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> Maybe the HN crowd has different problems in this area than the world-at-large, but "an unrealistic expectation of success in business" is not common among gr

> Maybe the HN crowd has different problems in this area than the world-at-large, but "an unrealistic expectation of success in business" is not common among grown-ups. Have you never met someone who opened a restaurant? Peter Thiel actually uses this as a talking point. The surest way to lose money is to open a restaurant, and yet there are always people lining up to do so.

mdip 6y ago
> Have you never met someone who opened a restaurant? Yes, two actually. Restaurants are incredibly difficult businesses to succeed in. But, to answer your question: my brother-in-law ran a pizza/sub restaurant in a small town, and a friend of mine ran a fancy restaurant in a resort town. Both of them are tricky situations. My brother-in-law sold his business after being moderately successful (he did it full time and made a living for himself, but it was a lot of work for what he took home). He sold to form a new business with his wife, which is very successful. My brother-in-law, though, had no loans and started the business while living with mom/dad so had it failed, he'd have been out his "life savings (at 22) with no paycheck coming in". He ended up with a business that could sustain itself and him, and did so for a few years, but just barely. My friend's fancy restaurant completely failed. His restaurant was one of the best places I've ever eaten[0], located in a lake-house town where my family has a vacation house. He lived upstairs with his family, and the place was packed during the summer, but he couldn't charge what he needed to charge to re-coupe the cost of the quality of food he served. His business failed, he moved out of town and went back to teaching but I believe he's opened up a new place out of state, recently. Did they both expect to be successful? Yes. And since I didn't know Andy (fancy place) prior to his restaurant, I can't say for sure what his thinking was going into it, but the first year he was open he admitted that he knew he was taking a huge risk -- there is literally no business between October and May, and previous fancy places like this have failed regularly in that city. It's a bummer -- this place was amazing. [0] It was a place you could go on the weekend and were bound to run into a local celebrity/basketball/football/baseball player; it busy/reservation only but small. He was only open Thu-Sun, everything locally sourced and the menu that day based on the best of what he could find (usually bought that morning).
carbonguy 6y ago
Are you making the argument that "people who think it's a good idea to start restaurants" are representative of "grown-ups?" I think you're right insofar as you point out that opening a restaurant is a fraught enterprise, but I don't really think that refutes the comment you're responding to - the overwhelming majority of adults don't open restaurants, even though there are always plenty of dreamers who think it's a good idea.
- mdip 6y ago
  > "people who think it's a good idea to start restaurants" are representative of "grown-ups?" I laughed at this one, but there's a lot to that statement. My theory on why restaurants fail at such a disproportionate amount compared to other, similar, businesses is that the average American, observing a restaurant hundreds of times in their life, feels they have a pretty good idea of what it takes to make one work. Looking at the difference between what the consumer pays for food versus what they pay for it at a restaurant gives the impression that there's a large margin, as well. Everyone, in one way or another, knows how to cook but few know how to cook well, at scale. All that to say, for some people, it probably is a really good idea to open a restaurant. There are examples of extremely successful restaurants all over the country and restaurateurs who are capable of taking a pile of cash, picking a location/staff and turning the pile into profits. It's easy to under-estimate the skills required to do this when a quick walk/drive leads you to a row of successful (struggling) restaurants, all packed to the gills[0] charging 10 times grocery prices for food/liquor and think "I can do that". And I'd agree with you -- that's not really representative of a "grown-up"[1] [0] Because you showed up there on Saturday just like everyone else. [1] I used that term over "adult" as it implies emotional maturity but wasn't sure it'd be clear. :)
- Judgmentality 6y ago
  My point was many adults do have unrealistic expectations of success. Sure, most people don't start restaurants, but an irrational amount of people do it thinking they'll make it. This is hardly unique to restaurants, this was just an obvious counterexample to poke holes in his argument. I live in San Francisco and see people start companies for the stupidest fucking shit all the time, convinced of their assured success because of their Ivy league degrees. I also watch as almost all of them fail (some just haven't had enough time to fail yet, but obviously one might surprise me some day). Questioning his assumptions is not meant to refute his argument, only to question it.

mdip 6y ago

> Have you never met someone who opened a restaurant? Yes, two actually. Restaurants are incredibly difficult businesses to succeed in. But, to answer your question: my brother-in-law ran a pizza/sub restaurant in a small town, and a friend of mine ran a fancy restaurant in a resort town. Both of them are tricky situations. My brother-in-law sold his business after being moderately successful (he did it full time and made a living for himself, but it was a lot of work for what he took home). He sold to form a new business with his wife, which is very successful. My brother-in-law, though, had no loans and started the business while living with mom/dad so had it failed, he'd have been out his "life savings (at 22) with no paycheck coming in". He ended up with a business that could sustain itself and him, and did so for a few years, but just barely. My friend's fancy restaurant completely failed. His restaurant was one of the best places I've ever eaten[0], located in a lake-house town where my family has a vacation house. He lived upstairs with his family, and the place was packed during the summer, but he couldn't charge what he needed to charge to re-coupe the cost of the quality of food he served. His business failed, he moved out of town and went back to teaching but I believe he's opened up a new place out of state, recently. Did they both expect to be successful? Yes. And since I didn't know Andy (fancy place) prior to his restaurant, I can't say for sure what his thinking was going into it, but the first year he was open he admitted that he knew he was taking a huge risk -- there is literally no business between October and May, and previous fancy places like this have failed regularly in that city. It's a bummer -- this place was amazing. [0] It was a place you could go on the weekend and were bound to run into a local celebrity/basketball/football/baseball player; it busy/reservation only but small. He was only open Thu-Sun, everything locally sourced and the menu that day based on the best of what he could find (usually bought that morning).

carbonguy 6y ago

Are you making the argument that "people who think it's a good idea to start restaurants" are representative of "grown-ups?" I think you're right insofar as you point out that opening a restaurant is a fraught enterprise, but I don't really think that refutes the comment you're responding to - the overwhelming majority of adults don't open restaurants, even though there are always plenty of dreamers who think it's a good idea.

mdip 6y ago
> "people who think it's a good idea to start restaurants" are representative of "grown-ups?" I laughed at this one, but there's a lot to that statement. My theory on why restaurants fail at such a disproportionate amount compared to other, similar, businesses is that the average American, observing a restaurant hundreds of times in their life, feels they have a pretty good idea of what it takes to make one work. Looking at the difference between what the consumer pays for food versus what they pay for it at a restaurant gives the impression that there's a large margin, as well. Everyone, in one way or another, knows how to cook but few know how to cook well, at scale. All that to say, for some people, it probably is a really good idea to open a restaurant. There are examples of extremely successful restaurants all over the country and restaurateurs who are capable of taking a pile of cash, picking a location/staff and turning the pile into profits. It's easy to under-estimate the skills required to do this when a quick walk/drive leads you to a row of successful (struggling) restaurants, all packed to the gills[0] charging 10 times grocery prices for food/liquor and think "I can do that". And I'd agree with you -- that's not really representative of a "grown-up"[1] [0] Because you showed up there on Saturday just like everyone else. [1] I used that term over "adult" as it implies emotional maturity but wasn't sure it'd be clear. :)
Judgmentality 6y ago
My point was many adults do have unrealistic expectations of success. Sure, most people don't start restaurants, but an irrational amount of people do it thinking they'll make it. This is hardly unique to restaurants, this was just an obvious counterexample to poke holes in his argument. I live in San Francisco and see people start companies for the stupidest fucking shit all the time, convinced of their assured success because of their Ivy league degrees. I also watch as almost all of them fail (some just haven't had enough time to fail yet, but obviously one might surprise me some day). Questioning his assumptions is not meant to refute his argument, only to question it.