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Still they are at the forefront in the field. IMO in the same ballpark as Waymo. Elon operates by setting impossible goals and under delivering on them but sti

Still they are at the forefront in the field. IMO in the same ballpark as Waymo. Elon operates by setting impossible goals and under delivering on them but still going faster than all the other players. Most FSD buyers are reasonably aware of the gamble they are taking. If Tesla turns out to not be capable of deliver FSD, it's a straightforward class action to refund everyone. Meanwhile they are trying hard to build the damn thing and my kudos for that.

xkeysc0re 6y ago
>If Tesla turns out to not be capable of deliver FSD, it's a straightforward class action to refund everyone. The reality distortion field in action. "Hey no big deal they're straight up lying to consumers and putting their lives in danger!"
ra7 6y ago
> Still they are at the forefront in the field. IMO in the same ballpark as Waymo. They are nowhere near Waymo, who is doing actually driverless rides for the public. Tesla's confidence level is still at "you need to keep your hands on the wheel at all times".
- mac01021 6y ago
  I have questions about Waymo's taxi service. I'm certain that they occasionally run into situations that require human intervention, or at least need to be prepared for such an eventuality (see examples below). In such scenarios, what happens? The passenger operates the car? A remote operator takes controls? The car refuses to move and becomes a hazard or causes congestion? For example, you come up to a 4-way intersection and a traffic cop there signals you to stop and says you can't go through because all the man-hole covers are off, but since you want to turn left you can go through the parking lot of the corner gas station to get onto the other road. For another example, right after the st-patrick's day parade is over or right after the college town's team has just won the NCAA championship, the street is full of people and the car has to inch forward at a rate of half of a mile per hour and the pedestrians don't get out of the way until the car is about to touch them.
  - ra7 6y ago
    In the scenarios you described, a remote operator would "help" the car. They've specifically said remote operators can't control or joystick the car, but can "answer questions" which I take it to mean plot a different course. It can also pull over at a safe spot and not get stuck in the middle of an intersection, though nobody has run into this issue to test it from the videos I've watched. The examples you gave sound like scenarios where remote operator would instruct "don't go there, go here" and the car does it by itself. But specifically about the traffic cop, it can actually detect hand signals from them (can't find the video though).
  - ycombobreaker 6y ago
    > since you want to turn left you can go through the parking lot In my state this is explicitly illegal. You may not use a parking lot as a thoroughfare, regardless of convenience.
xvector 6y ago
Though geofenced, Waymo actually does have fully autonomous driving working already. Waymo also has the sum total of CAPTCHA learning for them. Tesla is trying to solve a much more difficult problem. It’s unclear if they will.
- morpheos137 6y ago
  Waymo is a joke outside a trained, geofenced area. It is fascinating to me how a company went from gee we can index search results and sell ads to we can solve one of the hardest general automation problems in the world.
  - notJim 6y ago
    I think Google are basically just the funders, the actual leaders on the project seem to be engineers with strong AI backgrounds.
    - morpheos137 6y ago
      AI does not exist.
      - olaf 6y ago
        AI exists, but not necessarily Artificial Intelligence.
        morpheos137 6y ago
        As a marketing term yeah.
  - tzs 6y ago
    It’s not the same people there doing search and doing self-driving.
  - AlotOfReading 6y ago
    It's not designed to work without the map/geofence, so why is this your critique? Do you also judge fish for their crappy tree climbing?
jeffbee 6y ago
How can they be at the forefront of this field? A driverless Waymo will come and pick you up from in front of the Costco in Scottsdale AZ, right now. This Tesla can't do anything unsupervised. Of all the self-driving companies it is likely that Tesla is dead last, behind Waymo, Cruise, Aurora, and Zoox.
- rainyMammoth 6y ago
  It is outright scary how many Tesla fanboys think that Tesla are at the front of the pack. How much Koolaid can you drink without even checking what the experts in those industries are saying?
  - rnantes 6y ago
    Haha I know. So many people think it is fully autonomous too.
- saberience 6y ago
  Why can't the same Waymo come and pick me up on 5th Avenue in Manhattan?
  - jeffbee 6y ago
    Not sure if serious, but it is against New York law. That might not be the only reason, or even the main reason, but it remains a reason.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
afavour 6y ago
> If Tesla turns out to not be capable of deliver FSD, it's a straightforward class action to refund everyone. And possibly a few deaths, yeah.
rainyMammoth 6y ago
They definitely are not. Anyone working in this industry overwhelmingly agrees that Tesla is far behind the well established self-driving car companies (Waymo, Cruise, ...) mainly because they continue to rely on cameras only (and not lidars)
- Geee 6y ago
  What are you talking about? Autonomity with vision only is way more advanced. Lidars are useless when vision is solved.
  - xvector 6y ago
    Solving vision is an incredibly difficult problem that is made harder by the lack of stereoscopic cameras. There is fundamentally no need to rely on vision alone other than bragging rights. It provides almost no practical benefit.
    - rainyMammoth 6y ago
      I think (and hope?) that the parent comment was sarcastic.
      - camjohnson26 6y ago
        It’s a common talking point, I doubt that comment was sarcastic. Musk has said that he thinks Lidar is useless because humans operate vehicles with just vision, which of course is an unfair comparison since humans have intelligence to help them.
        pclmulqdq 6y ago
        This has always been a ridiculous argument. Human eyes have a much higher contrast ratio than commercial cameras, and have built-in stereoscopic capabilities with some degree of rangefinding thanks to the fact that they are quickly adjustable. Normal cameras have none of that.
mamon 6y ago
There is some data suggesting that Waymo cars might avoid collisions better than humans https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/8/22315361/waymo-autonomous-vehicle-simulation-car-crash-deaths https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/8/22315361/waymo-autonomous-... Meanwhile, Tesla autopilot accelerates towards the walls or parked vehicles. Tell me again how Tesla is "at the forefront in the field".

xkeysc0re 6y ago

>If Tesla turns out to not be capable of deliver FSD, it's a straightforward class action to refund everyone. The reality distortion field in action. "Hey no big deal they're straight up lying to consumers and putting their lives in danger!"

ra7 6y ago

> Still they are at the forefront in the field. IMO in the same ballpark as Waymo. They are nowhere near Waymo, who is doing actually driverless rides for the public. Tesla's confidence level is still at "you need to keep your hands on the wheel at all times".

mac01021 6y ago
I have questions about Waymo's taxi service. I'm certain that they occasionally run into situations that require human intervention, or at least need to be prepared for such an eventuality (see examples below). In such scenarios, what happens? The passenger operates the car? A remote operator takes controls? The car refuses to move and becomes a hazard or causes congestion? For example, you come up to a 4-way intersection and a traffic cop there signals you to stop and says you can't go through because all the man-hole covers are off, but since you want to turn left you can go through the parking lot of the corner gas station to get onto the other road. For another example, right after the st-patrick's day parade is over or right after the college town's team has just won the NCAA championship, the street is full of people and the car has to inch forward at a rate of half of a mile per hour and the pedestrians don't get out of the way until the car is about to touch them.
- ra7 6y ago
  In the scenarios you described, a remote operator would "help" the car. They've specifically said remote operators can't control or joystick the car, but can "answer questions" which I take it to mean plot a different course. It can also pull over at a safe spot and not get stuck in the middle of an intersection, though nobody has run into this issue to test it from the videos I've watched. The examples you gave sound like scenarios where remote operator would instruct "don't go there, go here" and the car does it by itself. But specifically about the traffic cop, it can actually detect hand signals from them (can't find the video though).
- ycombobreaker 6y ago
  > since you want to turn left you can go through the parking lot In my state this is explicitly illegal. You may not use a parking lot as a thoroughfare, regardless of convenience.

xvector 6y ago

Though geofenced, Waymo actually does have fully autonomous driving working already. Waymo also has the sum total of CAPTCHA learning for them. Tesla is trying to solve a much more difficult problem. It’s unclear if they will.

morpheos137 6y ago
Waymo is a joke outside a trained, geofenced area. It is fascinating to me how a company went from gee we can index search results and sell ads to we can solve one of the hardest general automation problems in the world.
- notJim 6y ago
  I think Google are basically just the funders, the actual leaders on the project seem to be engineers with strong AI backgrounds.
  - morpheos137 6y ago
    AI does not exist.
    - olaf 6y ago
      AI exists, but not necessarily Artificial Intelligence.
      - morpheos137 6y ago
        As a marketing term yeah.
- tzs 6y ago
  It’s not the same people there doing search and doing self-driving.
- AlotOfReading 6y ago
  It's not designed to work without the map/geofence, so why is this your critique? Do you also judge fish for their crappy tree climbing?

jeffbee 6y ago

How can they be at the forefront of this field? A driverless Waymo will come and pick you up from in front of the Costco in Scottsdale AZ, right now. This Tesla can't do anything unsupervised. Of all the self-driving companies it is likely that Tesla is dead last, behind Waymo, Cruise, Aurora, and Zoox.

rainyMammoth 6y ago
It is outright scary how many Tesla fanboys think that Tesla are at the front of the pack. How much Koolaid can you drink without even checking what the experts in those industries are saying?
- rnantes 6y ago
  Haha I know. So many people think it is fully autonomous too.
saberience 6y ago
Why can't the same Waymo come and pick me up on 5th Avenue in Manhattan?
- jeffbee 6y ago
  Not sure if serious, but it is against New York law. That might not be the only reason, or even the main reason, but it remains a reason.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]

afavour 6y ago

> If Tesla turns out to not be capable of deliver FSD, it's a straightforward class action to refund everyone. And possibly a few deaths, yeah.

rainyMammoth 6y ago

They definitely are not. Anyone working in this industry overwhelmingly agrees that Tesla is far behind the well established self-driving car companies (Waymo, Cruise, ...) mainly because they continue to rely on cameras only (and not lidars)

Geee 6y ago
What are you talking about? Autonomity with vision only is way more advanced. Lidars are useless when vision is solved.
- xvector 6y ago
  Solving vision is an incredibly difficult problem that is made harder by the lack of stereoscopic cameras. There is fundamentally no need to rely on vision alone other than bragging rights. It provides almost no practical benefit.
  - rainyMammoth 6y ago
    I think (and hope?) that the parent comment was sarcastic.
    - camjohnson26 6y ago
      It’s a common talking point, I doubt that comment was sarcastic. Musk has said that he thinks Lidar is useless because humans operate vehicles with just vision, which of course is an unfair comparison since humans have intelligence to help them.
      - pclmulqdq 6y ago
        This has always been a ridiculous argument. Human eyes have a much higher contrast ratio than commercial cameras, and have built-in stereoscopic capabilities with some degree of rangefinding thanks to the fact that they are quickly adjustable. Normal cameras have none of that.

mamon 6y ago

There is some data suggesting that Waymo cars might avoid collisions better than humans https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/8/22315361/waymo-autonomous-vehicle-simulation-car-crash-deaths https://www.theverge.com/2021/3/8/22315361/waymo-autonomous-... Meanwhile, Tesla autopilot accelerates towards the walls or parked vehicles. Tell me again how Tesla is "at the forefront in the field".