5 ms·

Here is something for you to consider: this is the new 'normal'. That world you lived in 18 months ago? Gone. Not coming back. There is no 'end point', it j

by evgen 6y ago

Here is something for you to consider: this is the new 'normal'. That world you lived in 18 months ago? Gone. Not coming back. There is no 'end point', it just goes on and we learn to adapt. Eventually we get better at it, learn more about what is and is not a risk, and a few things start to look like the 2019, but most things don't go back. This is the reality you need to adjust to.

feanaro 6y ago
Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?
- evgen 6y ago
  I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise like influenza (still a killer, but almost a part of the landscape), but it is equally possible that it takes more work for a longer period to get it under control. The person I was responding to was demanding an 'end point to all of this' and I was suggesting that maybe there isn't one. I don't need to provide proof, only to show that it is possible and the request for some sort of definitive planned end to all of the containment and mitigation work is an unreasonable and childish demand.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    I think you're misunderstanding the question. Many of the components of "back to normal" are about voluntary compliance with disease control measures. For example, I currently hang out with friends only outdoors or in very small groups - not because I couldn't do more, or because I'm afraid to, but because I'm hoping to prosocially blunt the spread of disease. Right now, I've already started going to restaurants (although I was never a big restaurant guy to begin with); I plan to start hosting and attending parties a few weeks after I've been vaccinated, and I plan to stop wearing a mask in public once Covid vaccines become as available as flu vaccines in my local area. I'm very open to suggestions that it might make sense to wait a little longer before partying or taking off my mask. I'm sure other people are too. But the burden of proof is on you (or others who think the same way) to explain why this is important and what the timeline is. If your position is just a lecture about what we "need" to adjust to, or an assertion that life might never be normal again, that's not really going to get anyone to comply.
    - icedchai 6y ago
      If you told people in March, 2020, that this would still be going on over a year from now, and likely 18+ months from now, what do you think the reaction would be? "You're crazy"??? Trump was talking about "reopening" things for Easter last year. He should've said Easter, 2022. I was looking back at some old texts from a friend, last year around this time... "I hope this isn't going on 6 months from now." People want to be optimistic. We need to prepare people for reality.
      - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        There are already areas of the country where "this" isn't going on, where businesses are open at full capacity and the public is happy to patronize them. Even in the most socially distanced areas, there's lots of people going on vacations and eating in restaurants and having house parties with their friends and family. So when you talk about reopening in Easter 2022, it's hard to connect that with the state of things today, much less the likely results when vaccines finish rolling out.
        icedchai 6y ago
        We will absolutely see another surge before the vaccine roll out is completed. So tens of thousands of more people will die because states reopened too quickly. Easter, 2022 is no more realistic than Easter, 2020. Expectations need to be set that are reasonable and err on the side of caution and pessimism.
        SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        The source of this thread was a comment attempting to set the expectation that things will never get better, and nobody will ever again live the way they did in 2019. There’s a huge chasm between that and your (reasonable) claim that some people have moved a bit too fast and there may be public health consequences.
        6y ago
icedchai 6y ago
Of course, nobody wants to believe this, but I suspect you will ultimately be proven right.

by evgen 6y ago

feanaro 6y ago

Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?

evgen 6y ago
I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise like influenza (still a killer, but almost a part of the landscape), but it is equally possible that it takes more work for a longer period to get it under control. The person I was responding to was demanding an 'end point to all of this' and I was suggesting that maybe there isn't one. I don't need to provide proof, only to show that it is possible and the request for some sort of definitive planned end to all of the containment and mitigation work is an unreasonable and childish demand.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
  I think you're misunderstanding the question. Many of the components of "back to normal" are about voluntary compliance with disease control measures. For example, I currently hang out with friends only outdoors or in very small groups - not because I couldn't do more, or because I'm afraid to, but because I'm hoping to prosocially blunt the spread of disease. Right now, I've already started going to restaurants (although I was never a big restaurant guy to begin with); I plan to start hosting and attending parties a few weeks after I've been vaccinated, and I plan to stop wearing a mask in public once Covid vaccines become as available as flu vaccines in my local area. I'm very open to suggestions that it might make sense to wait a little longer before partying or taking off my mask. I'm sure other people are too. But the burden of proof is on you (or others who think the same way) to explain why this is important and what the timeline is. If your position is just a lecture about what we "need" to adjust to, or an assertion that life might never be normal again, that's not really going to get anyone to comply.
  - icedchai 6y ago
    If you told people in March, 2020, that this would still be going on over a year from now, and likely 18+ months from now, what do you think the reaction would be? "You're crazy"??? Trump was talking about "reopening" things for Easter last year. He should've said Easter, 2022. I was looking back at some old texts from a friend, last year around this time... "I hope this isn't going on 6 months from now." People want to be optimistic. We need to prepare people for reality.
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      There are already areas of the country where "this" isn't going on, where businesses are open at full capacity and the public is happy to patronize them. Even in the most socially distanced areas, there's lots of people going on vacations and eating in restaurants and having house parties with their friends and family. So when you talk about reopening in Easter 2022, it's hard to connect that with the state of things today, much less the likely results when vaccines finish rolling out.
      - icedchai 6y ago
        We will absolutely see another surge before the vaccine roll out is completed. So tens of thousands of more people will die because states reopened too quickly. Easter, 2022 is no more realistic than Easter, 2020. Expectations need to be set that are reasonable and err on the side of caution and pessimism.
        SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
        The source of this thread was a comment attempting to set the expectation that things will never get better, and nobody will ever again live the way they did in 2019. There’s a huge chasm between that and your (reasonable) claim that some people have moved a bit too fast and there may be public health consequences.
        6y ago

icedchai 6y ago

Of course, nobody wants to believe this, but I suspect you will ultimately be proven right.