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I was told Brexit would crash the British economy. And yet now it's the EU begging the UK for a vaccine, the rate of GBP/USD is nearly at a 5 year high, and the

I was told Brexit would crash the British economy. And yet now it's the EU begging the UK for a vaccine, the rate of GBP/USD is nearly at a 5 year high, and the UK has made serious progress vaccinating its population. Maybe the leavers were onto something?

a_humean 6y ago
Except goods exports are down 40%, large chunks of finance and services are being moved to Amsterdam and other EU capitals, and Northern Ireland is having trouble stocking its supermarket shelves while unionist paramilitary groups are renouncing the Good Friday Agreement. The developing story is that Brexit is a slow moving disaster for trade, services, and the stability in Northern Ireland. All of this was predicted.
- thu2111 6y ago
  Except goods exports are down 40% You're thinking of a few weeks in January. By February cross-border traffic was nearly back to normal (about 90% of similar traffic a year earlier but that's with lockdown, which surely reduces trade). large chunks of finance and services are being moved to Amsterdam No, only trading of EU shares which isn't a big market for London to begin with. London has a huge finance ecosystem with many components that have nothing to do with the EU at all. Northern Ireland is having trouble stocking its supermarket shelves That cuts both ways. There have also been problems with supermarket shelves in Europe: https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1395267/EU-news-supermarkets-shortages-Belgium-Brexit-UK-EU-trade-deal-latest-vn https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1395267/EU-news-supe... These problems are being resolved over time. One issue is that the EU has pulled out all the stops to make exports from the UK as painful as possible via various forms of malicious rule-enforcement. The UK has not retaliated in kind and in fact is waiving the rules for a while to let EU exporters learn the ropes. Examples of "malicious rule enforcement" are goods being rejected at the border due to a spelling error in the Latin name of a fish, sandwiches being confiscated from truck drivers, etc. The EU is essentially a protectionist bloc and has got very good at erecting trade barriers through complex certification and tax rules. There are no technical reasons for most of these new requirements. UK standards and enforcement have not changed from before. However EU has no interest in recognising the reality on the ground, they are interested in finding ways to incentivise membership and empower the Commission. We now see what other all other non-European countries have to pointlessly suffer through when trying to trade with the UK previously - not pleasant. One thing to bear in mind is that whilst the EU is increasing friction with UK/EU trade, it is now possible to reduce friction with other parts of the world. Already there has been a mini trade deal with the USA such that, for example, 25% tariffs on Scottish whisky are being dropped. So trade gets harder with Europe but is getting easier with other parts of the world. As for peace in Northern Ireland, it wasn't the UK that just weeks ago tried to impose a hard border there, was it? So much for the EU being dedicated to peace in NI. They give fine words but it lasted less than a month before they violated all those agreements and had to be forced to back down by a massive rebellion.
  - pityJuke 6y ago
    That supermarket article you are talking about specifically talks about a "British" goods supermarket abroad, which is to be expected, frankly. Regular supermarkets are fine? I believe NI's problems are specifically UK based, general goods supermarkets, which are the most common, having issues stocking shelves (Sainsbury's had to get items from SPAR, because SPAR are EU based and thus have the infrastructure/customs stuff sorted out).
    - hef19898 6y ago
      I talked to a company running a pan-EU FBA business. And they don't have any ustoms issues with Brexit. The way they solved it was to consolidate shipments to fixed dates /days, instead of peacemeal as was done before. And, more importantly, they work with a specialized customs agent and wait for customs clearance before sending the shipment. That increases inventory in transit and lead times, but being stuck at the border for an unpredictable amount of time does that as well. Not to mention the costs for having the trucks waiting there, usually somewhere between 150 and 250/300 Euros per day. I mean, it's not that companies didn't know what happens and prepare upfront.
  - 878654Tom 6y ago
    > A supermarket in Brussels specialising in British treats A supermarket purely dependent on British treats... I can attest that all other supermarkets are fully stocked and haven't noticed the slightest of Brexit.
  - a_humean 6y ago
    Its is a significant reduction both from the previous month and compared the previous year, so there is no sugar coating the figures by appealing to covid. While traffic is back up its not clear whether the same volume of goods is in transit on those lorries (most likely empty or partially loaded lorries returning to the EU). Its becoming increasingly clear that many small and medium sized export businesses are no longer viable, esp in food and agriculture. Comparing general supermarkets supplies to specialty retailers serving expat communities is a joke. Bravado about how great London is at finance doesn't dismiss that Amsterdam trading volumes have tripled and London's trading volumes have halved. Whining about how unfair and malicious the EU is is just the reality of how the EU treats all third party countries. Being outside the club is a bit miserable.
rvieira 6y ago
I don't know who tells you things, but the consensus by economists was: 1) Leaving on WTO rules would crash the British economy 2) Leaving with a deal would be better than 1), but still bad The UK is on 2) at the moment.
verytrivial 6y ago
Yes, the NHS has done a very good job at administering the vaccine programme. But delivery of goods on agreed terms is "begging" now? And your choice of GBP/USD window is rather convenient, as is the choice of currency. Have a peek at GBP/EUR over 10 years. As for the British economy, we're only 3.5 months in to trading on something approaching the new terms and the UK is already choking on the 'oven ready' Withdrawla Agreement and is flatly refusing to implement parts of it because it simply can't cope or perhaps never planned to act in good faith in the first place. We will see how this plays out with future trade negotiations -- the world is watching.

a_humean 6y ago

Except goods exports are down 40%, large chunks of finance and services are being moved to Amsterdam and other EU capitals, and Northern Ireland is having trouble stocking its supermarket shelves while unionist paramilitary groups are renouncing the Good Friday Agreement. The developing story is that Brexit is a slow moving disaster for trade, services, and the stability in Northern Ireland. All of this was predicted.

thu2111 6y ago
Except goods exports are down 40% You're thinking of a few weeks in January. By February cross-border traffic was nearly back to normal (about 90% of similar traffic a year earlier but that's with lockdown, which surely reduces trade). large chunks of finance and services are being moved to Amsterdam No, only trading of EU shares which isn't a big market for London to begin with. London has a huge finance ecosystem with many components that have nothing to do with the EU at all. Northern Ireland is having trouble stocking its supermarket shelves That cuts both ways. There have also been problems with supermarket shelves in Europe: https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1395267/EU-news-supermarkets-shortages-Belgium-Brexit-UK-EU-trade-deal-latest-vn https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1395267/EU-news-supe... These problems are being resolved over time. One issue is that the EU has pulled out all the stops to make exports from the UK as painful as possible via various forms of malicious rule-enforcement. The UK has not retaliated in kind and in fact is waiving the rules for a while to let EU exporters learn the ropes. Examples of "malicious rule enforcement" are goods being rejected at the border due to a spelling error in the Latin name of a fish, sandwiches being confiscated from truck drivers, etc. The EU is essentially a protectionist bloc and has got very good at erecting trade barriers through complex certification and tax rules. There are no technical reasons for most of these new requirements. UK standards and enforcement have not changed from before. However EU has no interest in recognising the reality on the ground, they are interested in finding ways to incentivise membership and empower the Commission. We now see what other all other non-European countries have to pointlessly suffer through when trying to trade with the UK previously - not pleasant. One thing to bear in mind is that whilst the EU is increasing friction with UK/EU trade, it is now possible to reduce friction with other parts of the world. Already there has been a mini trade deal with the USA such that, for example, 25% tariffs on Scottish whisky are being dropped. So trade gets harder with Europe but is getting easier with other parts of the world. As for peace in Northern Ireland, it wasn't the UK that just weeks ago tried to impose a hard border there, was it? So much for the EU being dedicated to peace in NI. They give fine words but it lasted less than a month before they violated all those agreements and had to be forced to back down by a massive rebellion.
- pityJuke 6y ago
  That supermarket article you are talking about specifically talks about a "British" goods supermarket abroad, which is to be expected, frankly. Regular supermarkets are fine? I believe NI's problems are specifically UK based, general goods supermarkets, which are the most common, having issues stocking shelves (Sainsbury's had to get items from SPAR, because SPAR are EU based and thus have the infrastructure/customs stuff sorted out).
  - hef19898 6y ago
    I talked to a company running a pan-EU FBA business. And they don't have any ustoms issues with Brexit. The way they solved it was to consolidate shipments to fixed dates /days, instead of peacemeal as was done before. And, more importantly, they work with a specialized customs agent and wait for customs clearance before sending the shipment. That increases inventory in transit and lead times, but being stuck at the border for an unpredictable amount of time does that as well. Not to mention the costs for having the trucks waiting there, usually somewhere between 150 and 250/300 Euros per day. I mean, it's not that companies didn't know what happens and prepare upfront.
- 878654Tom 6y ago
  > A supermarket in Brussels specialising in British treats A supermarket purely dependent on British treats... I can attest that all other supermarkets are fully stocked and haven't noticed the slightest of Brexit.
- a_humean 6y ago
  Its is a significant reduction both from the previous month and compared the previous year, so there is no sugar coating the figures by appealing to covid. While traffic is back up its not clear whether the same volume of goods is in transit on those lorries (most likely empty or partially loaded lorries returning to the EU). Its becoming increasingly clear that many small and medium sized export businesses are no longer viable, esp in food and agriculture. Comparing general supermarkets supplies to specialty retailers serving expat communities is a joke. Bravado about how great London is at finance doesn't dismiss that Amsterdam trading volumes have tripled and London's trading volumes have halved. Whining about how unfair and malicious the EU is is just the reality of how the EU treats all third party countries. Being outside the club is a bit miserable.

rvieira 6y ago

I don't know who tells you things, but the consensus by economists was: 1) Leaving on WTO rules would crash the British economy 2) Leaving with a deal would be better than 1), but still bad The UK is on 2) at the moment.

verytrivial 6y ago

Yes, the NHS has done a very good job at administering the vaccine programme. But delivery of goods on agreed terms is "begging" now? And your choice of GBP/USD window is rather convenient, as is the choice of currency. Have a peek at GBP/EUR over 10 years. As for the British economy, we're only 3.5 months in to trading on something approaching the new terms and the UK is already choking on the 'oven ready' Withdrawla Agreement and is flatly refusing to implement parts of it because it simply can't cope or perhaps never planned to act in good faith in the first place. We will see how this plays out with future trade negotiations -- the world is watching.