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They already make that? FSD is an optional upgrade. While I would agree the FSD path is a dangerous one, if they crack it they also instantly justify their sh

by tw04 6y ago

They already make that? FSD is an optional upgrade. While I would agree the FSD path is a dangerous one, if they crack it they also instantly justify their share price.

alkonaut 6y ago
I’m thinking they must be using a nontrivial fraction of their budget to develop self-driving tech. Money that could be used for advancing the advantage they already have. I think the fruitless pursuit of self driving will be what makes boring cars from traditional manufacturers catch up. Assuming no manufacturer reaches true full FSD within say 25-50 years, and the usable returns of such research diminishes, then the winning play would be spending as little as possible on it.
- marvin 6y ago
  It's not obvious that Tesla's FSD program will fail. If it succeeds, the investment will have done exactly what you describe - advancing the advantage Tesla already has.
  - jsight 6y ago
    Yep, and they appear to be doing it for less money than their competitors too.
  - XorNot 6y ago
    There's a strong tendency in the tech world - and elsewhere but less so - to point to failures as an absolute proof something won't work, and to similarly use early successes as overly strong signals of viability. An example of this would be the "obvious" superiority of micro-kernel OS designs compared to monoliths. Which is not at all how things actually panned out with Linux - but the problem was never about the architectural choice, it was about the fact that OS designs are hard - and you need to do the work to solve all the little problems which crop up with your big idea. FSD is essentially going through the same thing, but the stakes are higher - FSD can kill people as a basic part of its function. We were always in a countdown till we started getting the first self-driving casualties. This is not of course to suggest that what Tesla is doing right now is okay, but I'd sure be cautious trying to read the winner of the next 20 years into it.
- deleted 6y ago
  [deleted]
- codeulike 6y ago
  Tesla and SpaceX both take huge gambles on innovation. Thats kindof the point of both companies existence. Yes the FSD initiative could fail in many ways. Starship might be a dead end. Innovation is a gamble.
- ericd 6y ago
  I don’t think they’re very bottlenecked by available money at this point.

by tw04 6y ago

They already make that? FSD is an optional upgrade. While I would agree the FSD path is a dangerous one, if they crack it they also instantly justify their share price.

alkonaut 6y ago

I’m thinking they must be using a nontrivial fraction of their budget to develop self-driving tech. Money that could be used for advancing the advantage they already have. I think the fruitless pursuit of self driving will be what makes boring cars from traditional manufacturers catch up. Assuming no manufacturer reaches true full FSD within say 25-50 years, and the usable returns of such research diminishes, then the winning play would be spending as little as possible on it.

marvin 6y ago
It's not obvious that Tesla's FSD program will fail. If it succeeds, the investment will have done exactly what you describe - advancing the advantage Tesla already has.
- jsight 6y ago
  Yep, and they appear to be doing it for less money than their competitors too.
- XorNot 6y ago
  There's a strong tendency in the tech world - and elsewhere but less so - to point to failures as an absolute proof something won't work, and to similarly use early successes as overly strong signals of viability. An example of this would be the "obvious" superiority of micro-kernel OS designs compared to monoliths. Which is not at all how things actually panned out with Linux - but the problem was never about the architectural choice, it was about the fact that OS designs are hard - and you need to do the work to solve all the little problems which crop up with your big idea. FSD is essentially going through the same thing, but the stakes are higher - FSD can kill people as a basic part of its function. We were always in a countdown till we started getting the first self-driving casualties. This is not of course to suggest that what Tesla is doing right now is okay, but I'd sure be cautious trying to read the winner of the next 20 years into it.
deleted 6y ago
[deleted]
codeulike 6y ago
Tesla and SpaceX both take huge gambles on innovation. Thats kindof the point of both companies existence. Yes the FSD initiative could fail in many ways. Starship might be a dead end. Innovation is a gamble.
ericd 6y ago
I don’t think they’re very bottlenecked by available money at this point.