3 ms·

> still didn't kill anyone That's not a compelling argument, when the premise is misleading. While you (and others) split hairs over what "kill" means, people

> still didn't kill anyone That's not a compelling argument, when the premise is misleading. While you (and others) split hairs over what "kill" means, people actually die from it. https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/radiation-from-fukushima-disaster-still-affects-32-million-japanese https://ourworld.unu.edu/en/radiation-from-fukushima-disaste... https://world.wng.org/2014/09/locals_suffer_long_term_effects_of_fukushima_meltdown https://world.wng.org/2014/09/locals_suffer_long_term_effect...

Robotbeat 6y ago
"Psychological effect" is not very convincing, especially since much of the psychological effect is due to paranoid over-zealous evacuations. Nuclear being blamed for the psychological problems caused by people (including officials in particular) being irrationally afraid of nuclear. People directly die from natural gas explosions or falling off roofs installing solar panels pretty regularly. There was an actual tsunami that killed thousands of people directly. And worsened, slightly by climate change ocean level rise (by us refusing to decommission fossil fuel plants).
SCLeo 6y ago
If we scale up nuclear by 10 times, so that all power generation is handled by nuclear power plants, and we are extremely unlucky that we have 10 Fukushimas every year, and even if you count all the 1700 (non-radiation-related) death/Fukushima, we are still at 17,000 death/year, which is significantly lower than the number of death caused by fossil fuel power generation. (A quick Google search yielded 8.7 million/year). Hell, even if you count all the people that have to evacuate for each Fukushima, we are still only at 4 million people moved/year vs. 8.7 million people death/year with fossil fuel power generation. There are three more things to keep in mind: 1. I don't think we will have anywhere near 10 Fukushimas every year. 2. A lot of those stressed related death and evacuations are due to overly precautionary measures. 3. Death is much worse than having to relocate. Yes, nuclear power generation does kill. However, the point is, it is significantly safer than fossil fuel.
- kergonath 6y ago
  If I am not mistaken, this is a massive under-estimation of the number of deaths related to fossil fuel, as I do not think it includes things like victims of freak weather events (droughts, hurricanes, heat waves) that are a consequence of burning fossil fuels. AFAIK the 8 million figure includes only deaths from direct pollution.
kergonath 6y ago
This is pointless. Everything we do kills people. The choice we can make is between something that kills more and something that kills less, amongst other tradeoffs. Quantifying the number of deaths or cancers in this case tells you nothing relevant to make a decision or risk assessment: what are the costs of the alternatives? The problem with pressurised water reactors is that failure is a very low probability but potentially very large consequences event. The advantage of fossil fuels (for public acceptance) is whilst the risk and the number of deaths are much higher (by a couple of orders of magnitude), the effects are spread out across space and time, and so are easy to ignore in our daily lives. All this is a tragic misunderstanding of the situation we’re in. Ultimately, 100% renewables is a worthy goal. In the short to long term, shutting down nuclear power plants means burning fossil fuel. Climate is already spiralling out of control. The time to clean up our acts was 50 years ago, and now every decade we spend burning gas, oil, and coal is something we will pay dearly. So yeah, nuclear is not ideal. It’s still part of the best strategy we have to produce clean energy.
- Supermancho 6y ago
  > The choice we can make is between something that kills more and something that kills less, amongst other tradeoffs. > Quantifying the number of deaths or cancers in this case tells you nothing relevant to make a decision or risk assessment The two conflicting viewpoints posited in the same paragraph, seems ironic. The first is the issue, but requires veracity. The second is nonsensical. Humans make these decisions every day.
  - kergonath 6y ago
    This is not contradictory. If you want to compare two solutions, you need to have a number for both. So in itself a number you assign to nuclear energy is useless (for the purpose of demonstrating that nuclear is either terrible or bad as an energy production source), unless you contrast it with the equivalent for the alternative. Humans make a lot of stupid decisions rooted in gut feeling and prejudice all the time. A small subset of these decisions involve long-term industrial strategy at a national level or the life of millions of people. For these decisions we ought to do better.

Robotbeat 6y ago

"Psychological effect" is not very convincing, especially since much of the psychological effect is due to paranoid over-zealous evacuations. Nuclear being blamed for the psychological problems caused by people (including officials in particular) being irrationally afraid of nuclear. People directly die from natural gas explosions or falling off roofs installing solar panels pretty regularly. There was an actual tsunami that killed thousands of people directly. And worsened, slightly by climate change ocean level rise (by us refusing to decommission fossil fuel plants).

SCLeo 6y ago

If we scale up nuclear by 10 times, so that all power generation is handled by nuclear power plants, and we are extremely unlucky that we have 10 Fukushimas every year, and even if you count all the 1700 (non-radiation-related) death/Fukushima, we are still at 17,000 death/year, which is significantly lower than the number of death caused by fossil fuel power generation. (A quick Google search yielded 8.7 million/year). Hell, even if you count all the people that have to evacuate for each Fukushima, we are still only at 4 million people moved/year vs. 8.7 million people death/year with fossil fuel power generation. There are three more things to keep in mind: 1. I don't think we will have anywhere near 10 Fukushimas every year. 2. A lot of those stressed related death and evacuations are due to overly precautionary measures. 3. Death is much worse than having to relocate. Yes, nuclear power generation does kill. However, the point is, it is significantly safer than fossil fuel.

kergonath 6y ago
If I am not mistaken, this is a massive under-estimation of the number of deaths related to fossil fuel, as I do not think it includes things like victims of freak weather events (droughts, hurricanes, heat waves) that are a consequence of burning fossil fuels. AFAIK the 8 million figure includes only deaths from direct pollution.

kergonath 6y ago

This is pointless. Everything we do kills people. The choice we can make is between something that kills more and something that kills less, amongst other tradeoffs. Quantifying the number of deaths or cancers in this case tells you nothing relevant to make a decision or risk assessment: what are the costs of the alternatives? The problem with pressurised water reactors is that failure is a very low probability but potentially very large consequences event. The advantage of fossil fuels (for public acceptance) is whilst the risk and the number of deaths are much higher (by a couple of orders of magnitude), the effects are spread out across space and time, and so are easy to ignore in our daily lives. All this is a tragic misunderstanding of the situation we’re in. Ultimately, 100% renewables is a worthy goal. In the short to long term, shutting down nuclear power plants means burning fossil fuel. Climate is already spiralling out of control. The time to clean up our acts was 50 years ago, and now every decade we spend burning gas, oil, and coal is something we will pay dearly. So yeah, nuclear is not ideal. It’s still part of the best strategy we have to produce clean energy.

Supermancho 6y ago
> The choice we can make is between something that kills more and something that kills less, amongst other tradeoffs. > Quantifying the number of deaths or cancers in this case tells you nothing relevant to make a decision or risk assessment The two conflicting viewpoints posited in the same paragraph, seems ironic. The first is the issue, but requires veracity. The second is nonsensical. Humans make these decisions every day.
- kergonath 6y ago
  This is not contradictory. If you want to compare two solutions, you need to have a number for both. So in itself a number you assign to nuclear energy is useless (for the purpose of demonstrating that nuclear is either terrible or bad as an energy production source), unless you contrast it with the equivalent for the alternative. Humans make a lot of stupid decisions rooted in gut feeling and prejudice all the time. A small subset of these decisions involve long-term industrial strategy at a national level or the life of millions of people. For these decisions we ought to do better.