9 ms·

Sort of the theme with Covid ultimately. I’m curious who will have the guts to re-examine the global shutdown as an exaggerated reaction as we go forward.

afavour 6y ago
40 cases of blood clots (and 0 confirmed deaths) in 17 million 538K confirmed deaths in 328 million (the US population) They really aren't comparable. EDIT: see replies below for details about deaths connected to the clots. I take that back. But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine.
- YinglingLight 6y ago
  It's financially lucrative for a hospital to have COVID deaths.
- lemmonii 6y ago
  Did you read the article? The Norwegians claim that one of the health workers died.
  - afavour 6y ago
    I meant to write “confirmed deaths”, sorry. Updated my comment. “confirmed” might seem like nitpicking but it’s widely speculated that the actual death count for COVID is much higher than the confirmed number too.
- bewaretheirs 6y ago
  7 cases in Germany, with 3 deaths. Patients were aged 20 to 50 years. https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-informs-temporary-suspension-vaccination-astra-zeneca.html https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-infor... https://www.pei.de/EN/service/faq/coronavirus/faq-coronavirus-node.html?cms_tabcounter=3 https://www.pei.de/EN/service/faq/coronavirus/faq-coronaviru...
  - afavour 6y ago
    Thanks, I’ve updated my comment. I still believe my original point stands.
    - bewaretheirs 6y ago
      so what's puzzling is that the fatality rate from this complication is so high in Germany (3 of 7) where it's so much lower in the US and UK. Pausing vaccination with the AZ vaccine in Germany doesn't seem like an overreaction. At the very least, reviewing & communicating best practices for detecting and treating this would be in order.
- hvidgaard 6y ago
  I think it's even more nuanced than that. The people suffering issues here are young people that would otherwise probably not die or have serious long term effects of Covid-19. People are going to think "Why should I risk death, even if it's just a relatively small risk?"
- chithanh 6y ago
  > But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine. It is worth breaking that down by age, sex, and other risk factors. For an 80 year old male obese smoker, who lives in a country with high COVID-19 rates, I have no problem believing that COVID-19 is more dangerous than the AstraZeneca vaccine. For a 25 year old female with no comorbidities, who lives in a country with low COVID-19 rates, this is much less clear and will now have to be determined statistically.
  - 5cents 6y ago
    In Norway, five women below 50 years have died of COVID-19 (in total) and one from the vaccine Source (in English): https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/daily-reports/daily-reports-COVID19/ https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/dai...
    - chithanh 6y ago
      But did these women have any comorbidities?
      - kwhitefoot 6y ago
        The sample is so small that even if they did it wouldn't be possible to say anything definitive about any possible connection. The death rate here in Norway is minuscule compared to the UK, US, France, etc.
- macinjosh 6y ago
  > 538K confirmed deaths in 328 million (the US population) That is a hugely inflated numbers. For example, people who died in motorcycle accidents who tested positive for COVID at the time are counted in that total. It may be useful to the CDC to count that way but it is not an accurate number to show how dangerous COVID actually is. Flu death statistics are way down this year. Did the flu magically disappear this year? I doubt it. Almost all respiratory infections were counted as COVID out of an abundance of caution. Yes, COVID is dangerous. However, the count that is published is way over stated.
  - gredrotino 6y ago
    This is not necessarily the case, and based on excess mortality data if the number is off it is most likely under reported (look at the senior home reporting in NY state and the reluctance of certain states, like Flordia, to openly share this data). In the case of the motorcycle accident: the man was in a crash and hospitalized for over a week where he died of COVID related respiratory failure. While he would not have been in the hospital had it not been for the accident, had it not been for COVID he very well may have survived his time there. Regarding the Flu, it is way down this year precisely because of the measures that have been taken for COVID. It is less transmissible than COVID, so it stands to reason that it would die out during a time when most people are taking precautions to prevent the spread of a more transmissible virus.
  - jcranmer 6y ago
    This canard is still being trailed out? Excess death counts are available, and they are even higher than the COVID death counts, suggesting that the official count may actually be an underestimate of total fatalities. However, the claim that that it is "way over stated" is not borne out by the actual statistics.
    - macinjosh 6y ago
      Your only response to the well known fact that the data has flaws [0,1] is more unspecified statistics. Why should I put any trust in those if I know the death count statistic has clear flaws? I'd rather our society not be directed based on easily manipulated statistics. It cloaks hidden agendas behind the guise of science and math which is dishonest. [0]: https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronavirus-counting-deaths-fatalities/ https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronav... [1]: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questi...
maxerickson 6y ago
What global shutdown though?
groby_b 6y ago
I'm fully for that. And when we find out that a hard lockdown would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, I hope we'll also have the guts to lock up the people who advocated against it, simply to further political goals. And try them for murder.
- runawaybottle 6y ago
  Let’s do it. And, if you are wrong (just the people that really couldn’t paint Covid into it’s proper form and let it metastasize into a boogeyman disease), tax everyone to help pay for all the businesses that had to close or people that had to lose jobs.
- logicchains 6y ago
  How about trying for murder the people who advocated the global "soft" lockdown that plunged hundreds of millions of people in poor countries into poverty (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-million-extreme-poor-by-2021 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/c...) and killed hundreds of thousands of children (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-childr...), just to increase the life expectancy of their 80 year old grandparents by a year or two.
  - BrianOnHN 6y ago
    "But the children..."
  - jansan 6y ago
    It did not even, or only marginally, increase the live expectancy of the over 80 year old.
  - sofixa 6y ago
    How about trying for murder the people who advocated that the economy is more important and killed thousands of people through negligence? We can never know due to the vast array of different variables involved, but to say what Brazil is going through, or what some US states went through, and the associated death toll is somehow better than a lockdown seems a very weird take. When thousands are sick, and hospitals are full, medical personnel is stretched to their limits, nobody can get intensive care, regardless of age. Poverty is a serious issue that needs to be tackled, but ignoring direct and indirect deaths due to Covid is simply wrong.
adrr 6y ago
I think the it will be shown the countries who took it seriously are going to winners both in terms in deaths, long term care for long haulers and economy. Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus.
- logicchains 6y ago
  >Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus. The biggest "Asian" countries excluding China, Japan and Korea, didn't have hard lockdowns like in New York or California (Japan's constitution didn't even allow it), just voluntary social distancing and early closure recommendations, and effective contact tracing. China had lockdowns but it's economic numbers are extremely unreliable.
  - blululu 6y ago
    Hard vs Soft lock down is maybe a difficult distinction. Excluding China, Korea and Japan is a lot but Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Singapore all had lockdowns that were stricter (more observed and more enforced) than anything in California. Of course a lockdown has less impact when it is not really enforced (California) and you could make the case that near universal mask wearing has been a bigger boost to most Asian countries’s efforts to stop Covid-19.
    - lwjwrehljkewr 6y ago
      fuck you
- timr 6y ago
  > Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus. This is an exaggeration, at best. There may have been countries that grew in the latter part of 2020, but to characterize these as "booming" is misleading. Japan had its first economic contraction since 2009 (down 4.8% over 2019). They've been flirting with deflation throughout 2020. And they're one of the countries with the lightest responses. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56066065#:~:text=Japan's%20economy%20surged%20in%20the,the%20same%20period%20in%202019 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56066065#:~:text=Japan's%2.... Developing countries in Asia are no better off: "ADB said GDP in developing Asia will contract 0.7% this year and three-fourths of the region’s economies are set to register negative growth for 2020. That includes countries like Singapore, Thailand, India and the Philippines. China, where the coronavirus outbreak was first reported in late-December, is the only country that is expected to register a positive growth, albeit far below normal levels of growth." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/adb-2020-outlook-most-asian-economies-are-headed-for-contraction.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/adb-2020-outlook-most-asian-...
proc0 6y ago
Have zero faith in the current generations that are adults. It will have to be future generations that can think clearly without judgement.
- AnimalMuppet 6y ago
  How are you going to get those future generations to think clearly without judgment? The same things that afflict the thinking of the current adults will afflict the next generations when they are adults.
  - proc0 6y ago
    Agreed, I have more faith in upcoming generations, albeit risk is still there.

afavour 6y ago

40 cases of blood clots (and 0 confirmed deaths) in 17 million 538K confirmed deaths in 328 million (the US population) They really aren't comparable. EDIT: see replies below for details about deaths connected to the clots. I take that back. But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine.

YinglingLight 6y ago
It's financially lucrative for a hospital to have COVID deaths.
lemmonii 6y ago
Did you read the article? The Norwegians claim that one of the health workers died.
- afavour 6y ago
  I meant to write “confirmed deaths”, sorry. Updated my comment. “confirmed” might seem like nitpicking but it’s widely speculated that the actual death count for COVID is much higher than the confirmed number too.
bewaretheirs 6y ago
7 cases in Germany, with 3 deaths. Patients were aged 20 to 50 years. https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-informs-temporary-suspension-vaccination-astra-zeneca.html https://www.pei.de/EN/newsroom/hp-news/2021/210315-pei-infor... https://www.pei.de/EN/service/faq/coronavirus/faq-coronavirus-node.html?cms_tabcounter=3 https://www.pei.de/EN/service/faq/coronavirus/faq-coronaviru...
- afavour 6y ago
  Thanks, I’ve updated my comment. I still believe my original point stands.
  - bewaretheirs 6y ago
    so what's puzzling is that the fatality rate from this complication is so high in Germany (3 of 7) where it's so much lower in the US and UK. Pausing vaccination with the AZ vaccine in Germany doesn't seem like an overreaction. At the very least, reviewing & communicating best practices for detecting and treating this would be in order.
hvidgaard 6y ago
I think it's even more nuanced than that. The people suffering issues here are young people that would otherwise probably not die or have serious long term effects of Covid-19. People are going to think "Why should I risk death, even if it's just a relatively small risk?"
chithanh 6y ago
> But my general point still stands, COVID is far, far more dangerous than the vaccine. It is worth breaking that down by age, sex, and other risk factors. For an 80 year old male obese smoker, who lives in a country with high COVID-19 rates, I have no problem believing that COVID-19 is more dangerous than the AstraZeneca vaccine. For a 25 year old female with no comorbidities, who lives in a country with low COVID-19 rates, this is much less clear and will now have to be determined statistically.
- 5cents 6y ago
  In Norway, five women below 50 years have died of COVID-19 (in total) and one from the vaccine Source (in English): https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/daily-reports/daily-reports-COVID19/ https://www.fhi.no/en/id/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/dai...
  - chithanh 6y ago
    But did these women have any comorbidities?
    - kwhitefoot 6y ago
      The sample is so small that even if they did it wouldn't be possible to say anything definitive about any possible connection. The death rate here in Norway is minuscule compared to the UK, US, France, etc.
macinjosh 6y ago
> 538K confirmed deaths in 328 million (the US population) That is a hugely inflated numbers. For example, people who died in motorcycle accidents who tested positive for COVID at the time are counted in that total. It may be useful to the CDC to count that way but it is not an accurate number to show how dangerous COVID actually is. Flu death statistics are way down this year. Did the flu magically disappear this year? I doubt it. Almost all respiratory infections were counted as COVID out of an abundance of caution. Yes, COVID is dangerous. However, the count that is published is way over stated.
- gredrotino 6y ago
  This is not necessarily the case, and based on excess mortality data if the number is off it is most likely under reported (look at the senior home reporting in NY state and the reluctance of certain states, like Flordia, to openly share this data). In the case of the motorcycle accident: the man was in a crash and hospitalized for over a week where he died of COVID related respiratory failure. While he would not have been in the hospital had it not been for the accident, had it not been for COVID he very well may have survived his time there. Regarding the Flu, it is way down this year precisely because of the measures that have been taken for COVID. It is less transmissible than COVID, so it stands to reason that it would die out during a time when most people are taking precautions to prevent the spread of a more transmissible virus.
- jcranmer 6y ago
  This canard is still being trailed out? Excess death counts are available, and they are even higher than the COVID death counts, suggesting that the official count may actually be an underestimate of total fatalities. However, the claim that that it is "way over stated" is not borne out by the actual statistics.
  - macinjosh 6y ago
    Your only response to the well known fact that the data has flaws [0,1] is more unspecified statistics. Why should I put any trust in those if I know the death count statistic has clear flaws? I'd rather our society not be directed based on easily manipulated statistics. It cloaks hidden agendas behind the guise of science and math which is dishonest. [0]: https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronavirus-counting-deaths-fatalities/ https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/15/colorado-covid-coronav... [1]: https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questions-raised-after-fatal-motorcycle-crash-listed-as-covid-19-death https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/fox-35-investigates-questi...

maxerickson 6y ago

What global shutdown though?

groby_b 6y ago

I'm fully for that. And when we find out that a hard lockdown would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives, I hope we'll also have the guts to lock up the people who advocated against it, simply to further political goals. And try them for murder.

runawaybottle 6y ago
Let’s do it. And, if you are wrong (just the people that really couldn’t paint Covid into it’s proper form and let it metastasize into a boogeyman disease), tax everyone to help pay for all the businesses that had to close or people that had to lose jobs.
logicchains 6y ago
How about trying for murder the people who advocated the global "soft" lockdown that plunged hundreds of millions of people in poor countries into poverty (https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/covid-19-to-add-as-many-as-150-million-extreme-poor-by-2021 https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/10/07/c...) and killed hundreds of thousands of children (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-children-un-idUSKBN21Y2X7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-childr...), just to increase the life expectancy of their 80 year old grandparents by a year or two.
- BrianOnHN 6y ago
  "But the children..."
- jansan 6y ago
  It did not even, or only marginally, increase the live expectancy of the over 80 year old.
- sofixa 6y ago
  How about trying for murder the people who advocated that the economy is more important and killed thousands of people through negligence? We can never know due to the vast array of different variables involved, but to say what Brazil is going through, or what some US states went through, and the associated death toll is somehow better than a lockdown seems a very weird take. When thousands are sick, and hospitals are full, medical personnel is stretched to their limits, nobody can get intensive care, regardless of age. Poverty is a serious issue that needs to be tackled, but ignoring direct and indirect deaths due to Covid is simply wrong.

adrr 6y ago

I think the it will be shown the countries who took it seriously are going to winners both in terms in deaths, long term care for long haulers and economy. Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus.

logicchains 6y ago
>Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus. The biggest "Asian" countries excluding China, Japan and Korea, didn't have hard lockdowns like in New York or California (Japan's constitution didn't even allow it), just voluntary social distancing and early closure recommendations, and effective contact tracing. China had lockdowns but it's economic numbers are extremely unreliable.
- blululu 6y ago
  Hard vs Soft lock down is maybe a difficult distinction. Excluding China, Korea and Japan is a lot but Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan and Singapore all had lockdowns that were stricter (more observed and more enforced) than anything in California. Of course a lockdown has less impact when it is not really enforced (California) and you could make the case that near universal mask wearing has been a bigger boost to most Asian countries’s efforts to stop Covid-19.
  - lwjwrehljkewr 6y ago
    fuck you
timr 6y ago
> Asians countries are booming since their economy wasn't affected because the stringent lock downs controlled the virus. This is an exaggeration, at best. There may have been countries that grew in the latter part of 2020, but to characterize these as "booming" is misleading. Japan had its first economic contraction since 2009 (down 4.8% over 2019). They've been flirting with deflation throughout 2020. And they're one of the countries with the lightest responses. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56066065#:~:text=Japan's%20economy%20surged%20in%20the,the%20same%20period%20in%202019 https://www.bbc.com/news/business-56066065#:~:text=Japan's%2.... Developing countries in Asia are no better off: "ADB said GDP in developing Asia will contract 0.7% this year and three-fourths of the region’s economies are set to register negative growth for 2020. That includes countries like Singapore, Thailand, India and the Philippines. China, where the coronavirus outbreak was first reported in late-December, is the only country that is expected to register a positive growth, albeit far below normal levels of growth." https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/adb-2020-outlook-most-asian-economies-are-headed-for-contraction.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/15/adb-2020-outlook-most-asian-...

proc0 6y ago

Have zero faith in the current generations that are adults. It will have to be future generations that can think clearly without judgement.

AnimalMuppet 6y ago
How are you going to get those future generations to think clearly without judgment? The same things that afflict the thinking of the current adults will afflict the next generations when they are adults.
- proc0 6y ago
  Agreed, I have more faith in upcoming generations, albeit risk is still there.