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> The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery

> The industry shift towards electric vehicles is because it's finally becoming profitable to make them. This is largely due to a dramatic reduction in battery costs which is driven by R&D for smartphones, not cars. Personally I don't believe Tesla has much to do with it. As much as I agree with the rest of your comment, I have to disagree with this part. Yes, there is a shift towards profitability with electric vehicles now and that has a lot to do with battery advancements from smartphones. But EVs still aren't exactly profitable, and when they are it's usually because of tax credits (granted that still counts, but it's important to mention). It's important to remember traditional automobile manufacturers have decades of accumulated knowledge from spending hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, on R&D for the internal combustion engine. Their processes are set up for it. Their tooling is set up for it. And more importantly, their business model which almost always focuses on maintenance costs is set up for it. It's like how Kodak invented the digital camera, but decided to continue with their legacy business because they were already set up for it. There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them.

rsynnott 6y ago
> There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them. This feels vaguely ahistorical. The best-selling electric car platform in Europe today is the Renault Z-E platform (or at least it was; VW may have overtaken by now). That platform was announced in 2009 or so, with the first cars in 2011, and the first Zoe (the popular car based on the platform) in 2012. The Nissan Leaf came out in 2010. The Tesla Model S came out in 2012. So given that, it's hard to see what Tesla had to do with it, really. Some of the most popular models came to market BEFORE Tesla (if you ignore the roadster, a contemporary of the Z-E concepts, which you almost certainly should).
- Pyramus 6y ago
  I'm a Tesla skeptic like parent but I believe parent is right: Tesla has advanced the EV market by maybe 3-5 years. You are correct about timings. What you are missing is 1) Adoption and perception. The public and mainstream media love 'EV Jesus' and his perceived dedication to 'the mission'. 2) User experience, in particular charging. Tesla still today has the biggest charger network and charging is a crucial remedy for range anxiety.
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    Honestly if either the brand or charging were as big a deal as all that, I'd expect them to be doing better in Europe. The US seems to be the only remaining territory where they're the market leader, and they may be a bit stickier there, but it's not clear that EU sales of, say, the Zoe or id3 would be any different in the parallel universe where Tesla never existed. Those sell because they've hit a price/range point, and that's more due to the relentless slow progress of battery technology than anything else. Not to say they're not a significant electric car manufacturer, but "coming third in the biggest western market, behind Renault, who apparently still exist" is not a great argument for them being either a market leader or having a particularly sticky brand.
- chii 6y ago
  And the nokia phones were much more popular, before apple made the iphone. The disruptive product doesn't have to be the first.
  - rsynnott 6y ago
    I don't see how that works as an analogy _at all_. The iPhone lead to a complete change in what a phone _was_, with the Nokia view of a phone (and even of a smartphone) fading out. By contrast, a Leaf or Zoe that you buy today is just a better version of the Leaf or Zoe you could have bought before the Model S came out.
mikestew 6y ago
Their tooling is set up for it. You know what else "their tooling is set up" for? Being changed in a short period of time for whatever the next hotness is. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them. How do you reconcile that statement with the fact that while folks were waiting for Tesla to fill their Model S pre-orders, we were already driving a Nissan Leaf? The Leaf was going to happen whether or not Tesla ever built a single car, or even if Tesla never existed. I mean it's nice that Tesla fans jumped on the EV bandwagon, even if a little late, but let's not pretend Tesla wasn't late to the production EV game.
- elif 6y ago
  I paid $5000 for my leaf. Teslas maintain most of their retail value. There's a reason. If leafs were the archetypical EV, public perception of EVs would be leafs. Which are garbage.

rsynnott 6y ago

> There are many things I dislike about Tesla. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them. This feels vaguely ahistorical. The best-selling electric car platform in Europe today is the Renault Z-E platform (or at least it was; VW may have overtaken by now). That platform was announced in 2009 or so, with the first cars in 2011, and the first Zoe (the popular car based on the platform) in 2012. The Nissan Leaf came out in 2010. The Tesla Model S came out in 2012. So given that, it's hard to see what Tesla had to do with it, really. Some of the most popular models came to market BEFORE Tesla (if you ignore the roadster, a contemporary of the Z-E concepts, which you almost certainly should).

Pyramus 6y ago
I'm a Tesla skeptic like parent but I believe parent is right: Tesla has advanced the EV market by maybe 3-5 years. You are correct about timings. What you are missing is 1) Adoption and perception. The public and mainstream media love 'EV Jesus' and his perceived dedication to 'the mission'. 2) User experience, in particular charging. Tesla still today has the biggest charger network and charging is a crucial remedy for range anxiety.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  Honestly if either the brand or charging were as big a deal as all that, I'd expect them to be doing better in Europe. The US seems to be the only remaining territory where they're the market leader, and they may be a bit stickier there, but it's not clear that EU sales of, say, the Zoe or id3 would be any different in the parallel universe where Tesla never existed. Those sell because they've hit a price/range point, and that's more due to the relentless slow progress of battery technology than anything else. Not to say they're not a significant electric car manufacturer, but "coming third in the biggest western market, behind Renault, who apparently still exist" is not a great argument for them being either a market leader or having a particularly sticky brand.
chii 6y ago
And the nokia phones were much more popular, before apple made the iphone. The disruptive product doesn't have to be the first.
- rsynnott 6y ago
  I don't see how that works as an analogy _at all_. The iPhone lead to a complete change in what a phone _was_, with the Nokia view of a phone (and even of a smartphone) fading out. By contrast, a Leaf or Zoe that you buy today is just a better version of the Leaf or Zoe you could have bought before the Model S came out.

mikestew 6y ago

Their tooling is set up for it. You know what else "their tooling is set up" for? Being changed in a short period of time for whatever the next hotness is. But I genuinely believe they are responsible for bringing EVs to market ~3 years before it would have happened without them. How do you reconcile that statement with the fact that while folks were waiting for Tesla to fill their Model S pre-orders, we were already driving a Nissan Leaf? The Leaf was going to happen whether or not Tesla ever built a single car, or even if Tesla never existed. I mean it's nice that Tesla fans jumped on the EV bandwagon, even if a little late, but let's not pretend Tesla wasn't late to the production EV game.

elif 6y ago
I paid $5000 for my leaf. Teslas maintain most of their retail value. There's a reason. If leafs were the archetypical EV, public perception of EVs would be leafs. Which are garbage.