itself. EVs already have significantly lower per-mile cost, so it's only the initial cost that's higher. I think we're not far off from the initial cost falling low enough that it won't make sense to buy new ICE, and then adoption will accelerate rapidly. Look at smartphones. There was a time when they were expensive toys and almost nobody had them, until they reached a tipping point.
- cptskippy 6y ago
  > Currently the public charging infrastructure is awful In what sense?
bryanlarsen 6y ago
You're already wrong. Electric cars already dominate the sub-$5000 car market in China.
- ike77 6y ago
  But China's sub-$5000 cars are far from western safety standard They are even far from Chinese ones, but the government is looking in another direction to give the time to the industry to ramp up. And Chinese EVs that are up to safety standards are not cheap. So I'm not sure your comparison is valid.
srg0 6y ago
> I get the feeling petrol cars will be cheaper than electric cars for the low end of the market for a long long time. Various reports estimate electric vehicle cost parity to be achieved around 2025 for small cars, and around 2028 for SUVs (source: theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EV_cost_2020_2030_20190401.pdf) Used ICE cars will probably remain a cheaper option for another 10 years.

mymythisisthis 6y ago

China will produce most of the ICE vehicles. VW will simply buy a Chinese company, and hide behind a new 'brand'. It's cheaper to make things in China, ICE engines haven't changed much in two decades. Also, ICE engines aren't going anywhere, it'll just be too hard to make money building them, as China ramps up production. Much like N.America lost out to Japanese cars in the 1980s, now they'll lose out to Chinese ones.

MagnumOpus 6y ago
Automotive tariffs are literally made to prevent exactly that. And shipping costs for 2-tonne hunks of steel are substantial enough, far more so than for consumer electronics.

marcodiego 6y ago

An electric motor is way simpler than an ICE. Even controlling it electronically to increase its performance, efficiency and response should be easily doable with simple MCU's. There's no reason we should accept electric cars with complex computers running complex unfixable proprietary software that only the vendor has access to the source code and is updated over-the-air without owner's consenting. Cars may become the next walled garden.

chrisseaton 6y ago
> There's no reason we should accept electric cars with complex computers running complex unfixable proprietary software that only the vendor has access to the source code and is updated over-the-air without owner's consenting. All the other systems in the car require sophisticated integrated computers and sensors - automatic breaking, cruise control, speed limiting, suspension management - it's not just about the motors. I'm not sure there's any way to put the genie back in the bottle?
- zelon88 6y ago
  There totally is. All of those sensors are pretty standard fair. If someone made an open source control unit that allowed a technician to calibrate these sensors there is no reason they cannot be universal. Or at least plug and play to a certain extent. Look at a MAF sensor: it's just a heating element and a temperature probe. If you could calibrate the resistance of the heating element to known temperature; the sensors themselves all behave the same. Electric motors are a little different depending on specification but realistically the software could come prepared for any motor providing the end user sets it up. Personally I've always wondered why cars have 3 or 4 LCD screens and I still have to see the dealer to find out why my check engine light came on. I'm one of those shade tree mechanics who would be able to handle the technical jargon.
  - tsss 6y ago
    There are regulatory reasons. In Germany all the functional parts of your car have to be certified, often for that specific vehicle and in combination with other parts. To a certain degree that's definitely necessary. I don't want people downloading bugged amateur software that will make the gas pedal stuck and drive into a crowd because they thought it would give them an additional 5 horsepower. This may sound foreign to the typical American who is allowed to drive around in a rusty mad-max vehicle with failing brakes and DIY body work that will impale any pedestrian unlucky enough to cross its path.

ZeroCool2u 6y ago

I can't help recall that scene in the iRobot movie with Will Smith where he pulls an ICE motorcycle out of storage and the other person he's with reacts with incredulity at the idea of sitting on top of explosions. It was mildly amusing back then (2004), now it seems inevitable. Also, if you haven't read the books, the iRobot stories are great. A quick read and maybe even a good exercise in humility for folks.

jammaloo 6y ago
Seconded on the iRobot stores. The movie is very loosely based on the book. The book is a collection of stories of debugging strange robot behaviour.

nindalf 6y ago

> Depending on which regulations are ultimately applied, the outlook for internal combustion engines could change dramatically once again – all the way to a scenario that makes it almost impossible to still register internal combustion engines after 2025 This is prescient. Government regulations in this particular area will continue to be revised as it becomes clearer that the shift to electric cars is happening rapidly, and it's obvious that this is the only lever in the fight against climate change. We wouldn't even know where to start when it comes to tackling the emissions from steel and cement (1/3rd of all greenhouse emissions). In September 2020 California banned the sale of ICE cars past 2035. In a couple of years, that'll change to 2030 or sooner. Most car manufacturers know this and some, like VW, are planning accordingly.

germinalphrase 6y ago
Bill Gates has been running around saying that we simply won’t tackle steel and cement, so we need to go hard on everything else to compensate/get to net zero.
- SEJeff 6y ago
  But Bill Gates is incorrect. The Cement industry has a plan that they think can lower cement production greenhouse gasses by 40-80%. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cement-producers-are-developing-a-plan-to-reduce-co2-emissions/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/cement-producers-...
  - nindalf 6y ago
    I upvoted you but you vastly overstate what that link actually says - this 40-80% estimate is from a process that doesn't exist yet. They might discover/invent this process but there's nothing to indicate that they will. As the headline says "they are developing a plan", kinda like how people are developing a plan to power society with fusion reactors. - Right now, cement works. It's worked for 200 years. There is no incentive or pressure to change. Carbon credits specifically carve out exceptions for cement, so the cost of polluting isn't borne by them. - Even if money was found to create a new competing substance that polluted less, it wouldn't be trusted as much as cement is with it's 200 year track record. What I'm getting from this article is that there is no change afoot in the cement industry. At best the energy they use might come from cleaner sources but that it's it. At it's heart it will still remain CaCO3 → CaO + CO2

mellosouls 6y ago

"VW makes vague promise." None of the executives specified a definite date for when they would exclusively produce electric vehicles. Previous targets saw the VW Group launching the last combustion engine platform in 2026, then running until 2040.

programmertote 6y ago

I'm 100% for doing everything we can to reducing the environmental impact of ICEs. I try to live minimally and reuse everything I can everyday to reduce my personal (negative) impact on the environment. With that said, I can't help but wonder if the significant majority of our cars become EVs and the batteries for them are made using rare earth metals and more importantly, are recycled poorly afterward, what's the added benefit of switching to EVs (in other words, what's the sweet spot like how many years would one need to use his/her EV to offset the environmental impact of batteries used in EV)? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_aspects_of_the_electric_car https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_aspects_of_the_e... If anyone has a credible study comparing on the net positive impact on the environment by transitioning to all EVs compared to say ICE, I'd love to read that. Thanks in advance!

mmmBacon 6y ago
I think you bring up a good point about auto recycling generally. There is a large industry in the US that recycles cars and car parts. About 80% of a car can be recycled. I wonder how the move to electric vehicles will impact a car’s overall recyclability.
- ben-schaaf 6y ago
  If lead acid batteries are anything to go by the recyclability is only going to go up. Lead acid batteries are essentially a fully circular economy and have a stupid high recycle rate.
  - mmmBacon 6y ago
    I am not sure the lead-acid battery is a good analog. Lead acid batteries are very simple constructions and therefore easy to recycle. There is also economic incentive to recycle an old battery core as you get a lower price on a new battery when you turn in a battery for recycling. I’m no expert but seems like the process of recycling lithium cells is relatively complex. Seems also that electric motors are more difficult to recycle as well and the market for recycling them is also much less mature.

Laarlf 6y ago

Honestly a lost opportunity. Hydrogen, lean running ICE engines with ethanol, opposed piston engines are all really doable options to offer ICE engines. Which are still important for higher speed travel and places where you can’t charge at night. Especially in Germany the charging problem exists and won’t be fixed for many years. The cars are constantly getting older here. And I can see why.