4 ms·

I don’t see any reason new variants would ever stop coming. What are you proposing is the end point of all of this?

by mrfusion 6y ago

jonplackett 6y ago
Regular vaccinations, just like the flu
- raducu 6y ago
  Plus widely available monoclonal antibodies to be administered as soon as a positive test. Plus the development of other antivirals.
inglor_cz 6y ago
New variants are going to come, but vaccinated people may have some protection against them, or they may recieve a booster tailored to new variants, if they are extra vulnerable. Also, treatments are being developed. If we can turn future variants of Covid into something like a common cold, we are going to be fine living with it. We just need to prevent bilateral pneumonia with a cytokine storm that threatens to kill the patient.
acdha 6y ago
Think about what leads to new variants: every time someone is infected, the virus replicates and has 10e9 chances to come up with something which is advantageous for it. If, like the U.K variant, it lucks into someone with a compromised immune system it might get even more chances to evolve an effective combination. The way we get it to stop winning is to stop buying it lottery tickets. Masks, vaccines, and other measures like paid sick leave cut into that number enormously.
evgen 6y ago
Here is something for you to consider: this is the new 'normal'. That world you lived in 18 months ago? Gone. Not coming back. There is no 'end point', it just goes on and we learn to adapt. Eventually we get better at it, learn more about what is and is not a risk, and a few things start to look like the 2019, but most things don't go back. This is the reality you need to adjust to.
- feanaro 6y ago
  Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?
  - evgen 6y ago
    I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise like influenza (still a killer, but almost a part of the landscape), but it is equally possible that it takes more work for a longer period to get it under control. The person I was responding to was demanding an 'end point to all of this' and I was suggesting that maybe there isn't one. I don't need to provide proof, only to show that it is possible and the request for some sort of definitive planned end to all of the containment and mitigation work is an unreasonable and childish demand.
    - deleted 6y ago
      [deleted]
    - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
      I think you're misunderstanding the question. Many of the components of "back to normal" are about voluntary compliance with disease control measures. For example, I currently hang out with friends only outdoors or in very small groups - not because I couldn't do more, or because I'm afraid to, but because I'm hoping to prosocially blunt the spread of disease. Right now, I've already started going to restaurants (although I was never a big restaurant guy to begin with); I plan to start hosting and attending parties a few weeks after I've been vaccinated, and I plan to stop wearing a mask in public once Covid vaccines become as available as flu vaccines in my local area. I'm very open to suggestions that it might make sense to wait a little longer before partying or taking off my mask. I'm sure other people are too. But the burden of proof is on you (or others who think the same way) to explain why this is important and what the timeline is. If your position is just a lecture about what we "need" to adjust to, or an assertion that life might never be normal again, that's not really going to get anyone to comply.
cwyers 6y ago
The reason COVID=19 hit the way it did was because it was novel; there were not similar diseases from an immunological standpoint being spread widely. Right now, exposure to one COVID strain (or a vaccination against a COVID strain) seems to confer some benefits against infection and/or serious disease from another COVID strain. In other words, as COVID becomes less novel, we become more prepared for new variants. We may end up having to have annual COVID vaccines the way we do flu vaccines, but even people who are unvaccinated against a particular flu strain have antibodies from previous flu strains that offer some measure of protection. That's going to drive down the reproduction rate and the lethality of future COVID strains. That said, there may not be a clear "end point" in the sense of we go back to how things were before. We may simply be heading towards a new steady state with periodic vaccination efforts and some risk of COVID variants all the time.

I don’t see any reason new variants would ever stop coming. What are you proposing is the end point of all of this?

jonplackett 6y ago

Regular vaccinations, just like the flu

raducu 6y ago
Plus widely available monoclonal antibodies to be administered as soon as a positive test. Plus the development of other antivirals.

inglor_cz 6y ago

New variants are going to come, but vaccinated people may have some protection against them, or they may recieve a booster tailored to new variants, if they are extra vulnerable. Also, treatments are being developed. If we can turn future variants of Covid into something like a common cold, we are going to be fine living with it. We just need to prevent bilateral pneumonia with a cytokine storm that threatens to kill the patient.

acdha 6y ago

Think about what leads to new variants: every time someone is infected, the virus replicates and has 10e9 chances to come up with something which is advantageous for it. If, like the U.K variant, it lucks into someone with a compromised immune system it might get even more chances to evolve an effective combination. The way we get it to stop winning is to stop buying it lottery tickets. Masks, vaccines, and other measures like paid sick leave cut into that number enormously.

evgen 6y ago

Here is something for you to consider: this is the new 'normal'. That world you lived in 18 months ago? Gone. Not coming back. There is no 'end point', it just goes on and we learn to adapt. Eventually we get better at it, learn more about what is and is not a risk, and a few things start to look like the 2019, but most things don't go back. This is the reality you need to adjust to.

feanaro 6y ago
Why are you saying this with such an absolute certainty without providing a convincing argument?
- evgen 6y ago
  I am not saying it is certain, but there is a distinct class of people who expect everything to go back to the way it was and to do so immediately. They need to consider the possibility that things might _never_ return to the way they were. It is possible that all of the vaccines will work better than we expect and covid-19 will become a mostly-controlled intermittent disease that eventually becomes background noise like influenza (still a killer, but almost a part of the landscape), but it is equally possible that it takes more work for a longer period to get it under control. The person I was responding to was demanding an 'end point to all of this' and I was suggesting that maybe there isn't one. I don't need to provide proof, only to show that it is possible and the request for some sort of definitive planned end to all of the containment and mitigation work is an unreasonable and childish demand.
  - deleted 6y ago
    [deleted]
  - SpicyLemonZest 6y ago
    I think you're misunderstanding the question. Many of the components of "back to normal" are about voluntary compliance with disease control measures. For example, I currently hang out with friends only outdoors or in very small groups - not because I couldn't do more, or because I'm afraid to, but because I'm hoping to prosocially blunt the spread of disease. Right now, I've already started going to restaurants (although I was never a big restaurant guy to begin with); I plan to start hosting and attending parties a few weeks after I've been vaccinated, and I plan to stop wearing a mask in public once Covid vaccines become as available as flu vaccines in my local area. I'm very open to suggestions that it might make sense to wait a little longer before partying or taking off my mask. I'm sure other people are too. But the burden of proof is on you (or others who think the same way) to explain why this is important and what the timeline is. If your position is just a lecture about what we "need" to adjust to, or an assertion that life might never be normal again, that's not really going to get anyone to comply.

cwyers 6y ago

The reason COVID=19 hit the way it did was because it was novel; there were not similar diseases from an immunological standpoint being spread widely. Right now, exposure to one COVID strain (or a vaccination against a COVID strain) seems to confer some benefits against infection and/or serious disease from another COVID strain. In other words, as COVID becomes less novel, we become more prepared for new variants. We may end up having to have annual COVID vaccines the way we do flu vaccines, but even people who are unvaccinated against a particular flu strain have antibodies from previous flu strains that offer some measure of protection. That's going to drive down the reproduction rate and the lethality of future COVID strains. That said, there may not be a clear "end point" in the sense of we go back to how things were before. We may simply be heading towards a new steady state with periodic vaccination efforts and some risk of COVID variants all the time.