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HN isn’t wrong about everything. It was extremely bearing on Groupon in 2011. It was another thing where true believers would say that skeptics “just don’t get

by graeme 6y ago

HN isn’t wrong about everything. It was extremely bearing on Groupon in 2011. It was another thing where true believers would say that skeptics “just don’t get it”, but the HN critics had extremely cogent critiques that went without response. Google “Groupon Stock”, HN was very correct. VERY different from the anti-Dropbox sentiment of the famous Dropbox comment. You also have Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Nassim Taleb, Nouriel Roubini, all claiming Bitcoin is worthless. Some of the brightest minds in finance with impeccable and long track records. Bitcoin has had 12 years and still has no real world use cases. By contrast the internet was instantly useful. Bitcoin has a monstrous cost in energy and money to maintain the network. The token backing BTC, Tether, is founded by con artists and was just revealed to not have had the backing they claim. BTC has been subjected to the same money money printing its advocates defy in fiat. —— Check the results for Groupon: https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ei=7H1SYMDVJKiYwbkPvqiEgAc&q=groupon+stock&oq=groupon+sto&gs_lcp=ChNtb2JpbGUtZ3dzLXdpei1zZXJwEAEYADIICAAQsQMQgwEyAggAMgIIADICCAAyAggAMgIIADICCAAyBQgAEMkDOgQIABBHOgUIABCxAzoECAAQQ1CFD1i7FmCZHGgAcAF4AIABqQGIAb8DkgEDMi4ymAEAoAEByAEIwAEB&sclient=mobile-gws-wiz-serp https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ei=7H1SYMDVJKiYwbkPvqiEg...

hnrodey 6y ago
I'm not here to defend Bitcoin nor respond to critiques. Just not what I'm in to. Full disclosure, I have a financial stake in Bitcoin. My observation on all of this is that the most common themes to bear Bitcoin - can all be fixed! People are quite happy to look at the current landscape and proclaim immediate and indefinite failure. Detractors allow no room for growth. Volatility - you could argue that Bitcoin is still so young that the market is trying to determine it's worth. I estimate that Bitcoin is significantly less volatile at some point in the future. Real world use cases - currently I agree, I don't see a great use of it ... yet. I think we'll find something. Energy, sure okay it uses a lot of energy. Is this less problematic is most of the energy is sourced from renewables (now or in the future)? Certainly it's also possible that the protocol is updated to be more energy efficient, or another coin reigns supreme.
- ALittleLight 6y ago
  I've doubted bitcoin for years, and continue to. Part of me realizes I was wrong, in the sense that I would've made money had I only bought and held - but I can't bring myself to buy something that doesn't work. I can't use it as currency due to transaction fees and times. "Store of value" is basically the same thing as "Ponzi scheme" as far as I can tell. I would've made money, but...
  - ev0lv 6y ago
    >but I can't bring myself to buy something that doesn't work. Doesn't that also describe most stocks that do not have dividends? What is their tangible value?
- graeme 6y ago
  I didn’t mention volatility. I said Bitcoin’s current run up is backed by massive fraud.
- dodobirdlord 6y ago
  > Certainly it's also possible that the protocol is updated to be more energy efficient, or another coin reigns supreme. It’s essentially impossible that the protocol gets updated in any way at all. Even the most trivial of changes like trying to increase the block size went nowhere. Bitcoin has thoroughly fossilized, so I’m immediately skeptical of the intentions of Bitcoin evangelists.
- lmm 6y ago
  > My observation on all of this is that the most common themes to bear Bitcoin - can all be fixed! People are quite happy to look at the current landscape and proclaim immediate and indefinite failure. Detractors allow no room for growth. On the contrary, I've been watching bitcoin for what, ten years now, and if anything the practical usability has gone backwards. Sellers who trumpeted that they were accepting bitcoin payments quietly dropped it a few years later. Transaction fees rose and rose, and the governance process (such as there is) handled the resulting conflicts remarkably poorly. Five or ten years ago I was skeptical but interested. Nowadays I see it as a de facto scam, even if it didn't start life as one.
matheusmoreira 6y ago
> The token backing BTC, Tether, is founded by con artists and was just revealed to not have had the backing they claim. USDT doesn't back BTC. It's just a stable coin people use. There are other coins tracking the dollar. Binance created their own BUSD and it seems to be as legit as it gets with frequent audits of reserves and everything. There's also USDC. BTC is actually backed by the eletricity used to power the computers that mine it. The expensive computations guarantee its scarcity.
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > BTC is actually backed by the eletricity used to power the computers that mine it. I'm not sure what "backed" means in this context. My electric bill is "backed" by the municipality I live in.
- graeme 6y ago
  About 70% of transactions are in USDT, and bitcoin’s price rise has followed increases in Tether tokens. It would appear the price surge has been backed by USDT because currently the bitcoin market accepts USDT as equal to USD, despite evidence USDT is not backed. Bitcoin itself is powered by the miners, but the fiat value of bitcoin is backed by USDT. If there was doubt about the peg you’d see a run.
  - matheusmoreira 6y ago
    > bitcoin’s price rise has followed increases in Tether tokens I understand this as price manipulation by Tether, not as evidence that BTC is backed by it. > currently the bitcoin market accepts USDT as equal to USD, despite evidence USDT is not backed Yeah, it's unfortunate. I don't understand why people won't use BUSD instead. > If there was doubt about the peg you’d see a run. Probably. In my opinion, people should exchange USDT for BUSD while it still has value. That way everyone will continue trading normally when all the controversy catches up to Tether.
    - graeme 6y ago
      > Probably. In my opinion, people should exchange USDT for BUSD while it still has value. That way everyone will continue trading normally when all the controversy catches up to Tether. This is sound advice for the individual but it doesn’t work for the market as a whole. I’m arguing Tether is a sham. When too many people try to get out of a sham, it collapses. Currently, 2/3rd of people who try to sell their BTC find USDT buyers. If Tether is revealed as a fraud suddenly the sell side will outweigh the buy side.
graeme 6y ago
Note: this should have said *bearish on Groupon
mlcrypto 6y ago
Groupon was never a $1T network. Neither was Myspace or any of the failed tech companies. BTC has won and it will only keep growing from here.
strogonoff 6y ago
Perhaps the hidden thesis in the comment you're replying to is that people vocally pile on BTC to try to keep its price down, meanwhile buying as much as they can so that they can sell when it spikes again. (Not a holder.)

by graeme 6y ago

hnrodey 6y ago

I'm not here to defend Bitcoin nor respond to critiques. Just not what I'm in to. Full disclosure, I have a financial stake in Bitcoin. My observation on all of this is that the most common themes to bear Bitcoin - can all be fixed! People are quite happy to look at the current landscape and proclaim immediate and indefinite failure. Detractors allow no room for growth. Volatility - you could argue that Bitcoin is still so young that the market is trying to determine it's worth. I estimate that Bitcoin is significantly less volatile at some point in the future. Real world use cases - currently I agree, I don't see a great use of it ... yet. I think we'll find something. Energy, sure okay it uses a lot of energy. Is this less problematic is most of the energy is sourced from renewables (now or in the future)? Certainly it's also possible that the protocol is updated to be more energy efficient, or another coin reigns supreme.

ALittleLight 6y ago
I've doubted bitcoin for years, and continue to. Part of me realizes I was wrong, in the sense that I would've made money had I only bought and held - but I can't bring myself to buy something that doesn't work. I can't use it as currency due to transaction fees and times. "Store of value" is basically the same thing as "Ponzi scheme" as far as I can tell. I would've made money, but...
- ev0lv 6y ago
  >but I can't bring myself to buy something that doesn't work. Doesn't that also describe most stocks that do not have dividends? What is their tangible value?
graeme 6y ago
I didn’t mention volatility. I said Bitcoin’s current run up is backed by massive fraud.
dodobirdlord 6y ago
> Certainly it's also possible that the protocol is updated to be more energy efficient, or another coin reigns supreme. It’s essentially impossible that the protocol gets updated in any way at all. Even the most trivial of changes like trying to increase the block size went nowhere. Bitcoin has thoroughly fossilized, so I’m immediately skeptical of the intentions of Bitcoin evangelists.
lmm 6y ago
> My observation on all of this is that the most common themes to bear Bitcoin - can all be fixed! People are quite happy to look at the current landscape and proclaim immediate and indefinite failure. Detractors allow no room for growth. On the contrary, I've been watching bitcoin for what, ten years now, and if anything the practical usability has gone backwards. Sellers who trumpeted that they were accepting bitcoin payments quietly dropped it a few years later. Transaction fees rose and rose, and the governance process (such as there is) handled the resulting conflicts remarkably poorly. Five or ten years ago I was skeptical but interested. Nowadays I see it as a de facto scam, even if it didn't start life as one.

matheusmoreira 6y ago

> The token backing BTC, Tether, is founded by con artists and was just revealed to not have had the backing they claim. USDT doesn't back BTC. It's just a stable coin people use. There are other coins tracking the dollar. Binance created their own BUSD and it seems to be as legit as it gets with frequent audits of reserves and everything. There's also USDC. BTC is actually backed by the eletricity used to power the computers that mine it. The expensive computations guarantee its scarcity.

Supermancho 6y ago
> BTC is actually backed by the eletricity used to power the computers that mine it. I'm not sure what "backed" means in this context. My electric bill is "backed" by the municipality I live in.
graeme 6y ago
About 70% of transactions are in USDT, and bitcoin’s price rise has followed increases in Tether tokens. It would appear the price surge has been backed by USDT because currently the bitcoin market accepts USDT as equal to USD, despite evidence USDT is not backed. Bitcoin itself is powered by the miners, but the fiat value of bitcoin is backed by USDT. If there was doubt about the peg you’d see a run.
- matheusmoreira 6y ago
  > bitcoin’s price rise has followed increases in Tether tokens I understand this as price manipulation by Tether, not as evidence that BTC is backed by it. > currently the bitcoin market accepts USDT as equal to USD, despite evidence USDT is not backed Yeah, it's unfortunate. I don't understand why people won't use BUSD instead. > If there was doubt about the peg you’d see a run. Probably. In my opinion, people should exchange USDT for BUSD while it still has value. That way everyone will continue trading normally when all the controversy catches up to Tether.
  - graeme 6y ago
    > Probably. In my opinion, people should exchange USDT for BUSD while it still has value. That way everyone will continue trading normally when all the controversy catches up to Tether. This is sound advice for the individual but it doesn’t work for the market as a whole. I’m arguing Tether is a sham. When too many people try to get out of a sham, it collapses. Currently, 2/3rd of people who try to sell their BTC find USDT buyers. If Tether is revealed as a fraud suddenly the sell side will outweigh the buy side.

graeme 6y ago

Note: this should have said *bearish on Groupon

mlcrypto 6y ago

Groupon was never a $1T network. Neither was Myspace or any of the failed tech companies. BTC has won and it will only keep growing from here.

strogonoff 6y ago

Perhaps the hidden thesis in the comment you're replying to is that people vocally pile on BTC to try to keep its price down, meanwhile buying as much as they can so that they can sell when it spikes again. (Not a holder.)