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That seems pretty low compared to what is happening here in Belgium. We are at 22k deaths with +/- 25% of a 11M of the population having been infected (based o
by raphaelj 6y ago
That seems pretty low compared to what is happening here in Belgium.
We are at 22k deaths with +/- 25% of a 11M of the population having been infected (based on serology and statistical estimates).
- idoubtit 6y agoIf I'm not mistaken, the rate in the paper is bigger, 0.25% against 22k/11M = 0.20% in Belgium. But if the newspaper I read are right, there is a catch: when tests were not available, Belgium counted as a covid death every case where it could be suspected. Even nowadays, in case of comorbidity, covid is always written down as the cause of death. So 22k is probably a maximum, and, taking into accound the 25% uncertainty on the denominator, the real rate could very different.
- timerol 6y agoI think you're misreading the comment you replied to. "+/- 25% of a 11M of the population having been infected" means about 25% of 11M, or 2.75M, officially infected. 22k/2.75M would imply a 0.8% fatality rate.
- raphaelj 6y agoExactly. And with respect to the counting, it seems like the Belgian numbers more of less match the reported excess deaths in 2020 within 10% [1]. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v...
- lukeinkster 6y agoSeems low compared to New York City as well. NYC has already had 30,564 deaths. Even if the whole population had already been infected, that would put the death rate at around 0.36% Antibody surveys suggest around 40% have been infected which puts the death rate around 0.91%
- marcosdumay 6y agoKeep in mind that the GP's link shows a ratio of more than 1% for people older than 60 years. The 0.26% average is certainly not the same everywhere.