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I have very little long term faith in BTC at this point. It is effectively centralized, has limited capacity, outrageous fees when the network is busy, and then

I have very little long term faith in BTC at this point. It is effectively centralized, has limited capacity, outrageous fees when the network is busy, and then there are growing concerns over environmental impact...but I'm still holding on to my stash as the growing institutional momentum over the last year or so seems like it might have a significant positive influence on price, before BTC is eventually abandoned. It's a gamble but it wouldn't surprise me if we saw $100k at this point, might as well let it ride if you've locked in whatever you originally paid for it.

imtringued 6y ago
>It's a gamble but it wouldn't surprise me if we saw $100k at this point, might as well let it ride if you've locked in whatever you originally paid for it. I won't go into details but there is absolutely no way Bitcoin will go to $100k and stay there. Once it reaches that level the bubble will finally pop and we will get see lots of tears.
k1rcher 6y ago
100% agree with you on all points. As a valid replacement for currency, it is inherently flawed. As an investment? A very solid choice. Many seem to have difficulties differentiating between the the two distinct concepts, myself included.
- qeternity 6y ago
  > As an investment? A very solid choice. What’s the thesis?
  - zucked 6y ago
    Because it's still magic to retail investors, and as long as they don't see behind the curtain, they'll keep coming along in droves and inadvertently propping it up + pushing it higher.
  - tryonenow 6y ago
    Institutional and retail investors are just starting to pile on and there will be potentially massive gains to be had in the near to mid term before the bottom falls out. Long term? Probably not smart. Safe to get in now? Debatable, pretty high risk. But if you have a bunch of coins laying around and you're willing to gamble a bit longer...
    - qeternity 6y ago
      GBTC was trading at 15% discount to spot today... The institutional thesis is massively overblown. And retail isn’t piling in like in 2017.
      - perl4ever 6y ago
        There was an article I read on how arbitrage vs BTC was possible, despite it not being an ETF. I forget the details, it may have taken like 6 months to do the exchange for regulatory reasons. So professionals were making money while it was >BTC, until they overdid it and the premium went away. It seems reasonable to be patient because there's just a lot of lag in the system as it's currently set up. If you've ever paid attention to closed-end funds, you might have noticed how they can trade substantially over or under asset value for quite a while, but not forever.
        qeternity 6y ago
        There’s no arbitrage in the strict sense but basically it’s just a straight convergence trade without a delivery mechanism. Just need funding, which is abundant today.
        perl4ever 6y ago
        There's no arbitrage in what sense? The article I read that called it arbitrage described it like this: "[Hedge funds] borrow Bitcoin, deposit the coins with GBTC in exchange for shares that are more valuable than the coins they bought, and they pocket that profit by selling the marked-up shares after a six-month lockup period expires." Unlike an ETF though, the shares can't be destroyed. And suddenly the premium went away, so probably some of the people who were counting on it to remain have quit now.
  - k1rcher 6y ago
    That's a very good question, one that I don't have an answer to. "A very solid choice" was a very poor choice of phrasing. I was intending to generalize the reasoning behind the recent surges in value and popularity. My statement was more intended to be a critique on the current perception to the layman. I believe bitcoin and crypto as a whole should be looked on as a currency, rather than a get-quick-rich investment that absolutely anyone with a spare penny can leverage for their own profit.
  - raziel2701 6y ago
    Bank of America had this[1] to say: “No good reason to own BTC unless you see prices going up. .. it is not tied to inflation, and remains exceptionally volatile, making it impractical as a store of wealth or payments mechanism. As such, the main.. argument for holding Bitcoin is.. sheer price appreciation” I haven't found a reason in favor of owning btc other than "number go up". [1] https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1372129001251221511 https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/13721290012512215...
    - imtringued 6y ago
      If everyone were honest about this then we wouldn't have to rehash the same criticism over and over again. Bitcoin is still a better gamble than a lottery ticket and I won't blame anyone for feeling that way. I just hate seeing deception and misinformation and generally scammy behavior, basically anyone who wants to turn the lottery into a negative sum bet as opposed to a zero sum bet.
    - ChainOfFools 6y ago
      "number go up" when did this meme take over from its original incarnation "to the moooon!"?
      - spiralx 6y ago
        Shortly after the "money printer go brrr" meme took off I guess.
- dandanua 6y ago
  And what is Bitcoin value without it being used as a currency?
- kevinak 6y ago
  Why is it flawed as a currency?
frongpik 6y ago
Imo, the logic of most investors is "Can I afford to lose 5% of my wealth? Heck, I can lose 10%!" So all the rich with zillions in assets invest what they can afford to lose, those 10%, and hold. If the rich top 1% owns 50% of the entire world's assets, then such is the target price of bitcoin - 5% of everything. At the moment, this everything is $100T. This gives us what, 250K per btc? Multiplied by expected inflation, say 2x.

imtringued 6y ago

>It's a gamble but it wouldn't surprise me if we saw $100k at this point, might as well let it ride if you've locked in whatever you originally paid for it. I won't go into details but there is absolutely no way Bitcoin will go to $100k and stay there. Once it reaches that level the bubble will finally pop and we will get see lots of tears.

k1rcher 6y ago

100% agree with you on all points. As a valid replacement for currency, it is inherently flawed. As an investment? A very solid choice. Many seem to have difficulties differentiating between the the two distinct concepts, myself included.

qeternity 6y ago
> As an investment? A very solid choice. What’s the thesis?
- zucked 6y ago
  Because it's still magic to retail investors, and as long as they don't see behind the curtain, they'll keep coming along in droves and inadvertently propping it up + pushing it higher.
- tryonenow 6y ago
  Institutional and retail investors are just starting to pile on and there will be potentially massive gains to be had in the near to mid term before the bottom falls out. Long term? Probably not smart. Safe to get in now? Debatable, pretty high risk. But if you have a bunch of coins laying around and you're willing to gamble a bit longer...
  - qeternity 6y ago
    GBTC was trading at 15% discount to spot today... The institutional thesis is massively overblown. And retail isn’t piling in like in 2017.
    - perl4ever 6y ago
      There was an article I read on how arbitrage vs BTC was possible, despite it not being an ETF. I forget the details, it may have taken like 6 months to do the exchange for regulatory reasons. So professionals were making money while it was >BTC, until they overdid it and the premium went away. It seems reasonable to be patient because there's just a lot of lag in the system as it's currently set up. If you've ever paid attention to closed-end funds, you might have noticed how they can trade substantially over or under asset value for quite a while, but not forever.
      - qeternity 6y ago
        There’s no arbitrage in the strict sense but basically it’s just a straight convergence trade without a delivery mechanism. Just need funding, which is abundant today.
        perl4ever 6y ago
        There's no arbitrage in what sense? The article I read that called it arbitrage described it like this: "[Hedge funds] borrow Bitcoin, deposit the coins with GBTC in exchange for shares that are more valuable than the coins they bought, and they pocket that profit by selling the marked-up shares after a six-month lockup period expires." Unlike an ETF though, the shares can't be destroyed. And suddenly the premium went away, so probably some of the people who were counting on it to remain have quit now.
- k1rcher 6y ago
  That's a very good question, one that I don't have an answer to. "A very solid choice" was a very poor choice of phrasing. I was intending to generalize the reasoning behind the recent surges in value and popularity. My statement was more intended to be a critique on the current perception to the layman. I believe bitcoin and crypto as a whole should be looked on as a currency, rather than a get-quick-rich investment that absolutely anyone with a spare penny can leverage for their own profit.
- raziel2701 6y ago
  Bank of America had this[1] to say: “No good reason to own BTC unless you see prices going up. .. it is not tied to inflation, and remains exceptionally volatile, making it impractical as a store of wealth or payments mechanism. As such, the main.. argument for holding Bitcoin is.. sheer price appreciation” I haven't found a reason in favor of owning btc other than "number go up". [1] https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1372129001251221511 https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/13721290012512215...
  - imtringued 6y ago
    If everyone were honest about this then we wouldn't have to rehash the same criticism over and over again. Bitcoin is still a better gamble than a lottery ticket and I won't blame anyone for feeling that way. I just hate seeing deception and misinformation and generally scammy behavior, basically anyone who wants to turn the lottery into a negative sum bet as opposed to a zero sum bet.
  - ChainOfFools 6y ago
    "number go up" when did this meme take over from its original incarnation "to the moooon!"?
    - spiralx 6y ago
      Shortly after the "money printer go brrr" meme took off I guess.
dandanua 6y ago
And what is Bitcoin value without it being used as a currency?
kevinak 6y ago
Why is it flawed as a currency?

frongpik 6y ago

Imo, the logic of most investors is "Can I afford to lose 5% of my wealth? Heck, I can lose 10%!" So all the rich with zillions in assets invest what they can afford to lose, those 10%, and hold. If the rich top 1% owns 50% of the entire world's assets, then such is the target price of bitcoin - 5% of everything. At the moment, this everything is $100T. This gives us what, 250K per btc? Multiplied by expected inflation, say 2x.