4 ms·

40 out of 17 million is 0.0002%. Surely 0.0002% of any cohort go on to develop blood clots? I'd certainly pick those odds over being unvaccinated.

marvin 6y ago
If the risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000, which would be on the conservative side if the observations from Norway are correct, it's not a clear-cut question in a country with low incidence of Covid. Especially if other vaccines are available with a small delay. The British tool for calculating covid risk puts risk of death as 1 in 500.000 for a healthy 25-year old, and risk of hospital admission as 1 in 13.000. Must also add to this the public's willingness to vaccinate in the face of these numbers, both now and in the future. It's a shifting of risk from high-risk groups to low-risk groups.
- BrianOnHN 6y ago
  > risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000 It's more like 1 in 500,000.
  - lyschoening 6y ago
    The numbers are three healthcare workers out of 120,000 vaccinated in Norway, with one death, so the risk is 1 in 40,000 from what we know. On top of that we can speculate that healthcare workers are more likely to seek treatment than the average vaccine recipient and they are healthy adults of average age.
    - BrianOnHN 6y ago
      That's an odd sample to use unless you have some sort of agenda. The 40 out of 17MM is much more statistically significant.
      - Daho0n 6y ago
        If you give a vaccine to 17 million people and 40 of those are children and all 40 children dies then should we just ignore that fact because the "40 out of 17MM is much more statistically significant"? Of course not.
        BrianOnHN 6y ago
        That's the epitome of a gross exaggeration.
    - sydd 6y ago
      Everyone would seek treatment, the clotting has like a 40% fatality rate.
contravariant 6y ago
If you read more closely you'll notice they're talking about a particular kind of thrombosis[1] which is accompanied by low platelet counts. This particular symptom is usually sign of a particular autoimmune response and has an incidence of about 4-5 per million people per year. [1]: <warning, contains images of heavy bruising> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombotic_thrombocytopenic_purpura#Autoimmune https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombotic_thrombocytopenic_pu...
- dekhn 6y ago
  so basically, base rate fallacy strikes agan.

marvin 6y ago

If the risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000, which would be on the conservative side if the observations from Norway are correct, it's not a clear-cut question in a country with low incidence of Covid. Especially if other vaccines are available with a small delay. The British tool for calculating covid risk puts risk of death as 1 in 500.000 for a healthy 25-year old, and risk of hospital admission as 1 in 13.000. Must also add to this the public's willingness to vaccinate in the face of these numbers, both now and in the future. It's a shifting of risk from high-risk groups to low-risk groups.

BrianOnHN 6y ago
> risk turns out to be 1 in 50.000 It's more like 1 in 500,000.
- lyschoening 6y ago
  The numbers are three healthcare workers out of 120,000 vaccinated in Norway, with one death, so the risk is 1 in 40,000 from what we know. On top of that we can speculate that healthcare workers are more likely to seek treatment than the average vaccine recipient and they are healthy adults of average age.
  - BrianOnHN 6y ago
    That's an odd sample to use unless you have some sort of agenda. The 40 out of 17MM is much more statistically significant.
    - Daho0n 6y ago
      If you give a vaccine to 17 million people and 40 of those are children and all 40 children dies then should we just ignore that fact because the "40 out of 17MM is much more statistically significant"? Of course not.
      - BrianOnHN 6y ago
        That's the epitome of a gross exaggeration.
  - sydd 6y ago
    Everyone would seek treatment, the clotting has like a 40% fatality rate.

contravariant 6y ago

If you read more closely you'll notice they're talking about a particular kind of thrombosis[1] which is accompanied by low platelet counts. This particular symptom is usually sign of a particular autoimmune response and has an incidence of about 4-5 per million people per year. [1]: <warning, contains images of heavy bruising> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombotic_thrombocytopenic_purpura#Autoimmune https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thrombotic_thrombocytopenic_pu...

dekhn 6y ago
so basically, base rate fallacy strikes agan.