6 ms·

>seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? A weaker varient of a disease often just is the vaccine.

by s_dev 6y ago

>seems the answer is to genetically engineer a weak variant with a bigger reproduction and let it rip? A weaker varient of a disease often just is the vaccine. As for letting her rip? I'd imagine the concern is future mutations that the vaccine can't surpress with it bouncing between people.

a-dub 6y ago
yes but we are unable to vaccinate fast enough. virus is n^2, vaccine is n you cannot beat exponential growth with linear growth
- varajelle 6y ago
  Where did you get that virus is n^2 ? If I'd have to guess, I'd say it is O(R^n)
  - a-dub 6y ago
    it's tempting to think that, but no, in the simple non-mutating case, the exponent is fixed. the growth rate is exponential but the exponent does not grow with spread. they say the exponent ranges from 2-5 for covid, and drops with mitigation methods. that seems to clearly put it in n^2 to me. that said, the mitigations do cause the exponent to fluctuate... and in countries where people are willing to cooperate it has dropped below 1 and the epidemic has been mitigated. it is possible that this is actually a case calling where asymptotic analysis is inappropriate and in fact you have to resort to the raw data and measurement. now that i think of it though, if you allow for mutations that are more infectious, then the exponent is not fixed and increases with spread... yikes.
    - varajelle 6y ago
      I'm somehow still not convinced by your explanation. What exactly is N and what exactly is this measuring. I thought that N was a time period, and that the equation is something like Infected count = O(R^t) But apparently you mean that N is the number of infection? And what are you measuring? ??? = O(n^R) Where the ??? is also linear with the amount of people vaccinated?
- nradov 6y ago
  If viral infections actually followed am exponential growth curve then we would be close to 100% infections by now. Obviously that hasn't happened. In reality infections generally follow a logistic curve, in which only the very early part approximates an exponential curve.
- jccooper 6y ago
  Sure, except that's it's already happened. The US currently has something like twice as many vaccinated as recorded infections, with vaccination growing at something like 5x the rate of infections.

by s_dev 6y ago

a-dub 6y ago

yes but we are unable to vaccinate fast enough. virus is n^2, vaccine is n you cannot beat exponential growth with linear growth

varajelle 6y ago
Where did you get that virus is n^2 ? If I'd have to guess, I'd say it is O(R^n)
- a-dub 6y ago
  it's tempting to think that, but no, in the simple non-mutating case, the exponent is fixed. the growth rate is exponential but the exponent does not grow with spread. they say the exponent ranges from 2-5 for covid, and drops with mitigation methods. that seems to clearly put it in n^2 to me. that said, the mitigations do cause the exponent to fluctuate... and in countries where people are willing to cooperate it has dropped below 1 and the epidemic has been mitigated. it is possible that this is actually a case calling where asymptotic analysis is inappropriate and in fact you have to resort to the raw data and measurement. now that i think of it though, if you allow for mutations that are more infectious, then the exponent is not fixed and increases with spread... yikes.
  - varajelle 6y ago
    I'm somehow still not convinced by your explanation. What exactly is N and what exactly is this measuring. I thought that N was a time period, and that the equation is something like Infected count = O(R^t) But apparently you mean that N is the number of infection? And what are you measuring? ??? = O(n^R) Where the ??? is also linear with the amount of people vaccinated?
nradov 6y ago
If viral infections actually followed am exponential growth curve then we would be close to 100% infections by now. Obviously that hasn't happened. In reality infections generally follow a logistic curve, in which only the very early part approximates an exponential curve.
jccooper 6y ago
Sure, except that's it's already happened. The US currently has something like twice as many vaccinated as recorded infections, with vaccination growing at something like 5x the rate of infections.